The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that June 2012 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $402.9 billion, down 1.4 percent (+/-0.5) from the revised May level, but were up 3.1 percent (+/-0.9%) from the June 2011 level. The May preliminary estimate was revised downward $1.1 billion or 0.3 percent. June sales of durable goods were down 0.7 percent (+/-0.9%)* from last month, but were up 5.7 percent (+/-1.1%) from a year ago. Sales of machinery, equipment, and supplies were down 2.8 percent from last month. Sales of nondurable goods were down 1.9 percent (+/-0.7%) from May, but were up 0.9 percent (+/-1.1%)* from last June. Sales of petroleum and petroleum products were down 5.3 percent from last month and sales of farm product raw materials were down 2.8 percent.
Total inventories of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were $481.9 billion at the end of June, down 0.2 percent (+/-0.4%)* from the revised May level, but were up 5.3 percent (+/- 1.1%) from the June 2011 level. The May preliminary estimate was revised downward $1.4 billion or 0.3 percent. June inventories of durable goods were up 0.2 percent (+/-0.4%)* from last month and were up 9.1 percent (+/-1.1%) from a year ago. Inventories of hardware, and plumbing and heating equipment and supplies were up 1.8 percent from last month. Inventories of nondurable goods were down 0.8 percent (+/-0.5%) from May, but were up 0.2 percent (+/-1.8%)* from last June. Inventories of petroleum and petroleum products were down 8.7 percent from last month and inventories of beer, wine, and distilled alcoholic beverages were down 2.3 percent.
Inventory:sales was 1.2, up a bit.
The sales numbers were weak; y/o/y was only up 3% -- and most of it was durables, as the non-durable sales numbers were only up 0.9% annually.
There's a fly in the ointment though -- petroleum products were down big, mostly due to price changes rather than volume. (Remember that this report does not adjust for price changes!)
The clear question is this -- is this an upward "blip" or is it the start of big trouble?
I'll stick with "the jury is out" for now, although the internals are a bit troubling if you believe the "adjustments" for seasonality. Weakness was broad, with only a few categories being up on-balance and the "miscellaneous" nondurable looks to be leading with a collapse.
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|User Info||Wholesale Trade: Nothing Special in forum [Market-Ticker]|
My limited perspective. I work for one of the largest nationwide LTL trucking companies.
Things are slowing down based upon the number of empty trailers we have that are starting to fill our storage lot.
Today we had road drivers waiting for freight and taking longer than the required 10 hour breaks until a load came in to the terminal.
We have stopped hiring for the year and we were warned to expect to have an occasional short day in the near future.
My day is typically 7-7. If I only get 40 hours a week it would seem like a vacation.
I have one regular retail delivery in a very upscale area of ATL , Perimeter Center, that is having trouble finding room for all of the inventory that is backing up. BB&B needs a better inventory system because for the last 3 months items have been going in the back door faster than they are going out the front door with a sales receipt.
This is probably one of the highest income areas of the State and there are starting to be vacancies in the mall in the area as well.
What I do is fairly simple.
People need their stuff.
It is my job to get it to them.
Not adjusting for prices? Where's the 'up' in that report?
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