The Debt Bomb
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-08-12 14:32
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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The Debt Bomb
 

Let's talk about this for a bit, because we have one candidate (Gary Johnson) who keeps spouting off about government debt (and he's right) along with 43% budget reductions (and he's right) but he's not looking at the rest of the issue, and what's worse, neither of the other candidates think this is a big deal at all.

This is the current table of government debt for calendar year 2012:

      
1/31/201210,572,374,387,699.004,783,766,105,917.0015,356,140,493,616.00 133,200,448,165.00
2/29/201210,722,996,298,868.204,765,894,997,379.8015,488,891,296,248.00 132,750,802,632.00
3/30/201210,846,824,546,943.104,735,254,134,245.5415,582,078,681,188.60 93,187,384,940.60
4/30/201210,916,070,898,102.604,776,297,169,202.5515,692,368,067,305.20 110,289,386,116.60
5/31/201211,006,251,094,374.204,764,433,990,989.8815,770,685,085,364.10 78,317,018,058.90
6/29/201211,044,184,844,611.604,812,182,369,712.7815,856,367,214,324.40 85,682,128,960.30
   7/31/2012
11,122,281,549,948.204,810,953,087,545.3315,933,234,637,493.50 76,867,423,169.10
      
      
      
      
   $1,217,647,872,072.86  

The right-most figure is the monthly change in the total debt (the third numerical column); positive figures are increases, negative ones are decreases.  The outstanding debt has gone up every month thus far in 2012.

The bottom figure is the extrapolated figure at the current "run rate" of debt out to the end of the year.  With seven months in the can, it's thus 7/12ths of the total.

Last year, incidentally, we ran $1.198 trillion, so we're basically in the same place.

The federal budget "as spent" is about $3.8 trillion, so to reduce the deficit to zero we would have to cut expenditures by about 33% gross.  As deficit spending causes GDP to rise, the actual amount we would have to cut spending (due to tax loss flow-through) is materially larger, which is where Governor Johnson (and Bill Still, for that matter) get their ~40% decrease numbers from.

What everyone has to understand but does not want to talk about is that GDP is about $15.5 trillion (as of the last number we have.) 

That is, there is roughly 8% of purchasing power depreciation being shoved down your throat by the federal government this year.  This is on the back of ~10-12% for each of the last three years.

This depreciation does not hit everyone equally.  Some people get hit worse (e.g. you lose your job and do not qualify for unemployment; your purchasing power gets whacked by 50% or more!) while others actually profited (e.g. banksters.) 

You can look at the Median Income tables put out by the US Census, and you will find that from 2007-2008 to 2009-2010, on a 2-year average basis, the "inflation-adjusted" figures fell 3.6% nationally.  This grossly understates the issue, however, as it uses CPI as opposed to monetary inflation.  It thus captures only part of the economy -- intentionally.

But the truth is that monetary balance is what matters in the end.  We are trained to ignore this by the mainstream media -- on purpose -- but any amount of reflection brings the idiocy of such a premise to light. 

Let's assume there are 10,000 units of currency and credit in the system and 10,000 units of production. We then double the units of currency and credit, to 20,000.

It is obvious that with the same units of production (denominated in, say, "cars", "televisions", or "loaves of bread") each unit of production must now cost twice as much in units of currency or credit!

So from the gross (nominal) number of units you earn in salary one must compare against the ratio between the total of money and credit in the system balanced against production.  When private industry emits unbacked credit the proper term for this is counterfeiting and it should be a felony, as under The Constitution only Congress has the power to emit ("coin") currency and fix the value thereof.

When Government does this the proper term for it is taxation; whether government removes your wealth by directly confiscating it through the payment of taxes or whether it debases your purchasing power by emitting credit into the economy the impact in mathematical terms on your life is exactly identical.  In both cases your wealth is taken by the government and spent by that government as it directs.

What the government has attempted to do is protect the banksters, who effectively counterfeited nearly $20 trillion in bogus credit money from 2000-2007, from having to eat the consequences of their actions.  The consequences of not protecting them from this, that is, allowing the market to assert itself and punish these institutions for their actions, would have been that all their businesses would have failed.

But the only way to protect them from that outcome, ladies and gentlemen, is to find someone to steal the actual wealth from to put in place of the false representation of capital that resulted in their "loans" having value (that is, being able to be paid and backed by an asset.) 

Guess who they stole that wealth from?  You!

The honest way to do so is to raise taxes so you see very penny that goes into the government coffers and is then spent in this support.  The dishonest way is to deficit spend and hope the bond market doesn't throw up all over you, effectively stealing the production of the nation and transferring it to the banksters who made the bad bets.

The problem with the dishonest approach is that it's unsustainable as it is predicated on a lie.  It can only "succeed" if the government can manage to get enough people to once-again believe the lie and borrow.  But to borrow you must (1) want to, and (2) be qualified to.

