More Lies From The Left
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-08-27 09:12
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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More Lies From The Left
 

It never does stop, you know...

To all of the above, the moocher class -- this election year’s agitprop -- is the country’s biggest problem. It’s not. By claiming that it is, Republicans do a disservice to the party and to the national debate.

....

The U.S. in fiscal 2012 will spend about $210 billion on food stamps, unemployment insurance and welfare. Add in Medicaid and the tab swells to about $485 billion. Still, it’s small beer compared with the $1.3 trillion the U.S. will spend on Social Security and Medicare alone. Include $700 billion for defense, and the moocher class’s bounty looks even smaller.

Oh really?  I'll accept the numbers, as they're close enough for government work.

But Medicare and Medicaid are not "small beer."  And they are the moocher class tonic, not Social Security.

Why?  Because you paid less than 3% of your wages into Medicare, yet medical cost on a Federal expenditure basis (gross) has risen over 9% annually from 1980 to today, with no end in sight.  You paid in zero to Medicaid, incidentally, and its growth is in the double-digits in essentially every state, with some topping 20% this year.

To put this in perspective Medicare and Medicaid, together, are the majority of the deficit (~$820 billion last year.)  And they're growing at a rate that will eclipse the entire federal budget within 15 years.

Of course that won't happen; downward pressure will come one way or another.  Some of it will come by trying to force the states to pick up more and more of Medicare.  Some of the rest will come by "screwing" seniors.

But neither political party is talking about where the problem is really coming from, which is the medical industry that has managed to get passed myriad laws enabling monopoly and forced cost-shifting behavior, all of it on the back of the "bleeding heart" bull**** that comes out of mendacious goofs such as Bloomberg's editorial desk.

The simple fact of the matter is that the real issues facing this country are all pretty-much found in the medical and energy complexes.  Protection of the medical complex is where our deficit has come from more than anywhere else, with energy right behind it.  This in turn has led the government to permit and in fact promote serial bubbles and leverage expansion so that people can feel ok even as they are asset-stripped to support the continual expansion of these industries' reach into our pockets, and when we attempt to push back we're sold laws that then cement the hook in our wallet.

The response was more and more borrowing and more and more leverage, but now we've hit the wall on that.  This was, under any rigorous analysis, the root of the 2007/08 crisis and it hasn't gone away as nobody is addressing it.

Unfortunately the Republican party isn't addressing it either, and neither are the Libertarians.  The Tea Party won't touch it, and neither will the "organized left."

Bloomberg argues that we are given "shibboleths" from the right on the budget and deficit, but they offer nothing other than shibboleths on the left as well, ignoring the true cause of the problem.  There's no arguing with the arithmetic -- a line-item on a budget that goes from $53 billion to $820 billion over the space of 30 years is clearly where the problem lies.  Overlay that with the debt curves and it's obvious what government policy has promoted under both Democrat and Republican administrations, and further, that both parties are simply hurling mud to avoid having to take on the fact that they're both equally complicit.

Good luck to Bloomberg's View -- the outcome of these policies is quite clear -- it's bankruptcy and forced retraction of these programs.  Sure, today we can borrow for 10 years at 1.6%, but that presumes we intend to ever pay it back.  We never have before, which means that such "borrowing" is in fact nothing more than intentional dilution of the people's purchasing power, and that in turn means that the lower and middle classes will continue to get screwed blind by these "policies."

It's simple arithmetic folks -- specifically, division.

I suggest that The View's editors go back to elementary school.

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Bsfootprint
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Ah, but Social Security was the camel's nose. Expecting the state to take care of you (even if you 'paid in' to the plan) is one of ways this mess got rolling.

Edit: I don't consider SS recipients 'moochers' but the money's gone, so they're taking money sourced from those paying in (at the bottom of the pyramid) -- they implicitly support a system of wealth transfer and are living in a dream world. A Ponzi scheme is a Ponzi scheme, after all.

