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| Philly: Still Red, Too Late in forum [Market-Ticker]
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Reza30
Posts: 289
Incept: 2009-02-15
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The months ahead will be very interesting. If we do get a Lehman moment I wonder where they money will come from this time to bail out everyone and continue the deficit spending. If the Fed proves powerless to contain the crisis (very likely) a 50% crash in stock prices is almost assured IMO. Hussman has a brilliant article well worth reading: No Such Thing as Risk? ... So what do I worry about? I worry that investors forget how devastating a deep investment loss can be on a portfolio. I worry that the constant hope for central bank action has given investors a false sense of security that recessions and deep market downturns can be made obsolete. I worry that the depth of the recessions and downturns – when they occur – will be much deeper precisely because of the speculation, moral hazard, and misallocation of resources that monetary authorities have encouraged. I worry that both a global recession and severe market downturn are closer at hand than investors assume, partly despite, and partly because, they have so fully embraced the illusory salvation of monetary intervention. http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc120730.htm |
Susanjbear
Posts: 417
Incept: 2010-06-10
Salt Lake City, Utah
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Oops Karl when I click on the chart I get "not found."
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Susan
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Genesis
Posts: 130798
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Read the article and click the chart inside there.... (from Philly); I'll remove the link on the ticker as it's a relative link and thus doesn't work.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Eaglewwit
Posts: 6054
Incept: 2007-11-30
SoCal
Banned
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I don't know what you are talking about Karl. Everything is fine the stock market is closing in on all time highs.  |
Mannfm11
Posts: 3556
Incept: 2009-02-28
DFW, Tx
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That is some confusing talk. Workweek improved 3, but was still negative. Took me a minute to figure that one out.
As far as the market go? I think Hussman is correct. This is basically a cash for bankers economy and bankers are attempting to front run a market that just might collapse. There is all this talk of cash? Who owes it, as someone has to owe it. If the bankers are front running, they owe it and then we are looking at TARP II. How bout RUYA I, as in ram it up your a..., in response.
No one answers, who is going to take the loss. They should keep a list of these bastards that come on CNBS who talk a simple solution in Europe and take the losses out of their pockets, seeing as they have this dream that there isn't one. I know who is going to take the loss. ABB, as in anyone but bankers. Seems the politicians offer them continued solvency, while the courts offer them immunity for the established criminal laws. Problem is, if those that owe the debts keep taking the losses, the paper owed the banks can't be paid. Thus, we have the 3 stooges floor painting company, painting itself into a corner.
What are the sources of the profits? Government spending deficits, fancy book keeping and continual downsizing. The purpose of all of this is to keep assets inflated. Greece is about to blow and if not this time, next time. If it is next time, it will be clear Spain and Italy are about to blow as well and by that time, it will be clear the USA, France, Japan and probably the rest of them will be joining them, as the whole world is going to have to reorganize. If the US prints money to pay its debt, the dark ages won't be too far behind.
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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
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Themortgagedude
Posts: 8853
Incept: 2007-12-17
saint louis
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You ain't gonna get anything but Sunshine, Lollipops and Rainbows from the Bureu of Lies and Scams. I'm dead serious on that. You think Axlerod and his boys will let that out.
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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
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Jstanley01
Posts: 8182
Incept: 2008-07-30
San Antonio, Texas
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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum
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Lenguado
Posts: 1272
Incept: 2010-01-12
Orlando, FL
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Quote:While the rate of deterioration slowed, detrioration continued everywhere except in prices received and prices paid -- "Click ~ ~ " "Ladies and Gentlemen, this is your Pilot speaking. I have good news! I have been able to arrest our rate of descent from 15,000 feet per minute to 10,000 feet per minute!!! We still have no engines operating, no hydraulic power, and are still over the Pacific Ocean. However, the entertainment system is still operating on battery power so you can still watch this week's 'Dancing with the Stars!" "Click ~ ~ " 
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I just realized... they aren't saying, "Keynesian Economics" they're saying "Kenyansian Economics". Grass Huts for everyone!  Welcome to history’s first Double Dip Depression |
Debtpie
Posts: 534
Incept: 2009-12-17
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Quote:which means that very-visible economic deterioration will be evident right in front of the election Well, can't have that... Prediction: The Fed announces a "sure-fire" plan to revive the economy in late September...market rallies, bond yields drop, unemployment numbers are "massaged" to show improvement..good times are here again! ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Wisconsin...Ryans home state...Rasmussan...Romney 48%, Obama 47%... RealClearPolitics (RCP) 2012 polling numbers: Obama winning at +3.5% - In 2008, final polling showed Obama at +7.6% Actual 2008 popular vote results: Obama +7.38%...RCP was off by only .22%...keep your eye on the RCP numbers. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/....
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A Leader, or an Opportunist? "A leader has the capacity of vision, the ability to see where things are headed before people in general see those things." Mitt Romney --- DebtPie's definition: a leader decides where "things" should head and "leads" us there.
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End_the_bubbles
Posts: 9525
Incept: 2009-03-25
The New 3rd World
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"The Market" - the farce that it is - is saying - NOPE! 4 year highs and well on it's way to my long time prediction of new ALL TIME HIGHS!