Best of luck on that.... we'd be far better-served to deal honestly with the size of government and its demands on us, negotiating between government and citizen exactly what services we want and what taxes we are willing to pay to have those services.

Sadly, that negotiation is utterly absent in all of the political parties -- Democrat, Republican, and, unfortunately, Libertarian.

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User Info The Debt Bomb in forum [Market-Ticker]
Iamedwardteach
Posts: 794
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If I am not mistaken a war was started over amongst other things a 1 % tax. Genesis have you ever done the math on the total tax including deficit spending, extracted from Joe six-pack.
I for one would love to know the average tax percentage now.

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"FACT: WHEN THE DRAFT OF YOUR VESSEL EXCEEDS THE DEPTH OF THE WATER, YOU ARE MOST ASSUREDLY... AGROUND!"
Bagbalm
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They can't keep the Republic functioning. It was looted to a shell. Only question becomes what will replace it when it passes? Will it have any of the founding principles of the old republic or be like a hundred other nations of strongmen and not laws that come and go.

Reason: bad bad spelling
Genesis
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Quote:
Genesis have you ever done the math on the total tax including deficit spending, extracted from Joe six-pack.
I for one would love to know the average tax percentage now.

Just add the deficit as a percentage of GDP to the tax burden and you're there.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Flappingeagle
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Here is what scares me about the needed 40% cut in government spending. There is supposedly about 2.7 trillion in cash and 54 trillion in credit. How can that much credit possibly NOT crash the system when the government spending cuts hit? All I can foresee is a deflationary credit collapse.

Fla

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Flaps10
Posts: 5173
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seattle
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Quote:
neither of the other candidates think this is a big deal at all.


Everyone in the District of Corruption with at least a two digit IQ knows about the debt bomb.

There isn't a damn one of them which will say a word though, because that would be admitting that everyone we've elected for the past 50 years has been a full retard* or completely corrupt.

*apologies to any actual mentally disabled people out there

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"Better to die on your feet than live on your knees"
Iamedwardteach
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So does this mean If my income tax is 30%, and sales tax on purchases is on average 10% Deficit spending is 10%, my tax burden is 50%? Can that be right? Half my income off the top? If so does that mean that half my work day is taken by the state?
This can’t be right? I must be adding it up wrong.

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"FACT: WHEN THE DRAFT OF YOUR VESSEL EXCEEDS THE DEPTH OF THE WATER, YOU ARE MOST ASSUREDLY... AGROUND!"
Genesis
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You're not.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Azusgm
Posts: 2426
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Don't forget the central bank swaps.
Flaps10
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Edward,
Look up "tax freedom day" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_Freedom....

Of course this is federal income tax. If you add in the real story, you must include SS and medicare because they are just a tax on your current life energy (you just don't file a return and swallow the story that it's going in to an account and you'll get it back). It just goes in the general fund to be spent by corrupt politicians who wouldn't be happy enough to tax you at 100%

Then property taxes, gas taxes, road taxes, sales taxes, state/county/city taxes - you already paid taxes on the money in your hand but you'll pay more taxes when you spend it.

Fees, licenses, permits, etc.

Sin taxes (alcohol, tobacco, etc)

Are we at 50% yet?

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"Better to die on your feet than live on your knees"
Themortgagedude
Posts: 8853
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saint louis
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Don't forget your gas tax, cigarette tax, alcohol tax, real estate tax, personal property tax, oxygen intake tax, etc. Also don't forget that you pay both parts of social security and Medicare.

Edit - u beat me to most of them.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.

Flaps10
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Oh and don't forget: If you didn't pay 50% of your income in taxes would you really feel compelled to borrow money to buy a car?

You probably would have enough "extra" cash to purchase a car outright nearly every damn year, or at least snap up a good used one.

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"Better to die on your feet than live on your knees"
Bagbalm
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This shows how very productive we have become. If a government a couple hundred years ago took half off the top the entire population that could not run off and hide in the wilderness would die the first winter.

If we were allowed to keep what we produce or given a reasonable wage for our value to a company and save it and invest it in very short order all but a tiny fraction of the population would be very comfortable. It is an incredible flood of wealth but never enough for the pigs that choke off the flow.

If people made twice what they do now even the poor would be better off. There are always those who give to charity and just the flood of used goods and leftovers from the bounty would 'trickle down' as they say.

I saw this before the current recession. I rented a storage room and was concerned with adding that $114 payment every month. The first month I made over $600 by selling stuff I saw thrown away at the site dumpster. As soon as the economy took a dive all that stuff dried up.
Flaps10
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bagbalm wrote..
If we were allowed to keep what we produce


Really?
smiley

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"Better to die on your feet than live on your knees"
Iamedwardteach
Posts: 794
Incept: 2011-09-18

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After reflecting on what all this tax means, I have now revised my definition of debt slave. I first thought I was not a debt slave because I have no debt, but I see now that this logic is flawed. It appears I do have a debt and a substantial one at that. Half of my earnings are earmarked to pay my debt to the state whether I like it or not. When it hit me I threw up a little in my mouth. It would seem to appear that the red pill was harder to swallow than I had imagined. Can I still get the blue pill or is it too late?