Those who have paid Social Security taxes during their lifetime should be angry at the individuals and class who deceived them and effected the theft: politicians, and themselves as voters who supported the vast expansion of entitlements and deficits over the last *mumble* decades... Because they wanted the impossible.
smiley

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Samadams
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Let's not let that charge about the Defense budget go by without comment. Here's mine - this is the classic "free rider" program: you get its benefits without paying a dime for it, simply because (in this case) you live within certain borders. The billionaire that pays $25 million/year in taxes gets as much benefit from the Defense budget as the poor person who receives welfare, free Medicaid and food stamps (or whatever euphemism of the week that one wants to call free food). So, here's my proposal for making this a fair calculation: take a portion of the DoD budget (and CIA, NSA, HSA, FBI, etc. - any Department or Agency involved with national security) that is equal to the percentage of adults who receive more benefits from the federal government than they pay in, and add that portion to the amount that the FSA is getting from the "makers" in our society. After all, much of the reason we have a very large DoD budget is to protect oil and other natural resources that are needed by the FSA to live (on our dime, of course).

While Romney is far from my favorite candidate in the world, Obama is certainly my least favorite - and if we don't get rid of him, he'll drive our economy into the ground about as fast as it could be done. Why? Because Obama panders to the FSA, he IS one of them himself and has been for most of his life. At least Romney will unleash industry to drill and refine oil and natural gas here, thus creating jobs, necessarily raising tax revenue and helping us to reduce our dependence on foreign oil. Is this one thing all that we need to fix our problems? Hell, no - but it will be a big step in the right direction. Also, I firmly believe that he'll significantly reduce regulations which, combined with a repeal of Obamacare, will lead businesses to hire more people, thus reinforcing the oil boom benefits.
Mannfm11
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Quote:
I suggest that The View's editors go back to elementary school


I suggest he go see one of those mental deprogrammers.

NYC has a budget nearly twice what the state of Texas'. Our news is coming out of a venue that borders on fantasy. Texas has never needed a bailout. Point being these figures don't register in a place like NYC. But, $485 billion is a significant amount when you measure it against the productive class. If there are 140 million jobs, then it amounts to $3500 a person. I would suspect that is nearly 2 monthly after tax checks for a sizable number of Americans. The bankers don't produce this income. They are extractive industries, like taxes.

There needs to be a news industry in the USA that isn't based East of the Hudson River and as far as that goes, west of Nevada. Of course DC would also have to be excluded along with maybe Chicago and maybe we would get a right perspective.

Take the trillion dollar suck of Wall Street and the banks out of NYC and maybe their perspective changes. If Bloomberg tried to run for President as a Republican and I was a card carrying member, I would insist he was expelled. This is not an American perspective we get out of this outfit, but a fascist one. Population is to be managed like livestock. The nation is to be run to keep the banks going, piling debt on top of debt and continuing to extract what they can get.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Bsfootprint
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Mannfm11 wrote..
There needs to be a news industry in the USA that isn't based East of the Hudson River and as far as that goes, west of Nevada. Of course DC would also have to be excluded along with maybe Chicago and maybe we would get a right perspective.
It's here, it's growing, and it's called the Internet. Citizen journalists? We haz em.

Why do you think the MSM is so ****ing scared? Why do you think mainstream 'intellectuals' and media pundits despise the blogsphere so, as their personal Titanic just bounced off a huge iceberg?

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Genesis
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But The Internet produces nearly -- or actually -- nothing on its own.

It's a distribution medium, not a productive one.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
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What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Mannfm11
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Bsfootprint wrote..
Ah, but Social Security was the camel's nose.


Truth be known, Social Security is probably necessary in a modern economy, if we are going to limit debt and it was pay as you go. In an economy with so much debt, it wouldn't be mathematically possible for everyone to acquire a significant debt claim against the system. The observation would be possibly correct if we were still mainly a rural/agrarian society.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Bsfootprint
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@genesis: I agree (poor choice of words on my part) but it's the medium that enables the destruction of the stranglehold on news and information. I could have said 'blogosphere' but it's not all that accurate either. Is Twitter a blog? Facebook? (Well, yes, sort of, and no, not really.)

So yes, the Internet by itself isn't the source but it's being used in a myriad of ways by countless individuals to hasten the demise of the MSM's monopoly.

The MSM wants to reign in this destruction, of course, via their good friend the state, but I'm not so sure it's going to work.

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Bsfootprint
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Mannfm11 wrote..
Truth be known, Social Security is probably necessary in a modern economy, if we are going to limit debt and it was pay as you go. In an economy with so much debt, it wouldn't be mathematically possible for everyone to acquire a significant debt claim against the system. The observation would be possibly correct if we were still mainly a rural/agrarian society.
Ah, necessity, the mother of intervention.

