HFT Mess -- A *SIMPLE* Answer
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-08-09 16:06
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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HFT Mess -- A *SIMPLE* Answer
 

I know I've said it before, but it's time to rehash the HFT debate.

First, Wired posted this:

Faster and faster turn the wheels of finance, increasing the risk that they will spin out of control, that a perturbation somewhere in the system will scale up to a global crisis in a matter of seconds. “For the first time in financial history, machines can execute trades far faster than humans can intervene,” said Andrew Haldane, a regulatory official with the Bank of England, at another recent conference. “That gap is set to widen.”

Only because we have perverted what markets are.

In addition Felix Salmon over at Reuter's Blog posted this:

A nice chart of HFT activity from 2007-2011.  It will peel your wig back.  He closed with this:

The stock market today is a war zone, where algobots fight each other over pennies, millions of times a second. Sometimes, the casualties are merely companies like Knight, and few people have much sympathy for them. But inevitably, at some point in the future, significant losses will end up being borne by investors with no direct connection to the HFT world, which is so complex that its potential systemic repercussions are literally unknowable. The potential cost is huge; the short-term benefits are minuscule. Let’s give HFT the funeral it deserves.

Again, we have forgotten what the market is supposed to be.

It is a price-discovery mechanism.

Further, The Securities Act of 1934 tells us that all means by which one may manipulate prices are illegal.  Period.  The law is clear on this point:

(2)To effect, alone or with 1 or more other persons, a series of transactions in any security registered on a national securities exchange, any security not so registered, or in connection with any security-based swap or security-based swap agreement with respect to such security creating actual or apparent active trading in such security, or raising or depressing the price of such security, for the purpose of inducing the purchase or sale of such security by others.

Got it?  The entry of orders for the purpose of other than actually transacting in the security at the given price -- that is, to induce others to trade, to raise or lower the price, to do anything other than to actually transact -- is illegal.

Period.

It is also illegal to:

(1)For the purpose of creating a false or misleading appearance of active trading in any security other than a government security, or a false or misleading appearance with respect to the market for any such security,

So the entry of an order without intent to actually execute is a violation.

All of this arm-waving is a pure refusal to enforce the law.  Nothing more, nothing less.

And enforcing the law is easy.

It requires no tax.  It requires that you make the following changes:

  • All market participants must have margin available to clear all orders they have open at any instant in time on an unaggregated basis.  Since you may only enter an order you intend to execute under black-letter law you must be required to have the margin capacity through either cash or secured and proved-available credit, to clear the trade.  Period.

  • All orders must be exposed to actual execution risk by all market participants.  Since you may only enter an order that you intend to execute the market must be able to act on each and every order you place into the market.  This requires that each order, once placed, by valid for a reasonable minimum period of time so that it is exposed to a a reasonably-large percentage (for all purposes all) of the market.  This means that the minimum human reaction time plus the round-trip time for all reasonable technologies in use must be the minimum order validity time; an order must either be valid for that time or it must execute.  A reasonable definition of this time is 2 seconds.

We can fix this problem tomorrow, as I have repeatedly pointed out.  You just make all orders valid for at least 2 seconds or until executed and at the same time you require all brokers, dealers and traders to be able to clear via either actual capital or secured and known-good margin loan capacity all orders open at any instant in time without offset or aggregation.

That's it.  You do those two things and the entire HFT "baiting game" collapses.  Any order placed must be exposed to the risk of execution and any order placed must be able to be cleared by the firm or individual that places it.

End of problem.

So why isn't anyone talking about this?

Because stealing from the public -- and others -- is all the "market" has become.  It is no longer a price-discovery mechanism and is now simply a bunch of robots trying to screw one another out of fractions of a cent at a time.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info HFT Mess -- A *SIMPLE* Answer in forum [Market-Ticker]
Steph4liberty
Posts: 1727
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Gold
Raleigh, NC
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Wow. Just wow. You knew it was bad, but geez...that's worse than my worst expectations.

Is it any wonder that so many retail investors have taken their ball/bat and gone home? How can they compete with the HFT's?

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"Man will never be free until the last Banker is strangled with the entrails of the last Politician" - unknown

"This isn't a market anymore, it's a computer game." - Drench
Avianphlu
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Gold A True American Patriot!
Ulster NY
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hory ****
Mpilar
Posts: 5816
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Gold
Nashville, TN
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Wow...that chart is scary...
Quote:
But inevitably, at some point in the future, significant losses will end up being borne by investors with no direct connection to the HFT world, which is so complex that its potential systemic repercussions are literally unknowable. The potential cost is huge; the short-term benefits are minuscule. Let’s give HFT the funeral it deserves.

Hmm, perhaps the losses haven't been "significant" - to individuals...but, if I stole a 1/10th of a penny from every American's financial transaction, suddenly, the amounts start to add up don't they? I wonder if I wouldn't be prosecuted since I stole less than a penny from each person...after all, it's 'insignificant' smiley

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- Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H. L. Mencken
- These are the times that try men's souls. - T. Paine
Seanmiller
Posts: 83
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North Denver
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But Gen...if you did that then the market volume would COLLAPSE! It would be a DISASTER! How could hucksters make a buck with no-one to shake down? [/sarcasm]
Aztrader
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Seanmiller
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North Denver
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Oh sorry...forgot the leading [sarcasm] tag.
Flaps10
Posts: 5353
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Silver
seattle
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Two seconds? Make it a minute and you're on to something. Two seconds is still HFT by intent.

