24 Hours On, The HyperPartisan Media....
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-08-12 11:19
by Karl Denninger
in Politics
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24 Hours On, The HyperPartisan Media....
 

This really says it all...

The "Euro" story, incidentally, is all about transfer payments.  It even puts forward the position that all of Europe must "accept" liability for each member state's government debts!

The rest?  The same basic deal.  Budget, budget, budget.  And yet there's a cudgel in there for Ryan's backing by the banks.

Nowhere in those six stories is the fact laid bare that (1) the banks are creating credit unbacked that does not exist, thereby exerting their own taxes on the economy and (2) that government, ultimately, is no different than people -- that is, it may not spend more than it takes in via taxes on a long-term, sustainable basis.

That's all there is to the fiscal problems both Europe and the United States face.  It's not difficult at all.  It's made difficult because the media refuses to discuss the truth and people are continually sold magical unicorns that crap out pretty colored candies -- and when the candy turns out to be something dark and sticky they get upset.

This can easily be summarized as "Welcome to reality."

Ryan will of course be pilloried for trying to throw granny down the stairs.  The truth is that Ryan deserves this treatment both by the campaigns and media.  He deserves it because his so-called plan with regard to Medicare is an open fraud on all levels as it refuses to deal with the source of the problem with medical cost escalation.

Government created the problem.  It did so by creating specific mandates for health providers forcing them to provide care to people who either could not or would not pay, whether that failure was due to misfortune or choosing to buy iPhones, fancy cars, booze, cruise vacations and big houses instead of saving for medical expenses. 

Government then provided a legal shield so that activities such as collusive pricing, blatant restraint of trade and other monopolistic practices that can only be enforced with government backing were available to the medical industry. 

If all five makers of carpet get together in a room and agree to all raise their prices 20%, that's a felony.  The reason it rarely happens and "works" in a competitive market is that there is a tremendous incentive for one of the carpet manufacturers to break ranks and undercut his competition, destroying their market share and becoming wealthy while the other guys starve for business.

But in the health market this is not true.  Try to open up an MRI in your town and you will find that in order to do you need permission -- and it will be withheld if there is no "need" in your area.  What is the definition of "need"?  That prices will not be depressed by your entry into the market.

The entire purpose of a free, open and competitive market is to depress prices to the level where the most-competitive participants are still able to make what they, and only they, judge to be a satisfactory profit.

If prices fall below that level some people will exit the market and supply will ease, raising prices.  If prices are above that level some people will be attracted to the opportunity and will enter the market, increasing supply and lowering prices.  This is what a free market does.

But in the medical system the market is not allowed to work.  By mandating that Juanita the illegal Mexican immigrant, 7-1/2 months pregnant, drug-addicted and drunk, must have her premature baby delivered when she goes into labor and the child and her are both entitled to the best medical care we can provide irrespective of the fact that she has no money and is pregnant, drug-addicted and an alcoholic of her own free will not to mention that she is here illegally, the hospital is put in an untenable position -- it is forced to absorb the $2 million NICU bill with no ability to recover it from the person(s) who demanded the service.

Unfortunately this does not just extend to Juanita.  It also extends to the rest of the United States population.  If you choose to eat yourself to death, stuffing your pie hole with sugars and fast-acting carbohydrates dramatically beyond your metabolic needs, you will become fat.  This occurs due to your own free will and no amount of arguing otherwise changes that fact.  As a consequence of this, along with other deliberate choices you make, such as the decision to drink to excess, to smoke cigarettes, to use recreational drugs of various sorts (legal and illegal), to engage in risky sexual activities and more you may dramatically raise the expected amount of medical care you will require. 

By passing laws mandating that should you do these things and, instead of socking back 5, 10 or 20% of your income for reasonably-expected medical expenses later on in your life you instead decide to spend the money on cars, booze, a fancy house, cruises and gambling, or are simply less-fortunate and don't have the mental or physical prowess to earn a material surplus in your life, the medical establishment is obligated to provide you with the best treatment possible irrespective of cost we are right back in the same place.

Politicians do not wish to speak of this on either end.  Oh sure, they will put forward platitudes about "personal responsibility" but they never actually come out and delineate it in plain English, directing that language at the legions known in popular culture as People of WalMart.  (Caution: That web site, should you choose to visit it, may infest your computer -- it throws a trojan horse warning from my anti-virus software when I look there and as such I will not link it!)

