The Time To Pivot Is Passing
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-08-19 09:59
by Karl Denninger
in Politics
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The Time To Pivot Is Passing
 

There's an interesting article on Fox News this weekend that, if you're a Libertarian (with a big or little "L") bears reading and careful consideration.

Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson almost certainly can't win the  presidential election this year. But his supporters claim he could determine who  does.

Johnson, the former New Mexico governor who briefly and unsuccessfully  competed for the Republican presidential nomination before joining the  Libertarians, is polling barely above 5 percent nationwide.

History says that July and August numbers are notoriously unreliable in this regard.  While Libertarian and other third-party candidates often poll around 5% in the summer, by the few weeks prior to the election most of the so-called supporters switch and in the end vote for one of the "big two."  Breaking this mold is something the Libertarian party has tried to do for 40 years, without success.

The answer to the question "why?" is found right at the end of the above article.

Johnson's supporters argue that he's not just a niche candidate. (Carla) Howell noted Johnson's platform goes beyond decriminalizing marijuana and supporting same sex-marriage to include a balanced-budget plan.

Read that paragraph as many times as it takes until the light comes on.

Gary Johnson's platform can't "go beyond" decriminalizing pot and supporting same-sex marriage and win.  It must be founded upon and speak to the core issues facing the nation, which are the national debt, deficit spending generally, the unbridled growth of cost in medical care and education along with financial frauds of all sorts that have stripped the American people of their homes, jobs and wealth. 

Marijuana decriminalization should be an adjunct in a national platform, not form the core of it.  "Gay marriage" is none of the government's damn business; since Gary Johnson supports The Fair Tax he can't even argue that it's a civil right based on tax equality, since he would do away with the IRS and the Income Tax in the first place.  Never mind the pesky little fact that the solution to one statist policy is not more statism; it is the removal of the government boot from people's necks, not adding more boots to more necks!

You can't balance the budget without addressing the medical cost explosion.  Not Medicare and Medicaid, the medical system at its core.  This cost explosion exists due to specific government policies that make "ordinary business practices" out of acts that in other lines of business and personal interaction are felonies.

Likewise, most of the nation's economic mess is due to government protections of practices that, absent those protections, are felonies.  It is a felony to knowingly pollute the land and water while producing your products here in the United States.  It is only through so-called "free trade" agreements (with China and elsewhere) that manufacturers can offshore that production and then pollute "over there" without facing felony indictment.  The United States has every right, under the Constitution, to police such acts using Tariffs -- but it instead effectively grants protection to firms that abuse labor, land, water and air so long as it happens in another country.  Never mind that the Libertarian Party claims to hold as it's "first principle" that the initiation of force is unacceptable.  I don't recall a clause in the oath saying "except when corporations selling products in the US do it in China."

If I intentionally produce documents that are false -- swearing, for example, that I have personal knowledge of the contents when I do not -- in a court case I can be charged with perjury.  In many states such an act is a felony.  Over 100,000 intentionally-false affidavits were filed ("robosigned") in foreclosure cases and withdrawn; the guilty parties paid at worst a fine and were not prosecuted.  Wachovia admitted to laundering hundreds of millions of dollars of drug money for Mexican cartels.  This is a felony; were you or I to launder $100 we'd go to prison.  They got a "deferred prosecution agreement" (in other words, no prosecution.)

You think this is an isolated incident?  Standard Chartered anyone?  Jefferson County Alabama?  It's utterly endemic and it stifles all those who obey the law and would like to start a business, because there is no means to control for the risk that some big institution will commit a crime to put you out of business and there is nothing you can do about it. 

Again, I don't recall an exception in the Libertarian oath saying "except for banksters, who can steal anything that isn't nailed down along with funding shoot-you-ups by drug dealers and it's all ok."

Finally, there's a foreign policy issue we don't want to talk about either -- that's our idiotic lack of a cogent energy policy that is now 40 years old.  This, more than anything else, drives our $750+ billion in annual defense spending.  We can't afford it but we also can't cut it back to a reasonable size (like, for example, half of what we spend today) without an actual energy policy that gets us off the foreign oil teat -- permanently

We know how to do it too -- we proved that it works some forty years ago.  You know, back before fancy computers and robotics?  Back when braniacs used slide rules and pocket protectors and CAD/CAM was a pipe dream.

But we don't talk about that either, and unfortunately that is a place where statist intrusion is part and parcel on both sides.  Nuclear energy has a state component that appears to be inescapable, but so does foreign intervention.  Which do you prefer, because you must choose between one or the other!