Saying something is necessary doesn't make it right, good, or just.

I need food, but my need doesn't justify (legally or morally) my stealing it from you except in the most dire of circumstances.

Edit: I've spoken with my 80-something years old mother about the realities of Social Security, repeatedly -- no mater what logic, facts, or argument I present, it all comes down to minor variations of these responses: "I paid in to it" - "I need it" - "the rich don't pay enough taxes" - etc. She never tries to refute any points with facts, logic, or reason. She's well and truly steeped in the quasi-socialist religion that's been drilled into her head since she was a kid. And I find that is the case with most people of her generation.

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Genesis
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I totally disagree on the "necessity" of Social Security.

Those who ass**** their kids and wind up with nobody, or choose to have nobody, have made their choice. IF they also have no personal resources that too is their choice.

Nature provides the means to avoid all of these problems. We then destroy the incentives for that avoidance by making "easy" (and tax advantaged) all sorts of behavior that negates what nature provided for. Then we bitch when the advantages disappear.

That's like complaining that if you stick a shotgun in your mouth and pull the trigger you will blow your brains out. The obvious response to that is "duh!" but nobody wants to hear that.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Uppity_peasant
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Samadams wrote..
At least Romney will unleash industry to drill and refine oil and natural gas here, thus creating jobs, necessarily raising tax revenue and helping us to reduce our dependence on foreign oil.


No, he won't. The bureaucrazy is in place to keep the regulatory gains of the Left (and the industry itself) in place until well after Oromney is gone. AND the favorite weapon of the Watermelons, lawsuit after lawsuit after lawsuit after lawsuit, will still be intact.

You should plan for the energy thumbscrews to be tightened further. Oromney WOULD slow down the trend (the coal industry would benefit somewhat). You can bet that if the Little Prince is re-elected with $4 gasoline, all us peasants are in big trouble as far as the traveling tax goes.

We have similar moronic bureaucrazies running the healthcare scam. Plan for home health care, because you'll probably have to become your own physical shade-tree mechanic unless it's something major.

But don't worry - our government overlords and their enforcers (PROFESSIONAL enforcers!!!) will have all the fuel and health care they need to carry on with their difficult and thankless jobs! ((At gunpoint out of YOUR ass, peasant. BTW - you agreed that we should raise SS taxes. Dincha? Dincha? http://tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-w....


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If it's true that "assault weapons" are "weapons of war" and don't belong on the streets of America, why do the police need them? Who are the police at war with?
Jal
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Who is getting more and more free money from the gov.?

Quote:
The simple fact of the matter is that the real issues facing this country are all pretty-much found in the medical and energy complexes. Protection of the medical complex is where our deficit has come from more than anywhere else, with energy right behind it. This in turn has led the government to permit and in fact promote serial bubbles and leverage expansion so that people can feel ok even as they are asset-stripped to support the continual expansion of these industries' reach into our pockets, and when we attempt to push back we're sold laws that then cement the hook in our wallet.


Yep!

J6P is only the conduit for the medical industry to get more and more money from the gov..
Increasing the bureaucrazy to try to regulate the cash flow is not the answer.

Decreasing the cash flow is the answer for fixing the medicare system. Its the same answer for fixing the cost of education.

Debtpie
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Quote:
"“Mitt Romney does not believe it is the government’s responsibility to provide people with free stuff,” Romney campaign press secretary Andrea Saul wrote in an e-mail to CNN." http://thechart.blogs.cnn.com/2012/08/27....


Medicare is the government takeover/intrusion/socialization of the health insurance/care system for seniors that transfers insane amounts of money from the young (and unborn) to pay for the health care of a very specific group...ie...it's a socialist, wealth transferring government program designed to give "Free Stuff" to geezers.

When are the Republicans going to call for the repeal of this horrible anti-freemarket system and allow seniors to buy their health insurance in an open market where they will get better care and better prices!

Surely Mittens ("We Must Repeal Obama's Socialist takeover of the Health Insurance system") Romney is calling for an end to Medicare as well as ObamaCare?

Sigh...Mittens is promising to "Defend and Strengthen" Medicare by ending ObamaCare and pumping more money into Medicare...