Nor will they direct it at our Senior Citizens, as they know damn well that seniors are overrepresented in the polls and*****ing off voters is a good way to lose your job as a politician.  The unfortunate reality is that the point of impact for our economy and fiscal house has been beyond the typical senior's remaining lifetime for the last 20 years, which creates a horrifying problem -- fixing the Medical System, particularly things like EMTALA, is politically impossible when the beneficiaries will all die before the detonation occurs.

The fact is that the majority of our Senior Citizens are pigs.  They don't give a damn about their children who will still be here or worse, their grandchildren who are still kids and yet will absolutely get screwed when, not if, the government collapses as a consequence of what they demand.

Many of these people could be excused for being ignorant of the fundamental mathematical construct that bears on this issue, illustrated here (once again):

However, not all of them are that foolish, as most went to school back when mathematics was actually taught in class and you had to actually learn it to pass from middle school, say much less high school.

They simply don't give a damn and prattle on about how they're "owed" as "they paid in" -- never mind that the politicians at their direction as they voted for them spent the money already on other things and thus what they paid in is already gone as they demanded it be spent!

This is much like taking your $10,000 in savings and going to Vegas, gambling it away on Roulette, then complaining that the 10 large is gone.  Of course it's gone -- you blew it on something other than its intended original purpose!

Until we the people demand that politicians tell the truth, and we further sit our dear old parents (and grandparents) down and explain to them that we will not pay twice to cover the fact that they intentionally goaded government into dissipating the funds they put in for other purposes there will be no progress.

There are only two options before us as a nation -- we either force that conversation to take place or our economy, and government, detonate as those two exponential curves run away from each other.

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User Info 24 Hours On, The HyperPartisan Media.... in forum [Market-Ticker]
Clintb350
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Genesis wrote..
The unfortunate reality is that the point of impact for our economy and fiscal house has been beyond the typical senior's remaining lifetime for the last 20 years,

That would be the Greatest (WW2) Generation, no? You've said in the past that we're three to five years from hitting a funding wall, what is your current prediction and why?
Aethor
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It's a problem every time when people have a right to decide on something, that they will not pay bills for themselves. This is as true for most of the voters as it is for politicians.

I have read some days ago, on another site (Mish's blog) how a city in California, called Poway, population 47,811 if you count every man, woman, babe in a cradle and old people with one foot into the grave, took a loan of $105M "to revamp aging schools" under conditions that they won't be paying either the principal or dividends for 20 years, and by then it will balloon up to $877M in interest on top of $105M in principal, so it'll be a total of $982 owed.

And I wondered why the hell did the voters not rebel against that... until I understood:

- the old people will die anyway in 20 years time
- the mid-aged will get better school amenities for their children NOW and will not pay a dime; by the time it needs to be paid, they can simply move to another city and don't give a damn
- those perpetually on government teat won't be paying it anyway
- and the children, who will inherit the debt... well, they can move out too and not have any of that debt; but in any case they don't vote anyway, so who cares.

IMO the fact that a voter can simply move out of the city and thus not be liable for any debt of the city - be that 1 billion or 10 or 100 billions - is insane. They can indebt the city for any amount in that way, so why would they care? Why not take a loan of 200 gajillions?

Of course, this would not work if the bank giving the loan would actually have to worry about the possibility of that loan not being repaid, of the chances of a city with 48 K people - so, how many of them are gainfully employed and earn enough that they do pay significant taxes? 10K maybe, if that? - will repay 1 billion. The bank would never give them such a loan. Nobody would buy their bonds.

It would also not happen if there was a "one dollar of capital per one dollar of loan given" rule, since they couldn't find enough real dollars for all the crazy loans.

But when the bank can mark loans as AAA, resell them and not be liable, when they can get bailouts from the government, and if everything else fails, well, the managers of that bank will long since be elsewhere anyway, and not liable, and they don't even need real money but just add electrons to the account... well yes, they can give loans by gajillions.

Medicare in your case is just the same. Politicians won't be paying that bill, old people will use more than they pay (or in some cases, more than they ever paid) into the system, those on government teat already get more out of the system than they pay in, so any further movement in that direction is already to their liking; and nobody asks the children.

