| User Info
| Fed Minutes: I've Got More Crack -- I Promise! in forum [Market-Ticker]
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Mannfm11
Posts: 3533
Incept: 2009-02-28
DFW, Tx
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They are merely diluting the scotch.
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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
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Savingsaretheway
Posts: 118
Incept: 2011-12-16
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Perhaps it's just me, but I honestly do not see additional balance sheet expansion from the Fed with crude moving back toward $100.
I think they're merely manufacturing the possibility of further easing to keep a floor under equities and junk bonds.
It's a very fragile confidence game, as the Fed has been dangling the "they'll be more QE. We pinky swear" carrot in front of the markets since last summer when QE2 ended. One would think that the bluff will be called at some point.
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Yaldor
Posts: 2687
Incept: 2008-05-17
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agree with Savingsaretheway . Talk is cheap and that is the only weapon left in the Feds' arsenal
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For every crash the probability of someone showing that he predicted it is near 1 .
For every prediction of an imminent crash the probability of it being correct is almost zero
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Krs
Posts: 685
Incept: 2009-05-07
Colleyville, Texas
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And their own statements will tie their hands as any bad economic news will ramp all markets - stocks, gold, oil, currencies you name it, in anticipation of that which will never come. When confidence fails no amount of QE will stop the unwind.
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Fog, smoke, and mirrors... perhaps those tin-foil-hat wearing digital dickweeds were on to something?
Tyler Durden on the Fed – Feb 28, 2013
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Wineaux
Posts: 533
Incept: 2009-03-23
pure Liquid pleasure
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So Benny’s helping the Obama reelection effort by writing his campaign speech months early about how the S&P is back to the level prior to the crash. Checkmate Romney.
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What wine goes with unemployment?
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Nuke_engineer
Posts: 2698
Incept: 2007-08-19
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Quote:So Benny’s helping the Obama reelection effort by writing his campaign speech months early about how the S&P is back to the level prior to the crash. Checkmate Romney. You bring a good point Wineaux. The thing that has kept me wondering is why is he and the rest of the Fed so touchy about equity market levels? He seems to pull the trigger quite easily with even the slightest of downdraft in the markets. Didn't make sense until you made the comment. He's not interested in the markets....his goal is to keep Barack in power. His moves also signal a blackmail to Wall Street. Either you support us, or if we lose the election, I will tell everyone that there is no more "kraken". And like KRS said: Quote:When confidence fails no amount of QE will stop the unwind. Romney will get the "scorched earth" and unwound market with*****ed off economic allies as the arrival gift from Obama.
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Trading and investing is understanding about people, emotions and corruption of government, corporations, banks and people using propaganda, lies, mathematics and bankster logic working against you.
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Crzymorse
Posts: 1183
Incept: 2010-06-25
Maryland
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A pickup in subprime auto loans and loans to kids with no credit and no future job prospects. Ben Bernanke is acting like Gomez from the Addams Family playing with his train set.
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Eaglewwit
Posts: 6054
Incept: 2007-11-30
SoCal
Banned
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Quote:Will the market figure this out? Eventually. Karl I fear that you and I will both be 6 feet under by the time this happens. |
Crzymorse
Posts: 1183
Incept: 2010-06-25
Maryland
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The market has figured this out there are just no alternatives. Where are you going to put your millions; in euros, yen, a third world country, corzine?
Everybody is along for the ride until political change disrupts the current global balance of payments. Thats why the Japanese current account deficit is worth watching, they shouldn't be buying USTs as they will be importing NG. Also our shale gas and oil is going to change the balance of payments with the Middle East over the next couple years, we buy less oil and they recycle less petrodollars. China is the wild card, and as low cost manufacturing flees China to third world countries the need for their currency peg becomes irrelevant. Then all thats left to buy USTs is the fed.
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Yaldor
Posts: 2687
Incept: 2008-05-17
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Quote:Karl I fear that you and I will both be 6 feet under by the time this happens. Thats what I have been trying to say few years ago . This game can go on for much longer than anyone can anticipate. My signature has not changed for almost 4 ! years.
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For every crash the probability of someone showing that he predicted it is near 1 .
For every prediction of an imminent crash the probability of it being correct is almost zero
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Mannfm11
Posts: 3533
Incept: 2009-02-28
DFW, Tx
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crazy, shale oil and gas is merely a tale told by an idiot. If it transpires, gas will go to $10 per 1000 feet or more or it won't be a reliable source. The decline curve on gas is quick, meaning in 3 to 5 years, sans continual drilling, we will be out. I have read data that the shale gas is an overstated source of energy, more of a tale than a fact. Prior to making a gas investment, I checked out production from gas wells, readily available from the Texas Railroad Commission. Under $5, there isn't a return of capital to the public investor out of almost any of it. We saw the peak in US oil production in the 1970's and we won't get half way back to that peak, unless there are some monster fields with large producing wells, on par with middle east fields.
As I said above, we are merely watching them dilute the scotch. Trying to fix solvency by liquidity isn't going to work, because the money is ending up in the places where solvency isn't a concern, other than the banks. This is really nothing more than continual banking bailout material.