We as Libertarians have consigned ourselves to the fringe of political debate because of what we choose to place front-and-center in our campaigns.  Any sort of analytical analysis would inescapably lead to the conclusion that when your party spokesperson says that our Presidential Candidate's platform "goes beyond" same-sex marriage and decriminalizing pot she should be instantaneously fired and replaced with someone who can and will make the forceful argument to candidates that these are not leading issues and if the party is going to back and support said candidates they need to align the core of their campaigns with what matters to Americans on the street.

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Crzymorse
Posts: 1189
Incept: 2010-06-25

Maryland
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Absolutely correct. As a matter of fact, the Libertarian party could displace the Republician party very quickly in the Mid-Altantic and Northeast States if it got its act together. I get the sense a growing number of people are annoyed with the overly religious bent of the Republician party, the lack of fiscal discpline and disregard for the rule of law. Furthermore, a growing number of those same people are tired of being associated with the ass clowns on Fox news and the religious right wing of the party.
Jake3463
Posts: 769
Incept: 2010-03-06
Green
Allentown
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The two parties will hit enough on wedge issues against each other (God, Gays, and Guns) to ensure that no third party gets a significant portion of the vote. They do not need another Ross Perot truth telling episode to gain steam. Particularly at this junction in our history. Their friends in the media on both sides are in very cozy positions from not exposing the idiocy of both the democratic and republican parties ideas. They have no interest even if a candidate tries to start the conversation from letting it happen.



Debtpie
Posts: 534
Incept: 2009-12-17

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Crzymorse,

I hear ya, and agree...but if the Libertarians ever "get their act together" they will splinter the Republican Party and hand full control over to the Democrats.

No way in Haiti are the Religious nuts going to vote Libertarian...so you end up with 30% Democrat, 20% Republitarians, 10% Religolus and 40% Independent registered voters. If half the I's go D in the election, you get 50% Democrat, 40% Republitarian, 10% Religolus(Bachmann Candidate). (Those are rough numbers, but the point is that the Republitarians would cast out the religious nuts and would be lucky to pull more than 50% of the Independents..that's not a winning formula).

Democrats take the whole pie.

Libertarians need to go into Subversive mode within the system. Start saying what people want to hear, but do (as much as possible) what they really believe. Like it or not, that's how our system works...promising everyone whatever it is that they want...then doing whatever it is that you (and your biggest $$$ supporters) want...maybe throwing a few bones to your biggest little people support groups just to keep the pitch forks closeted.

Ours is a system where the best snake charmer wins...Reagan, Bush1, Clinton, Bush2, Obama...all master pungi players.

Yeah, that sucks, but you fight the war to win, not to demonstrate how you think a war should be fought....the righteous path mostly leads to failure in US politics.

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A Leader, or an Opportunist? "A leader has the capacity of vision, the ability to see where things are headed before people in general see those things." Mitt Romney --- DebtPie's definition: a leader decides where "things" should head and "leads" us there.

Crzymorse
Posts: 1189
Incept: 2010-06-25

Maryland
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Debtpie,

Well said! My feeling is they would draw in more independents than a 50:50 split and make it a dogfight up North. Also the religious group would vote against the democrat. Down south I agree your outcome being more likely. Your absolutely correct on snake charmers being an essential skill for office.
Marvinmartian
Posts: 750
Incept: 2011-03-16
Green
Pasadena, CA
Online
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Both Obama and Romney manipulate the electorate using rhetoric to sway voters that dont care to think for themselves.

Given the quality of the Democrat/Republican electorate, they vote for the parties that stand for crony capitalism.

Its conceivable that independents and those to disgusted with the current system could vote out the Democrat/Republican candidates.

How likely is that given that the news outlets are controlled by the corporations that benefit from crony capitalism?
Inline
Jstanley01
Posts: 8178
Incept: 2008-07-30
Silver A True American Patriot!
San Antonio, Texas
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The Libertarian Party remains brain dead, like it has been my entire adult life. But kudos for your continuing attempts to inject some life into it.

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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum
Preidt2
Posts: 552
Incept: 2009-07-31
Green
spokane/wash
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THERE IS NOOOOO choice for president, the system is BROKEN

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Puppets Under Destruction
End_the_bubbles
Posts: 9519
Incept: 2009-03-25
Green
The New 3rd World
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Preidt2 wrote..
THERE IS NOOOOO choice for president, the system is BROKEN


Exactly!


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In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.
Oldno7
Posts: 2138
Incept: 2008-11-14
Gold
RECALL STATE USA
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Say what you want but there is a choice and the choice is NOT Obummer.

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IT'S THE SPENDING STUPID The US must become less a government of men, and more a government of LAW.
When people lose everything and have nothing left to lose they lose it -Gerald Celente
Flappingeagle
Posts: 1227
Incept: 2011-04-14

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I disagree with Debt. The majority would vote Libertarian IF they were given a coherent and cogent platform that made sense. If people thought their personal freedoms would be protected they'd flee the democrats and if people thought their property would be protected they'd flee the republicans.