IMO no government should be able to take loans where the full repayment of all the principal and interest is not planned to happen while these same people are still in power... and any loan should be followed by an immediate tax increase to repay for it, so that the voters would feel the pain and then vote responsibly.

And no one should be eligible to vote who gets more out of the system than he pays in; otherwise they will just vote for more and more largesse at the expense of others.

Of course, any such changes in the system would have to be approved by current voters, and since they already got the power... no way they will take the power away from themselves.
Thus, the system is doomed, and will not reset until it collapses completely.


Mortgageguymn
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"The fact is that the majority of our Senior Citizens are pigs."

Amen. And no, they're not the "Greatest Generation". The greatest generation is mostly dead already. Avarice - the one passion that grows stronger and sweeter with old age.

Even granting that politicians are venal, it would seem to me to be good politics to run on "Fair Billing" in medicine - requiring that all medical products, services and medicines be billed out the same without regard to who is paying for it or how (H/T KD). People would be*****ed that a $4 in-hospital aspirin is billed out at $30 to an uninsured patient. Those with insurance would be PO'd that their "80/20" plan is really a 60/40 plan given the fact that the insured pays his 20% based upon an inflated (bogus) price. It is deeply distressing that no one -including Ryan - has figured out that this is a winning issue politically (although it would rain down trouble from insurance companies).
Clintb350
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Mortgage - Was referring to Gen's statement: "typical senior's remaining lifetime for the last 20 years" - going forward, it will be Boomers who will vote for their own self interest, with the wall/cliff coming within their lifetime. Want Gen's estimate of how soon...
Vernonb
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Quote:
IMO the fact that a voter can simply move out of the city and thus not be liable for any debt of the city - be that 1 billion or 10 or 100 billions - is insane. They can indebt the city for any amount in that way, so why would they care? Why not take a loan of 200 gajillions?


What we have here is the making of a ghost town. Instead of the raw materials used to support a local economy as gold that runs out, what he have is a debt bomb that cannot be paid. What sane person would want to own property or start a business in such locations? Now if people had to pay to go to such a school attitudes would change. Public education is a tool for all types of fiscal abuse.

If all were equal the persons granting the loan should be forced to eat such idiotic debt. What bothers me is how such debt is called an asset when we know it will never be paid!

Now apply this problem to the national level. The US gov't has already passed travel restrictions and for the most part they want to prevent you from leaving the country with any wealth intact.

How long before a country becomes a full police state with travel restrictions internally? The boot on the neck and the gun in the face is to make sure the bankers get theirs at any cost to liberty.

This so called self-appointed 'greatest generation' are the same type of people with the same type of mentality in WWII Germany as the collaborators that sold out their fellow citizens to the Nazis.

They did this for special favor purposely knowing they were destroying the lives of other people. In this case - future generations and their own children.

In a simply word - unsustainable. Let the bankers eat dirt! Both sides are crooks.

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Bertdilbert
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Quote:
Try to open up an MRI in your town and you will find that in order to do you need permission -- and it will be withheld if there is no "need" in your area. What is the definition of "need"? That prices will not be depressed by your entry into the market.


Those MRI machines are expensive and they are financed. Lenders do not want to end up with collateral.

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Azusgm
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+1 Aethor

I would add that IMO

1) Only property owners should be allowed to increase tax rates on property.

2) Only property owners should be allowed to cast ballots in bond issues backed by property taxes.

3) Bonds should not be issued to fund operating costs.

4) Operating budgets must be sufficient to provide for normal maintenance so that capital stock does not deteriorate to the point of needing replacement.

Pay-Go for public schools. If the idea of educating your local children is so that they can grow up and be contributing members of the community, bite the bullet and find a way to actually provide the education. What we have now is as bad as student loans for college with the caveat that the kids and the parents can try to default by moving instead of paying. In reality that does not work either because most school districts are so terribly indebted that there is no place to go to get away.
Dan721
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Article on Poway:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-08....
Quote:
The San Diego County Taxpayers Association now regrets that it endorsed the proposal.
How in the world did a Taxpayers Association EVER endorse this???

