Ok, ok, it got to the top of the pile...

Sales.

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that June 2012 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $402.9 billion, down 1.4 percent (+/-0.5) from the revised May level, but were up 3.1 percent (+/-0.9%) from the June 2011 level. The May preliminary estimate was revised downward $1.1 billion or 0.3 percent. June sales of durable goods were down 0.7 percent (+/-0.9%)* from last month, but were up 5.7 percent (+/-1.1%) from a year ago. Sales of machinery, equipment, and supplies were down 2.8 percent from last month. Sales of nondurable goods were down 1.9 percent (+/-0.7%) from May, but were up 0.9 percent (+/-1.1%)* from last June. Sales of petroleum and petroleum products were down 5.3 percent from last month and sales of farm product raw materials were down 2.8 percent.

Inventories.

Total inventories of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were $481.9 billion at the end of June, down 0.2 percent (+/-0.4%)* from the revised May level, but were up 5.3 percent (+/- 1.1%) from the June 2011 level. The May preliminary estimate was revised downward $1.4 billion or 0.3 percent. June inventories of durable goods were up 0.2 percent (+/-0.4%)* from last month and were up 9.1 percent (+/-1.1%) from a year ago. Inventories of hardware, and plumbing and heating equipment and supplies were up 1.8 percent from last month. Inventories of nondurable goods were down 0.8 percent (+/-0.5%) from May, but were up 0.2 percent (+/-1.8%)* from last June. Inventories of petroleum and petroleum products were down 8.7 percent from last month and inventories of beer, wine, and distilled alcoholic beverages were down 2.3 percent.

Inventory:sales was 1.2, up a bit.

The sales numbers were weak; y/o/y was only up 3% -- and most of it was durables, as the non-durable sales numbers were only up 0.9% annually. 

There's a fly in the ointment though -- petroleum products were down big, mostly due to price changes rather than volume.  (Remember that this report does not adjust for price changes!)

The clear question is this -- is this an upward "blip" or is it the start of big trouble?

I'll stick with "the jury is out" for now, although the internals are a bit troubling if you believe the "adjustments" for seasonality.  Weakness was broad, with only a few categories being up on-balance and the "miscellaneous" nondurable looks to be leading with a collapse.