China Headed For The Ditch
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-08-10 08:31
by Karl Denninger
in International
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China Headed For The Ditch
 

Those who think that we're going to "muddle through" have another think coming...

China’s export growth collapsed and imports and new yuan loans trailed estimates in July, reports today showed.

Outbound shipments increased 1 percent from a year earlier and imports rose 4.7 percent, the customs bureau said. The growth in July exports compared with the 8 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey and 11.3 percent in June. Analysts estimated a 7 percent gain in imports after a 6.3 percent increase in June.

That will be the end of that.

Let's also remember that this is the time period where export shipments usually ramp up in expectation of the Christmas Season.  Goods in transit have to cross an ocean in a container ship, after which they go to warehouses and are stocked back for the holidays.

Flat exports during the month of July is extremely bad as this is the beginning of the ramp-up period that occurs every year.  This data strongly implies that orders have collapsed for the upcoming holiday season, which in turn means that the economy is going to flush as we come into the end of the year, pretty-much spot-on with what I have been expecting.

The data keeps piling up folks.... and import prices, reported this morning, are down to boot.

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User Info China Headed For The Ditch in forum [Market-Ticker]
Zarathustra
Posts: 5961
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Silver A True American Patriot!
Funkytown
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Bring It On...

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"And in knowing that you know nothing, that makes you the smartest of all." - Socrates
Tdray
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It will all turn around next month when the iPhone 5 is announced. They're just holding back their production and export numbers so stocks and real estate won't overheat. /sarc
Iou
Posts: 1027
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A True American Patriot!
The Twilight Zone
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My popcorn is cold and stale. Is it time to pop some more?

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"When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves, in the course of time, a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it."- Frédéric Bastiat
Savingsaretheway
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It's nothing that some additional monetary stimulus in the west cannot rectify. Bernanke and Draghi will just increase the amount of money chasing those Chinese goods.

Wash, rinse, repeat.
Jb350
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Detroit metro
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It is just amazing how the S&P500 is within 1% (!!!) of a 4 year high despite bad data like this as well as bad data from my own indicator.
Debtpie
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I intentionally avoid "Made in China" as much as possible...funny thing though...I'm not seeing "Made in China" as much as in the past...It's now "Made in Vietnam" and "Made in Indonesia" and believe it or not "Made in the USA":)

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A Leader, or an Opportunist? "A leader has the capacity of vision, the ability to see where things are headed before people in general see those things." Mitt Romney --- DebtPie's definition: a leader decides where "things" should head and "leads" us there.

Muscleknight
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When do the short bus riders see this?

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Lplate
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http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/economy....
10 August, 2012

Breaking down the numbers by region, exports growth to Europe has fallen off the cliff.
inline
Mpilar
Posts: 5614
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Gold
Nashville, TN
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Quote:
"Made in Vietnam"

This is something I saw a lot in the Czech Republic...talk about absolute and total crap...the "Made in China" stuff was top quality compared to stuff from that little ****hole. I've seen a few things here with that label and I avoid it like the plague...

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Aztrader
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Scottsdale, AZ
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The manufacutures have been begging us to buy again. They don't understand the concept that we have too much inventory and can't sell what we have. They pound us with emails and we saw this coming a couple of months ago.

Business is drying up big time and anything you hear about things being OK or better is not true. The BS is getting louder and louder, but in reality, businesses are getting reamed. We just were offered Tasers at a 20% discount which is very substantial. This is telling me that they aren't moving and the distributor needs the cash flow. Look out below........
Jtmo3
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Missouri
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No worries...the market is about to go green. Everybody is at home watching the olympics rather than out spending money. This will pass. Never underestimate the worlds love of china made ****. Sarcasm off.

Nomullet
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+1% YOY seems like 'muddling'

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Loves2learn
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Where I work (big transport co) in the revenue division, we are in what we call "peak" for billing. All the back to school merchandise was delivered several weeks ago and we are now billing for Christmas deliveries to retailers and wholesalers.