Also, the school district is said to have 33,000 students, so the tax base may be larger than the city itself.
Mgpacher
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I do not buy the idea that all senior citizens are pigs. I receive social security and Medicare paid for my pacemaker. I have other income in addition to SS, and could actually get along without it.

I understand the math -- I read you, don't I, and would be happy to see my SS cut as part of an actual plan that would work to save the country from collapse. Ok. I might feel differently, if all I had was SS. Most likely, some provision could be made for those really in need.

That takes us to a means tested SS program. No politician will touch that idea. Anyway, any saving they squeeze out of SS will just be*****ed away someplace else.

The whole system is corrupt through and through. There is no way of saving it. I refuse to say it is completely hopeless, but that is just my stubbornness. Look at the example of the town in California mentioned earlier. Ninety-five percent of the people are ignorant blockheads. Isn't that what Lenin said?

We need to make war on the media and convince them to report the truth about the crisis we face. We need to educate the people on what is going on. The blogs are just preaching to the choir. If the media could convey to their readers the true nature of the crisis we face, then maybe the people could put pressure on the politicians.

The media like things the way they are. The banks like things the way they are. The politicians, in general, like things the way they are. There are a few who want to see government cut down in size.

It is all about power. We know this, don’t we? We all read 1984. Obama has been a political animal since high school. He knows Karl Marx, John Rawls, James Cone and Saul Alinsky and others like the back of his hand. He has no particular attachment to the America we know. After the collapse, he and his friends will build a new America, based on different ideas than the old America. He knows that he will be in charge.

This is, I believe, the fundamental difference between Romney and Obama. For Romney to succeed, America has to succeed. For Obama to succeed, America does not have to succeed. In fact, it would be better if America failed. But not until after he is reelected. It is then simply a matter of consolidating all power in the Executive Branch.
Genesis
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SS isn't the problem. It's Medicare and Medicaid, mostly. And without resolving the Medical system, not "Medicare", there is no solution to these problems.

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Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Clintb350
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A small health insurance improvement - my SO has a family history of Colon problems, so she went for her first Colonoscopy in 2008 (at age 50+), which we had to pay for under a PPO with deductible. She was scheduled for a three year follow-up last August, which we did. It was coded Medical so it fell under the deductible, and cost $1,400, which we paid. However, we were under a Consumer Driven Health Care Plan (CDHP) which provides a free Colonoscopy annually for over 50. Went through a protest and got the whole thing paid for as of last week, except they paid the bills to the facilities / Dr.s, so now we are making calls to get the double payment refunded to us. Pain in the ass, but at least the new plans have some preventive care that is free, like they're trying to do with Medicare. The systems are a mess and very difficult to navigate.

Reason: sp
Morla
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Wait, you mean further institutionalizing the screwed up medical system with PPACA/Obamacare isn't going to help?! Next you'll tell me the DREAM act isn't going to bring down college tuition! ;)

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Fear of govt IS the government.. Statism is a pack of unbacked threats; If govt gets out of control, ignore it and go about life as you see fit. Where's your crown, King Nothing?
Bertdilbert
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Mgpacher,

Responsibility of elderly people needs to be taken back from the government and placed back on the family. Let the family make the decision based on what they can afford.

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Bsfootprint
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The "Greatest Generation" was the one that founded this country. It's been a downhill slide ever since.

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Quads4444
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....The bank would never give them such a loan. Nobody would buy their bonds. But when the bank can mark loans as AAA, resell them and not be liable, when they can get bailouts from the government,....

Yes. that is a big part of the problem. Also laws make it very difficult for cities to declare bankruptcy. Again it is the banksters using politicians to write laws that protect banksters from taking loses on their loans.

Like student loans. I wonder who wrote the legislation to make student loans non dis-chargeable? Here is a quiz ...a) the students or b) the bank lobby?

Super_z
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Damn Karl this is a great one. I do have one criticism/suggestion. I know that "tact" is not high on your list of priorities, but I feel like you can make your point about EMTALA without the cartoonish Juanita example. I understand what you are saying, but people that I would like to send it to, my 30ish contemporaries who are just Democrats mainly because Rethuglicans are such fiendish pricks but who are not really political, and whose minds could be swayed by reasonable arguments, would check out on the article right there with the Juanita stuff. These are the people that need to hear this most. EMTALA is a problem that trancends immigration, obviously though the thought of people who have broken the law to be able to avail themselves of it is even more egregious.