So it's "Free Stuff" for the geezers and the "Free Market" for the rest of us...

Quote:
(Romney's) reforms include allowing(aka forcing) consumers (aka.everyone except Geezers) to purchase insurance across state lines; empowering individuals and small business to form purchasing pools; and encouraging “Consumer Reports” type ratings on insurance plans.



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A Leader, or an Opportunist? "A leader has the capacity of vision, the ability to see where things are headed before people in general see those things." Mitt Romney --- DebtPie's definition: a leader decides where "things" should head and "leads" us there.

Debtpie
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Quote:
I totally disagree on the "necessity" of Social Security.

Those who ass**** their kids and wind up with nobody, or choose to have nobody, have made their choice. IF they also have no personal resources that too is their choice


SS as it is today...I somewhat agree with you...but SS as an insurance plan; that's what I want.

Social Security Insurance (note insurance) is a good idea to protect seniors from dying in the streets during their final years...but that's all it should be...insurance against extreme poverty for the very old...I don't have a problem contributing to such an insurance plan.

What I do have a problem with is SS as a guaranteed pension plan; which is what we have today! Where the money is doled out to everyone over a certain age regardless of their financial status; with many taking that "extra cash" to the casinos or using it to pay for cruises and what not.

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A Leader, or an Opportunist? "A leader has the capacity of vision, the ability to see where things are headed before people in general see those things." Mitt Romney --- DebtPie's definition: a leader decides where "things" should head and "leads" us there.
Genesis
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Social Security isn't much of a "lottery" even for the wealthy, as the benefit caps off and it also declines with increasing contribution and earnings.

In addition, it's not the problem. Medicare and Medicaid is. Social Security can be easily fixed simply by indexing the elegibility age to longevity.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Mortgageguymn
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The only way problems like this can ever get fixed is indirectly. It's like with student loans. The OWS crowd would like (or thinks it would like) subsidized student loan interest rates and conditional loan forgiveness. It would also like (or could be convinced to like) allowing student loans to be dischargeable in bankruptcy. They don't understand that these approaches are diametrically opposed - with the latter being good and the former being bad.

Step one in fixing the medical inflation problem is bringing it all into the light by demanding "fair billing" - requiring that charges be assessed equally without regard to who is paying them. Only after that can attention be turned to the problems inherent in third party payers and the problem of cost-shifting.
Fair billing should appeal to the self-reliant and self-employed who are angry that cash buyers are billed more than an insurance company. Fair billing should appeal to those who have employer-provided insurance because they're PO'd about being sold on "80/20" plans where their "20%" is based on an inflated phony price.

Karl, All of your prescriptions for the medical industry make sense to me, but we'll probably have to pass them in pieces.

Correction: Step one is repealing Obamacare. Then on to the rest...
Xtbjeff
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I did some spreadsheet work of my own. I took my starting salary and ending salary over my working career, and used constant percentage raises between those limits. (That underestimates the total because raises were better in the early years.) Then I multiplied the annual salary by 3%, and put it into a SS “lockbox”. Then I assumed 7% return on that “investment”, which is pretty much what the states are assuming. Just like exponents work for debt, it also works for savings. That gives a very nice piece of change after 45 years. Assuming the 7% return continues, that would easily yield what SS promises for quite a few years.

Unfortunately, there was no “lockbox”, no “investment”, and we know the 7% return is just BS.
Mannfm11
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The problem with Social Security Karl is the ass****ing happened a long time ago. Our generation paid a 15.6% tax most of our career. My problem with SS isn't the pension, but the fund.

If you figure it would take $150,000 to produce a life annuity of $1100 a month at age 65, for 300 million people, we are looking at about $45 trillion in debt or some kind of income producing assets. Split that in half so that you take away funding for those that haven't accumulated yet. That is still $22.5 trillion or 150% of GDP. Prior to this bubble, the stock market has always been limited to 80% of GDP in value at its peak. In theory, that would make up half the pool. But, being a small minority own the stock market to a great degree, it doesn't apply to the masses. Throw in inflation protection and the amounts go up massively.

Alternative? There are probably plenty. One would be to limit inflation, which is the bug in the soup. My opinion of Social Security is the fund has been used as a tax revenue and the fund was and is a fiction. It is also an income tax and it would probably serve us better if it was a consumption tax.

