The ABI (Architectural Billings Index) shows all regions and building categories in negative territory (<50).

http://www.architectmagazine.com/busines....

>>The ABI (Architectural Billings Index) shows all regions and building categories in negative territory (<50).>>

I'd agree with that, I'm in an associated profession. 90% of our firm's work right now is municipal in some form or other. Street reconstruction (almost done with those), municipally-owned entertainment facilities (almost done with those), K-12 and higher education projects (mostly done with those)...a disturbing pattern is in the aforementioned. These projects started in 2008 and just beyond, funded through bond issues mostly, although some was 'fundulus' money of course.

We, along with the five good-sized firms that hire firms like mine, are running out of work. School districts, universities, agencies of all kinds are not issuing requests for qualifications, the first step in the selection of an AE team and the first step in new work. Some agencies that fund through bond issues were not able to present a bond issue package in a size large enough to fund their typical improvments, and had to split up bond packages into fractions of the whole (Formerly, one client would have a 300M bond issue package to fund schools; they were advised to issue it in 50M increments over several years). I have no idea if there were no buyers; if the market couldn't absorb that kind of bond offering, no idea.

Except in very isolated instances, nearly all governmental work will run out for architects and engineers within the next 6 to 18 months. That is most of their business, as speculative development is ambient temperature.

There is nothing to take its' place.

The only private sector work we're doing is for cash-cow assisted living facilities; multi-family facilities that are entirely funded through cash-flow from other projects; and the occasional small private commission.

Really bad time to be getting into the Arch and Engr professions.

We've seen our sales drop from 2007 to 2012 by thirty percent. I fully expect to see it drop another thirty before we bottom, and will probably shed most of our employees along the way.

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I'd agree with that, I'm in an associated profession. 90% of our firm's work right now is municipal in some form or other. Street reconstruction (almost done with those), municipally-owned entertainment facilities (almost done with those), K-12 and higher education projects (mostly done with those)...a disturbing pattern is in the aforementioned. These projects started in 2008 and just beyond, funded through bond issues mostly, although some was 'fundulus' money of course.

Second this. I was in an associated profession and all but this work dried up in mid-2008. Small jobs and homeowners stopped any and all speculative work in early 2007 and it trickled until Oct 2008 when it stopped at -0-.

Well, the lead time on gov't and muni projects is just about 3.5 years and the time is up, so if I were to go back to the prior firm I would find that volume has notched down yet again, back to 2000 levels or so.

They would shed 45 of 49 jobs, or so.

Appears quite contradictory doesn't it?

The ABI tells you what you can expect 12-18 months down the road so right now the only light at the end of the tunnel is a train.

Yet, as in the Plotonium-Antimatter swan has not shown up. Yet.



When TSHFT this next time it will tragic watching the politicians scramble to save their careers with hopium, BS, and all of our money they can get their hands on.

Flap

So my question is how long is it going to take for the whole kit 'n kaboodle to collapse? Or are they still going be kicking the can down the road when they turn me to ash? I'm starting to believe that the status quo goes on for at least another decade or more. If they pulled another TARP on us next week I suspect the large percentage of the American public would go along with it. I'm not holding out hope for a reset. Not in my lifetime at least.

This is exactly what everyone was saying in 2006 and early 07 with housing.... remember?

When 1.3 T is needed every year just to stay on the treadmill we hit the wall. What neither of the three parties have yet to accomplish is to nominate a leader instead of a panderer. The solution to the problem is pretty simple.

>>
So my question is how long is it going to take for the whole kit 'n kaboodle to collapse? Or are they still going be kicking the can down the road when they turn me to ash? I'm starting to believe that the status quo goes on for at least another decade or more. If they pulled another TARP on us next week I suspect the large percentage of the American public would go along with it. I'm not holding out hope for a reset. Not in my lifetime at least.>>

Well, the collapse of architecture and engineering equals the collapse of construction, wiping out tens of thousands of jobs. Then of materials production and handling for construction projects; creating a fairly good sized shockwave I'd suspect. They (Feral Gov) still has the ability to nationalize our savings and redistribute that for The National Good; they still have TARP 3, 3A and 3B, so they can kick this can down the road a long-ass way.

They won't, this next time, aim at dubious construction projects. They'll just blatantly buy off the unions and buy up any critical infrastructure on sale, for the sake of The Public Good.

In my little firm in my mid-sized city, we'll be f'd long before TARP 3A hits the streets.

USA = Banana Republic. Doesn't matter who wins, we're hosed either way.

We let our casual city drivers go last week where I work.
Our empty trailer storage lot is slowly filling up here in ATL.
We have cancelled some night runs and let those drivers work in the city so they can keep experienced people on the payroll.
We had a sign up sheet for dispatcher training. I got on it.
That tells me they will let a salary guy go and put a driver behind the computer in the office if they need to.
Non-union companies can do that thank goodness.
We have some huge national accounts and I think we got word from them to batten down the hatches.
We are expecting a repeat of the conditions of 4 years ago from the gossip in the drivers room.
Thankfully the company I work for is debt free and privately held.
They did not lose money in the 2008-2009 collapse.
If it goes that way again I expect the union lines to take the brunt of it.
YRC might finally close up.
Some of the bigger publicly held non-union lines might fold too.
This is just my street level view.
Watch fuel sales to get a better reading.

Things are still moving in my area (20 miles West of Orlando). Big new interchange is being worked on; new bridge on another road has been active for almost a year; new building at the int'l private school; and 5 housing developments have active homes being built right now (just drove by one today). Older couple in my neighborhood just did a room addition on the back of their home.

UE is over 9% county wide again here.

I'm here by I-75 south of Atlanta. When I moved here in 2007, it was very common to see a bunch of trucks on the road heading southbound to Florida. This was true especially during rush hour. After mid-2008, the flow of trucks dropped significantly.

But I have a feeling that the number of trucks will not get back to the pre-2007 levels on I-75. Today, diesel fuel is $3.75 per gallon across the area. We're not too far from the $4.00 mark and from there it's an easy run to $4.50 per gallon.

Tough times are ahead especially for truckers. I know of one trucker who is coming off the road next month after 20 years. Lucky for him, he will find a job working in the Eagle Ford Shale area of South Texas.