Either we fixed all most all of our billing problems and we are virtually billing error free. Therefore, there is no need for anyone to call for a correction or adjustment OR More likely, revenue has tanked...because it's so slow I can read several pages of a book between calls..

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Cvdoc
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Hospital admissions are down also. More stuff being down in outpatient centers. Cheaper than doing in a hospital setting. Nursing and admin people being put on furlough at several hospitals. The economic death spiral begins.

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Avianphlu
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Ulster NY
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Quote:
Those who think that we're going to "muddle through" have another think coming...


think to "thing" ?

Reason: .
Anti
Posts: 4303
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Silver
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It is still growth. We need tose numbers to go negative and stay there.

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Porkchop
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I think the end of the year will have it's own problems. With the approaching tax changes I would expect a lot of selling to avoid the higher rates we will see in 2013
Mannfm11
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China is tremendously overbuilt. They are looking at a demographic shift that will make the boomer shift look like a blip. One of the worlds greatest bubbles.

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Veedubforlife
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Let's just hope the crash comes right at the end of October, so at least his "one term proposition" will be the one truth he told during his presidency.
Krs
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Quote:
"The government is likely to respond by ramping-up its stimulus efforts, with both monetary and fiscal guns firing."

Which will only exacerbate the situation ala 2008 - 2009

Quote:
In 2008-2009, China announced spending worth $586 billion or 14 percent of its GDP , to bolster its economy in the face of a global financial crisis.

But that spending is blamed for many of China's economic problems in the years that followed such as local government debt, over investment in housing and higher inflation.

No good answers for China at this point, options that can create real growth are gone, just a matter of how long the CB's can keep the bubble inflated before we blow/pop/crash.

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Fog, smoke, and mirrors... perhaps those tin-foil-hat wearing digital dickweeds were on to something?
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Bagbalm
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I'd be more concerned that when things are bad at home countries do stupid things to their neighbors. China has already been displaying aggressive behavior.
Flaps10
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debtpie wrote..
I intentionally avoid "Made in China" as much as possible...funny thing though...I'm not seeing "Made in China" as much as in the past...It's now "Made in Vietnam" and "Made in Indonesia" and believe it or not "Made in the USA":)


I'm a label guy too. When I first started finding things made in "other than China" I embraced it as "well at least it's not Chinese". A short lived thought.

I work with a Vietnamese guy who spends about a month every year in Asia. I was bitching one day about Chinese products - less about cheap **** and lost jobs but more about wages, worker conditions and environmental damage.

He said that when Chinese wages become too high the companies will take the work to Vietnam, India, etc. You simply can't pay people in china a fair wage or give them good working conditions.

Strangely he's okay with the whole concept. A dollar a day for hard labor is better than not having a dollar according to him.


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Krs
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And the story continues to get legs, although a large % of this is being driven by a reduction in oil prices, the argument for additional QE gets harder and harder.
Quote:
Prices fell for goods and services bought from most of America's major trading partners, including China, Mexico and the European Union. That could be a sign of the recent cooling in the global economy, which has been largely caused by Europe's debt crisis.

Full story here http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/s....

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Fog, smoke, and mirrors... perhaps those tin-foil-hat wearing digital dickweeds were on to something?
Tyler Durden on the Fed – Feb 28, 2013
Lenguado
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Orlando, FL
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Cvdoc,
Quote:
The economic death spiral begins continues - deepens & steepens.

FIFY - smiley



Veedubforlife,
Quote:
Let's just hope the crash comes right at the end of October, so at least his "one term proposition" will be the one truth he told during his presidency.
What? So we can get 'The Romney' in there?

Seen this story before. Different plot. Same ending.


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I just realized... they aren't saying, "Keynesian Economics"
they're saying "Kenyansian Economics". Grass Huts for everyone!
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