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In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.
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Reza30
Posts: 289
Incept: 2009-02-15
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"The Market - the farce that it is - is saying - NOPE! 4 year highs and well on it's way to my long time prediction of new ALL TIME HIGHS!"
End,
You may be correct, but I was hearing calls for "Dow 16,000" right before the Lehman moment.
One thing that Karl, Hussman, and Mish etc. have all underestimated was the quiet power grab that happened during the last crisis by the Central Banks, and the extent to which they were willing to go to protect the wealthy at the risk of destroying the whole system.
But in the long run, we are nothing but an economic ecosystem and the wealthy cannot create wealth without taking from those who work for them, and those who work for them cannot just keep creating wealth through credit and debt. The current system will ultimately disrupt the food chain when misallocations destroy production and innovation.
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Debtpie
Posts: 534
Incept: 2009-12-17
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Quote:"The Market" - the farce that it is - is saying - NOPE! 4 year highs and well on it's way to my long time prediction of new ALL TIME HIGHS! Q. Where is the money coming from? A. Is it possible that all the HFT's are levered up...and continue to lever up even more to reach those "new highs" first? Didn't Karl just point out that Knight Capital was levered up 7 to 1 when it made an HFT "trading mistake" and blew up the company? If there is no limit to how high the trading houses can lever up, then there is (pratically) no limit to how high the market can go...as long as everyone keeps using credit to buy...up, up, up we go. If you want to know when the market will collapse, figure out when 'levering up' is going to hit the wall.
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A Leader, or an Opportunist? "A leader has the capacity of vision, the ability to see where things are headed before people in general see those things." Mitt Romney --- DebtPie's definition: a leader decides where "things" should head and "leads" us there.
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Penguinzee
Posts: 226
Incept: 2010-06-13
Tampa Bay, FL
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Just a "boots on the ground" observation...
I work in the T-shirt printing business, and summertime is obviously busy season for us... business usually starts tailing off after Labor Day, once we fill orders for the catalog retailers for Xmas (you know the shirts with the pithy slogans on them-we print'em!). This year was decent until August 1st, and this week the bottom has essentially fallen out-NO orders, NO phone calls, just dead silence... we've had some work already, and some vacations, but once both of those are out of the way, I know my hours are going to get cut, and fairly hard...
Everybody is in a "wait and see" mode atm, nobody wants to commit any orders until they know what's going on politically and economically (think tax hikes). Saw much of the same pattern in 2008, and imo was well justified. I think this election cycle will be even more restrained, which may exaggerate any BS coming out of Wall Street and the banksters...
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Crime is far too lucrative a game to let the little people play.-popofthebright
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Supertruckertom
Posts: 215
Incept: 2010-11-07
USA
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Yep Penguin I know what you mean.
I worked my first 8 hour day since Feb. Other drivers went home early today as well. I talked to an overnight shift yard jockey on the way out the door. At a 120 door freight terminal he made 15 trailer moves all night. On a normal night he would do 30-50 depending on how many yard drivers are on duty. We run 4-6 yard jockeys when freight is heavy. On heavy nights we would break about 250-300 trailers in a 6 hour time frame from 9 pm to 3 am.
My Son in Law works for Deloitte in NYC. He volunteered for temporary assignment in Dallas to check out the office and customer base out there. He is a very smart young man. He and my daughter realized that it is time to get out of there as they probably couldn't make it on one salary. Her degree is almost finished and she can finish it online at SUNY for in state rates if they relocate. The hospital where she is a research assistant pays 100% of her tuition and books so she is student debt free. The tax savings alone would pay for the remaining tuition costs if they move. I think he fears another meltdown is on the way. Since he gets to see the real numbers and is in on some good office talk I think it is a wise move.
My daughter and I talked about it during my lunch.
It is so slow I actually got one.
Brace for impact.
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What I do is fairly simple.
People need their stuff.
It is my job to get it to them.
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Debtpie
Posts: 534
Incept: 2009-12-17
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Quote:It is so slow I actually got one. The USPS guy that delivers my mail; we talk from time to time....spoke with him the other day...insanely slow mail volume the entire summer..sometimes he goes 3 or 4 houses with nothing to put in the box...people that get mail get an envelope or two. Was at Target yesterday..there he was shopping in uniform.."another slow day" he says.. For a while this summer, around here, the USPS was heavily pushing ads promoting its "advertise to zip" program where a business could pick residential zip codes and spam them with an ad at a great mailing cost...I think the program flopped...the ads have stopped and I didn't see any increase in local business advertising. ~~~~ Looking through Real Clear Politics polling data: 62% say we (with Obama at the helm) are on the wrong track...but prefer the "Wrong" direction Obama is taking us over Romney's "New" direction by about 4%...Romney has some work to do..
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A Leader, or an Opportunist? "A leader has the capacity of vision, the ability to see where things are headed before people in general see those things." Mitt Romney --- DebtPie's definition: a leader decides where "things" should head and "leads" us there.
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