I agree with Bs that it was the camels nose, in that it established big government in our lives. That and the wars. It could be said that the 15% tax is just as extractive as the pile of debt it would take for Americans to fund the program.

One of the things I have a hard time wrapping my mind around is the concept of compound real values. I have a degree in finance, can operate a 12C upside down and right side up or I can do it with a pencil, but there is solid evidence that compound interest collapses and we are merely using reduced monetary values to pretend to support the structure. Depressions are mathematically necessary, something that seems to elude Ben Bernanke and many in the past. Social Security got a foothold in the depression, because life savings went up in smoke in a myriad of speculative ventures and bad debts. Not many care for Social Security when their 401K is making 20% a year as it was in the 1990's or the 1920's, but let it disappear or flatten out as it did following those times.

To prove my point, merely take your 12C and put in a dollar and compound it at 2% to the 2000th power and see what you get. Last time I did it, I came up with a sum greater than the cash balances around the world combined. The real production can't pay the debt when the debt service has compounded to a greater sum than the amount produced out of productive enterprise.

One thing is certain. You can only pretend something is there that isn't there until reality eventually interrupts. I have a check book. Chances are, at least in the past, I can pretend I have money and write a check. If I get money before the check reaches the bank and make a deposit, the procedure works. But, sans a balance at the bank, reality interrupts and if I don't get busy, the Sherriff could show up at my door. Numbers on a piece of paper mean nothing if there isn't something to back it up and I believe this is where we are today.

There are comparisons of other plans to Social Security. They rest on compound values. One benefit of the gold standard is compound values can't be faked. The real compound is the fact that as the supply of goods and services increase, the prices of such goods and services fall. So, you don't have to pretend your dollars have babies to make up for the growth of monetary purchasing power. This bleeds over into a different argument, but when saving for retirement what one ends up with in the end has nothing to do with the numbers on the paper, but the purchasing power of what you have. Ask any Mexican over 50 years old what the numbers on the paper mean.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith

Genesis
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The problem is that as long as I can create credit against nothing then whether I have alleged "gold" or not as a backing is immaterial. And if I can't create credit against nothing then it also doesn't matter.

The argument is "well you could run the bank and thus limit the problem." But I can do that now. Why don't I and everyone else? Hmmm...

Goldbuggery is a convenient distraction aimed at people who don't think it through.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Mrbill
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Karl is right, the answer is actually that the US doesn't have enough production capability (or at least allocated correctly) for everyone over 65 to get that much.

You either move up the age, cut back the benefits or reallocate the economy.

Medicare/Medicaid is attempting to reallocate the economy by moving money into the sector that old people demand, sick care.

The problem is that everyone not old, sick and dying doesn't really like the idea of an economy that revolves around MRIs and drugs.
Standby
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Somewhere I found that total medicare spending in 2011 was $550B whereas total medicaid spending was $400B. To me it still seems unclear as some other place said we spent more on medicaid than medicare. In either case, it seems like a no brainer to make a distinction and cut the free stuff first. When you've got something like 1 in 3 births in this country paid by medicaid and 1 of every 5 children covered by medicaid it really ticks me off that FSA keep having babies.
Genesis
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That's about right -- federal is ~$820 billion between the two for 2011, but States are part of Medicaid as well.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Standby
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Thanks Karl. I think the other thing I'd like to know is precisely how much we are spending on total (federal/state employees) pension vs. medical costs. It wouldn't surprise me if it rivaled social security and medicare.
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Not now, but the problem with the pensions is that determining the actual level of funding .vs. requirements is rather difficult. There are a lot of assumptions that go into long-run actuarial planning of this sort which is one reason why we shouldn't have governments do it -- the risk should be borne by those who profit (or lose) from the decisions.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Degaston
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Transparency on providers' pricing and equality for all payers are the #1 answer to the medical costs problem right now. Why we don't have this is because the politicians have played games for too long with Medicare/Medicaid reimbursement rates.

http://www.justmeans.com/editorial/wp-co....
http://clistersbackchannel.files.wordpre....

And I'm frankly tired of the politicians getting away with the claim that they're not going to touch the system for anyone 55 or older. The math says they can't keep that promise.

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3/17/2013: Bullish on nothing - 100 percent in cash.
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