I am amused by what they discuss this day and time. Housing? Homebuilding is at a depression level. In fact, a 100% increase in new home starts from the bottom would still be a deep recession level. There aren't any more qualified buyers showing up for homes. There is also a factor of recovery meaning a triple of interest rates. In order to have any kind of management of the monetary policy in this event would require a massive sale of acquired assets by the Fed. They are lying as I type on CNBS, though the kid is kind of telling the truth. We have a massive recession on the horizon. The Asian woman is getting worse than Maria, who never saw a bear she gave credit for being right.
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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
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Jstanley01
Posts: 8173
Incept: 2008-07-30
San Antonio, Texas
Online
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FOMC wrote..The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments and will provide additional accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.
http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-08-.... Unless he has changed his tactics, Bernanke is not going to QE at the high of the year. What's his rationale? That people on CNBS have their panties in a bunch? Best I can tell, he won't be pulling the trigger on it north of the 1145s. Which level, if he has overplayed his hand, may not hold. "M" is for...
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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum
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Jubber
Posts: 13936
Incept: 2007-07-05
UK
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Well apart from Gold & Silver and the Euro the effect on stocks was almost Zero, the Banks didn't react at all, most of the bounce was on the movement of Apple as far as I could see and the blatant Euro ramp, it will be interesting to see if any momentum is carried forward this evening is Asia, especially with Chinese PMI later.
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“The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher
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Curious1
Posts: 439
Incept: 2008-03-22
Oregon
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Ben will not waste his last bullet when the market is at a good level if all he is going to get is a slight bump.
He'll save it, and it won't do much when he uses it. And as Yaldor says, that day is a long way off.
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Jstanley01
Posts: 8173
Incept: 2008-07-30
San Antonio, Texas
Online
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That 1145 is HWB for a long, with a target just south of the OTH.
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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum
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Debtpie
Posts: 534
Incept: 2009-12-17
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Quote:...additional mone-tary accommodation would likely be warranted fairly soon... Told ya! Back in July it was too soon to juice the economy in favor of Obama...wait till mid/late September...give the market an instant high...then a little push to hold things steady till November...maybe drop the unemployment rate a bit...going into Black Friday and Christmas, numbers are "looking better". Romney's still out there fumbling around trying to get his base to vote for him (here in Iowa anyway) with far right wacko "evil" obama ads...not working. New Obama ad in Iowa today...Ryan's plan for Medicare Vouchers...oops! I do have to give him points for the vouchers though...he did try to end "free" government supplied medical insurance for geezers..he's backing way away from that now...promising to work with Romney to "Strengthen" Medicare...aka pump in whatever amount of money it takes to keep the government take-over of health insurance for seniors alive while promising to kill the government take-over health care for everyone else...sigh. MediCare, ObamaCare, it's the same thing...the theft of money from one group to pay for a freebe for the other...either both are wrong or both are OK!
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A Leader, or an Opportunist? "A leader has the capacity of vision, the ability to see where things are headed before people in general see those things." Mitt Romney --- DebtPie's definition: a leader decides where "things" should head and "leads" us there.
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Crzymorse
Posts: 1183
Incept: 2010-06-25
Maryland
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Hi Mannfm,
I'll disclose I'm long natural gas. I expect the prIce to go up over the next couple years as the companies that overly leveraged themselves to build wells go out of business. I agree with diluting the scotch and at one point global imbalances will cause us to dilute the scotch at a faster pace.
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Soontobeexpat
Posts: 19
Incept: 2012-04-04
Nevada USA
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@crzymorse. I ran across this chart today.... quite telling
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Malencid
Posts: 159
Incept: 2007-12-19
Oregon
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Blurtman
Posts: 563
Incept: 2009-01-24
Banned
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Many moons ago, I took an econ course taught by Janet Yellen at UC Bezerkeley. Yellen is now head of the SF Fed bank. There was not much depth to her ideas, which were rather silly and based on nothing but her pet ideas. This is not science. These people ain't too bright, but just repeat and enlarge on the dogma of the day. There is no there, there. And Laura Tyson-nice looking, passionate, but histroy has shown, horribly wrong. These are just ideas, that's all.
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I have a reading comprehension problem and the owner banned me for repeatedly displaying it after being warned.
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Eaglewwit
Posts: 6054
Incept: 2007-11-30
SoCal
Banned
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All true Blurtman, but these people have been given extraordinary powers and truly believe the crap they spew. That is a very dangerous combination.
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Enapa
Posts: 1161
Incept: 2008-01-25
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Laying the groundwork for the big checks dear leader will be sending us all cementing his reelection, pacifying the masses, and ensuring the total collapse. You watch. October surprise.
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Muscleknight
Posts: 3985
Incept: 2007-06-26
Columbia, SC
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How come the market didn't blast off on the release today?
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Morla
Posts: 815
Incept: 2009-11-09
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Remember Ben is not the only one who can print.. In a pinch the individual banks could conveniently forget about lending standards (again).. Solvency apparently being a barbarous relic anyway... Muscleknight wrote..How come the market didn't blast off on the release today? The gold and silver markets did ;)
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Fear of govt IS the government.. Statism is a pack of unbacked threats; If govt gets out of control, ignore it and go about life as you see fit. Where's your crown, King Nothing?
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