The senior citizen line is necessary bombast, that needs to be stated clearly and not danced around. My friends father who I rent my shore apartment from will be getting this copy though, he'll be nodding his head, all in on Juanita, and then his "I paid in" argument which he has made to me many times is revoked much better than I have ever been able to express it. I'll have to explain the distinction that I am not implying he is a pig as an INDIVIDUAL, but that as a POPULATION senior citizens are trying to have their cake and eat ours and our childrens too.

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Mannfm11
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clintb350 wrote..
Mortgage - Was referring to Gen's statement: "typical senior's remaining lifetime for the last 20 years" - going forward, it will be Boomers who will vote for their own self interest, with the wall/cliff coming within their lifetime. Want Gen's estimate of how soon...


Clint, boomers have been paying into this crap all their lives knowing it wouldn't be there. They startd medicare in 1968 or thereabouts. The people that started drawing it were born in 1903 or earlier. The greatest generation, according to a generational expert, were barely born at that time.

The truth of the matter is Social Security was and is a ponzi scheme. Ponzi schemes only last as long as there are more going in than exiting. The boomer generation was the more going in and they paid taxes at the maximum for most of their working lives. Don't get the idea this is a **** the Xers. It was never meant to be a fund in the first place, merely a source of revenue for the government to spend on other things and pretend they could pay in the future. We spent it on the kids, as least that is what the politians told us.

This article is worth a repost as long as this subject comes up and I can recall where it is. Doctor Foy puts the blame where it is supposed to be, the modeling of government insurance schemes starting with Medicaid and Medicare. There isn't a responsibility to stop the buck anywhere. The title is "The Right to National Bankruptcy", in line with what Karl states.

http://mises.org/daily/6110/The-Right-to....

We aren't dealing with health care. We are dealing with a government created cartel. 95% of the deliveries of babies could be done by midwives.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith

Mo
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The majority of the sheeple don't believe any of this, especially the under 40ish Obama worshipping Democrats and practically any-age female voter. They think you're just a mean selfish ******* if you tell them the truth.

Lately, I've been enjoying watching them behave as if this can go on forever as they approach the wall at 90MPH. I see rude, arrogant, posturing skeletons everywhere.

My prediction is sometime in the next 6 months, we hit the wall. Time's up.

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Anti
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Quote:
By passing laws mandating that should you do these things and, instead of socking back 5, 10 or 20% of your income for reasonably-expected medical expenses later on in your life


And this is also why Medical Savings Accounts never caught on with large companies. They held back the % from their younger workers, and naturally it got spent, somewhere... older workers, executive bonuses, but gone, then when those workers become an acuarial liability, they too are gone.

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Over the past 60 years, thousands of people have used the Gerson Therapy to recover from so-called “incurable” diseases such as cancer, diabetes, heart disease and arthritis.
Super_z
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It is possible Mo that you are a mean selfish *******, who happens to be telling them the truth. That is if your manner face to face isn't any kinder and gentler than your internet persona.

Attempting to call people's attention to the gravity of our situation is compassion on a grand scale, as opposed to the misplaced compassion that holds that there is a "universal right to health care" or other such seemingly reasonable notions.

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"Pay no attention to Caeser, Caeser doesn't have the slightest idea what's really going on." - Kurt Vonnegut RIP
Mo
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Right, Super_z. You're having great success convincing the Sheeple about all this because you're a stupendous personality.

I don't really care who will live or die anymore, outside my immediate family.

So long and thanks for the fish is my attitude.

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Super_z
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Philly
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Perhaps I am, not that I am operating on a scale that will make any difference.

"Men should be taught, as tho you taught them not; and things unknown, proposed as things forgot." Ben Franklin

Are you really trying to convince people, or are you trying to feed your ego? "Want of modesty is want of sense." That is also Ben Franklin. I am guilty of the same at times, modesty doesn't come naturally to me, and as the saying goes, it takes one to know one. There are also some Al-Ghazali quotes that come to mind, but I'd imagine 11th century Sufist philosophy won't carry much weight around here.

And thank you for making my point for me.

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"Pay no attention to Caeser, Caeser doesn't have the slightest idea what's really going on." - Kurt Vonnegut RIP
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