I don't think I've said it on this forum but I've said it in other places, the religous right ruined the conservative movement. They produced a litmus test on God and abortion and if you passed that test you could then spend like a drunken sailor and still be called "conservative".

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Dmj625
Posts: 434
Incept: 2010-03-01
Green
New Orleans, LA
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Flappingeagle +1

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"The more that laws and regulations are given prominence, the more thieves and robbers there will be."
-Lao-tzu
Mannfm11
Posts: 3539
Incept: 2009-02-28
Gold
DFW, Tx
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JS, the libertarian idea has never been brain dead. It is based on the assumption that a nation of people can make better decisions than an interested state bureaucracy that basically feeds fat pitches to the oligarchs and plans according to its needs and not ours. We have uranium powered plants because the defense department designed them so they could make bombs. There never has been another reason for the design. We have bombs, because a small group of people make a lot of money out of war, namely the bankers and a few industrialists. It has never been for the economy. There are a million and one rules for everything, so lawyers will have something to do, putting the average Joe at a disadvantage of having no clue what he is supposed to do and as far as that goes, 99% of the lawyers as well. healthcare is run for the benefit of a small group, leaving the average person twisting in the wind, paying extortion to insurance companies and government agencies. The only brains in government are in the military and in back offices devising ways to screw the rest of us. We get in debates about who is paying their fair share while government of various levels is looting about 40% of what we make. The bastards not paying their fair share are those taking it from us and the amount should be cut by 2/3 at a minimum and 85% to 90% would be more like it, along with about 99% of the regulations. Someone pollutes our water, those affected should class action the bastards to where they would have to do business for 1000 years to pay the damages. They dump poison in our air and rain soot on us, they should pay us, not the state of New York or the US. Those bastards merely take the money and give it back to the tortfeasors.

This is a stage show we are watching. It is being run by people that know how to pull **** off right in front of the average Joe. Karl is hitting this right on the head, the side issues obscuring the real issues. Educated people, educated in a bunch of nonsense. I don't get involved in these political debates, save for the unequal protection of the law that is going on in business. I believe it was Jstanley who posted the commencement address by Dr. Michael Burry. How they let this guy get up there and tell the truth to a bunch of brainwashed kids, I don't konw. He was attacked by our government when he wrote an oped that it was impossible they didn't see this mortgage bomb coming. Think Obama wants to get to the bottom of it when his cronies are up to their necks in it, Corzine, Raines, Summers and the group?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CLhqjOzo....
Dr. Michael Burry at UCLA

http://mises.org/document/3000/On-Doing-....
Albert Jay Nock, On Doing the Right Thing

Read the title essay.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Killben
Posts: 205
Incept: 2009-12-07

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You can call the Party by any name as long as ...

these issues are at the core

No bailout even if the world ends -- neither front door or backdoor
No power to bailout for anyone
No Central Bank--if that is not possible then only one mandate --- what the currency purchases today.. it purchases tomorrow and the day later-- else you face jail term
No lobbying -- make lobbying illegal
No Corporate Campaign finance.. only individual Campaign finance (may be $500 max)
If promises made -- will need to explain how it is going to be kept. If not kept ... 10 years min jail term.
Any corporate fraud (e.g. selling dog crap as chocolate) comes with 10 years min jail --no settlement without criminal charges-- no more salting away billions and settling for millions-- settlement at min 10 times the highest profit in the history of the company
The top 10 executives get min 25 years jail if customers funds vanish .. no need for proof. If money not there that is proof
Jstanley01
Posts: 8178
Incept: 2008-07-30
Silver A True American Patriot!
San Antonio, Texas
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Mannfm11 wrote..
JS, the libertarian idea has never been brain dead. It is based on the assumption that a nation of people can make better decisions than an interested state bureaucracy that basically feeds fat pitches to the oligarchs and plans according to its needs and not ours.
I am a dyed in the wool "small-l" libertarian. For whom it is the "capital-L" party that has proven itself to be brain dead. That is, if its job is to decide what the top priorities ought to be for libertarianism, and then figure out how to leverage them into the broader political debate of the country, by, for instance, educating and appealing to the better angels of the electorate.

During and since the Reagan administration, we have seen the conservative Republi-turds GROSSLY violate their libertarian principles countless times. Principles which had and still have broad appeal in the country whose one-word motto since its founding has been "Liberty." Yet the Libertarian Party during that entire time has been able to increase its percentage of the vote by ZERO.

That's why I say, "brain dead."

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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum

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