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"FACT: WHEN THE DRAFT OF YOUR VESSEL EXCEEDS THE DEPTH OF THE WATER, YOU ARE MOST ASSUREDLY... AGROUND!"
Duc888
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CT, the UNconstitution State
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....most people working people are probably in the 60-65% tax bracket and don't even know it.

Quote:
How can that much credit possibly NOT crash the system when the government spending cuts hit?


Bring it the **** on. now. Tomorrow, then we'll see WHO the producers in this country are. I'd imagine MOST people will be in for a rude awakening. I'm not one of them.

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...burp
Preidt2
Posts: 552
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spokane/wash
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all the bad loans by banks were intentional backed by corrupt government.a day is coming when pol aticians are going to have to live under ground.......

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Puppets Under Destruction
Oldno7
Posts: 2141
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RECALL STATE USA
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So really there is no one that pays no tax evan if they pay no income tax.

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IT'S THE SPENDING STUPID The US must become less a government of men, and more a government of LAW.
When people lose everything and have nothing left to lose they lose it -Gerald Celente
Azusgm
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If that taxpayer files a return that wipes out his/her income tax for the year, the child tax credit cannot be applied if all that is left is self-employment tax. Kind of tough on people who are self-employed doing pick up work such as handyman, yard service, cleaning and patching it all together to try to support themselves.
Leviathan
Posts: 86
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Austin
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Quote:
The honest way to do so is to raise taxes so you see very penny that goes into the government coffers and is then spent in this support.

This is an important "governor" to government spending that has been removed. With no term limits congressman and senator's jobs are to get re-elected. In the past, they had an incentive to tell their constituents, "no". This goes for both parties:
    "I'm sorry Corporation A I can't justify that tax break because I will have to raise taxes on Corporation B." or "I'm sorry Social Special Interest A, I can't pay for that because then I'll have to take away from Social Special Interest B."

Now those same politicians have an unlimited credit card so they have no incentive to tell the people that keep them employed, "No you can't have that!"

What's worse is that the cost of that unlimited credit card is very difficult to understand. I'm still trying to come up with an illustrative list. For example, ZIRP has made a huge impact in safe yield which is severely impacting retirees monthly income not to mention pensions and insurance companies. But what are some others?

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"The inventories index rose sharply, to 0.0, it's highest reading in more than a year." -- cnbc.com
Darth
Posts: 2182
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SWVA - US
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Gary Johnson has all of the stature of a Fruit Fly in this race and in national politics. With all due respect KD, I don't understand why you elevate him to the same status of the other candidates(as bad as they themselves are).

Johnson has probably gotten 100x more national exposure from KD's Tickers than he has paid for in advertising/marketing/organization during recent months.....
Raftermanfmj
Posts: 3367
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USA
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Quote:
This shows how very productive we have become


And is also a nice trick of Fiat currency; between the borrowing, and the inflation/devaluation of the currency, pushing both husband and wife into the work force, offshoring manufacturing and subsequently importing cheaper goods and endless propaganda/circuses the ponzi has been able to creak along.

But all good ponzis must end. And they know the end is coming, thus the overt preparations for civil unrest.

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I have never wished to cater to the crowd; for what I know they do not approve, and what they approve I do not know. - Epicurus
Oderint dum metuant - Caligula & Police State USA
Morla
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Darth, the point I think is to remind people that this isn't a 2-party choice regardless of what big media and big money want you to believe. The lesser of two evils is evil. Your vote is worth exactly what you demand in exchange.. If you settle for evil then evil is all you've accomplished by voting.
Leviathan wrote..
"I'm sorry Corporation A I can't justify that tax break because I will have to raise taxes on Corporation B." or "I'm sorry Social Special Interest A, I can't pay for that because then I'll have to take away from Social Special Interest B."
Fast forward to the present tense and we hear:

"Good news Corporation B! I can't demand that you follow the law, because then I'd also have to demand that Corporation A follow the law! Look at stupid Corporations C, D, E, F, and G over there, obeying the law when they don't even have to.. No wonder they're laying off workers!"

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Fear of govt IS the government.. Statism is a pack of unbacked threats; If govt gets out of control, ignore it and go about life as you see fit. Where's your crown, King Nothing?
Yazooflesh
Posts: 5003
Incept: 2007-08-02
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One thing that has always been a constant on this forum is the math thing.

Can't get around it, no matter how one tries to minimize the problem.

We cannot service our debt...period! Not now, not ever.

If you are alive today, you will be paying the majority of your productivity into the system
going forward and receiving less and less in return.

Govern yourselves accordingly...

Themortgagedude
Posts: 8853
Incept: 2007-12-17
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saint louis
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Yazoo - there will come a time when we've had enough. You won't always see us paying in more and getting less. There will be a default and reorganization. Let's hope we get it right.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
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