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"Better to die on your feet than live on your knees"
Genesis
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Ah, but the point Flaps is that if you make it 2 seconds then anyone can hit the order. So long as the order can be hit and you can't enter and pull it before another trader can react, the entire "bait and snatch" game becomes hard.

If you then add to that a requirement that you be able to clear all outstanding orders at any given point in time the game-playing becomes immediately unprofitable. Now you only have orders that are intended to execute, which incidentally is what the law says they're supposed to be.

End of problem.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Ulegundo
Posts: 123
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Vancouver - Canada
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That video needs some music...

Tool's "Intolerance" - does the trick well
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVuVHgy-A....
Trades50
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Land of Tax and Spend
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It's become a trading algorithm and hardware platform war. No wonder volume has dropped. Computers trading against each other.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Ulegundo
Posts: 123
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I wonder what the volume would look like without the HFT? No guesses, models or paper math, just turn it off and lets take a look... Unless the flash crash was similar curiosity.
Crzymorse
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Maryland
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wonder how many people are leaving the market.

Cvdoc
Posts: 174
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Washington, DC
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The data we need to see now is what is market volume minus HFT. What really irks me is how some financial commentator equate stock market success with a healthy US economy.

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Few men desire liberty; most men wish only for a just master.
Sallust
Bearshort
Posts: 4535
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Another simple reason HFT should be banned is it's illegal. Anyone that has their series 7 knows that.
For example if a Mutual Fund gives an order to sell stock to a Dealer and the Dealer acts on that information it's called frontrunning and is clearly illegal, but for some reason our captured politicians and regulators look the other way when it's a computer "seeing" and acting on orders before they hit the floor.

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Every day I'm more embarrassed and dismayed by my government.

Nanna
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Gold
NY State
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HFT traders might win lots of little battles, my focus is on winning the war.

Let them scrabble over millicents until they blow each other up.

That paradigm has a very short half-life IMO ...

Underpinning some of the classic algos (IMO I don't know that for fact) are fractals, from some years ago, when some rocket scientist types figured out that chaos theory (stats) was rather functional for very short term trading formulae.

In a longer timeframe, those stats don't add alpha (outperformance) last I saw.


N/not investment advice, just late cocktail hour philosophical musings

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"There are fluctuations in the market that don't mean anything."Ira Gluskin, February 14, 2012
Hierophant
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I've never seen a more apt metaphor for the world economy going up in flames.
Marsgate
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Here is some music that matches that chart.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJW725wCE....

Eaglewwit
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SoCal
Banned
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Anyone else notice the correlation in that video between HFT and the markets relentless march higher in spite of deteriorating news.
Spence
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This would be good music for that chart too.

Morla
Posts: 841
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Does Dark Side of the Moon synch up well? Makes me wanna try.. Yeah, HFT is nuts, but hopefully they can't eternally defy fundamentals with only smoke and mirrors. I'm sure technical analysts have been knocked on their asses by all this nonsense. More funkadelic thinking I suppose would say that even manipulation creates chartable patterns..

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"Government is not reason; it is not eloquent; it is force. Like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master." -George Washington
Burya_rubenstein
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I'm with Flaps on this one: two seconds is way too short. The only valid reason to withdraw an order at all is no takers whatsoever. Give it a day or so.

Still, all of this is less important than how much actual stuff there is to buy with whatever money people end up with.
Radar
Posts: 19
Incept: 2007-10-27

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"The only valid reason to withdraw an order at all is no takers whatsoever".

There are many valid reasons for a trader to withdraw an order

(e.g. reversing requires canceling the original order first. A sudden spike, due to a news event, one second after you entered an order might not be conducive to your trading plan and you might want to be flat until you found out what that news was etc.)

The problem is not how much time is set as the limit as long as it's long enough for the order to be executable by someone. Maybe even 1 second would be enough. It's as Karl said: that the current system permits unexecutable trades (unless of course the HFT instantly washes them itself for the liquidity rebate)
Flappingeagle
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I think the 2 second rule is so that a human COULD hit an offer. There is no way a human could reliably trade stocks in a 2second window, not enough time to analyze any other information, just enough time to click TRADE is all there would be.

As for the market, I took my toys and went home 4 years ago.

Flap

(except for an occasional put option)

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Radar
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"There is no way a human could reliably trade stocks in a 2 second window. not enough time to analyze any other information, just enough time to click TRADE is all there would be."

You guys keep applying trading style limitations to 'everyone' that really only apply to you. Analyze what? People who daytrade purely on price action don't necessarily need to analyze during the session. That should have already been done and then executing as flawlessly as possible at pre-determined price points is what's important.

2 seconds is an eternity to some people - even those who trade manually.

e.g. If a Bid is placed on the book and I hit it, then I'm in. It doesn't matter if that order is there for a second or for a day, the amount of time it takes me to click on it is exactly the same. In that respect, 'Click trading' is all most of us, who do not auto-trade, do.

The proposed time limit doesn't mean that anyone has to trade every 2 seconds or feel compelled to rush every trade within 2 seconds of orders appearing.

Once entered, I might be in that position for minutes or even hours without ever entering another trade but I might NOT be able to be in that position, at that price, if the orders I wanted to hit were pulled before I even saw them or were instantly washed by the HFT doing all the selling to its own buys causing the price to move to the next level.

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