RIMM: Breaking The Glass?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-08-08 14:43
by Karl Denninger
in Company Specific
Ignore this thread
RIMM: Breaking The Glass?
 

When you're in trouble and the underdog there is only one good path available to you as a corporation -- break the glass.

What I mean by that is to take actions that are outside the orthodoxy: calculated risks that change the market dynamic.

The reason to do this is that the current market dynamic is not supportive of your efforts -- if it was you wouldn't be in trouble!  Therefore, you either change the dynamics or you die -- maybe slowly, but with certainty you die.

Sprint did this by opening up their prepaid service to higher-end phones.  I called for it, they did it, it's showing up in results along with the rest of the actions they've taken.  They broke the glass and their stock price has doubled.

I have urged RIMM to "break the glass."  Specifically, I believe they should open their "new" ecosystems to Android applications.  So far..... no movement.

But today rumors emerged that Samsung might have an interest of some sort in the company.

If there is anything to this -- if it's not just some hedgies or game-players starting rumors after buying a bunch of stock to flip for a quick profit -- then this is exactly what I'm talking about.

A device -- or devices -- that would run both Android and native BB10 applications seamlessly at the same time under QNX would be a paradigm-changer. 

Samsung would gain the advantages of a real no-BS real-time operating system with its superior power and task management on its devices.  It could choose to either simply base Android on top of that, or it could choose to use and refine the existing capability to run Android apps on the upcoming BB10 release.

Neither would be particularly difficult.

Considering how Samsung is literally destroying everyone else in the Android handset market were they to do something like this it would be the sort of "stake through the heart" move that I would expect to cement their position as the pre-eminent Android handset maker.  They would gain an advantage that would be difficult if not impossible to supercede in the marketplace.

Let's assume that to get RIMM's board to bite on this they'd have to pay a 50% premium to today's market cap.  That's $11.50/share, and about $6 billion in cash.

That's quite a bit, considering that the firm only has ~$20 billion in cash now.  But using the firm's stock as currency it's only 4% of Samsung's market cap -- to lock in an advantage for itself to exploit and block anyone else from doing so.

I think there might be something to this one, if only because the numbers work and so does the technology fit.

I'm usually not much for rumors that sound like BS, but this is exactly the sort of move that RIMM needs to make.  The biggest risk is simply that they're too foolish to recognize that they need to do something paradigm-changing into what is otherwise a deteriorating business model and a market that has passed them by.

Disclosure: The author has a speculative position.

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User Info RIMM: Breaking The Glass? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Ptoemmes
Posts: 143
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What would be anyone's take on why Google might - or might not - also want RIMM to add to their Motorola (Mobility) acquisition? This could be done on the Google-Moto Android platform as well. I understand Google has to walk a unique line with Android and other smartphone makers.

Pete
Genesis
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Google has much more risk doing this because they may***** off everyone else, which would be bad. Samsung, on the other hand.....

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Rvacha
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IMHO this looks like a good deal for Samsung, but how about for RIMM? How do they keep Samsung from flattening them in hardware sales ? or perhaps they limit the license to tablets?

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"I suggest you panic." - Hugh Hendry
Genesis
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They sell Samsung the company.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Rvacha
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Cleveland
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I can see that but that is not today's rumor best as I can tell - selling a license is the rumor du jour. Admittedly it could be a mis-direction

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"I suggest you panic." - Hugh Hendry
Ssaini
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I had missed the SPRINT move as suggested by Karl few months ago. Playing too safe at that time.But not going to miss this RIMM move if it happens. Lets wait and see.

I too have started a small speculative position just like Karl.

Hurraaayyyyyyy.......! :)
Mdm
Posts: 332
Incept: 2010-10-13

South Florida
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Considering the comments the Korean government made a year back warning LG and Samsung not to rely on Google in the long-term, I could certainly see Samsung buying RIMM to have its own OS. (Story from August 2011: http://www.pcadvisor.co.uk/news/google-a.... )

A little embarrassed to admit, but I've been holding on to this falling knife since $13.49. I bought just as KD was getting very bearish on it - my mistake. At this point I was going to hold on to it at least until BB10 was released. While I could dollar average cost my shares lower, I just don't want to put any more money into this poorly managed excuse for a company.
Ishmael
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Looks like Samsung has denied any interest in RIMM.

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Hope is neither a good strategy or birth control methodology!
Imajester
Posts: 235
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Samsung bought Cambridge Silicon Radio for the patents, to help in their fight against Apple, can they be doing the same with Rimm?

Reason: spelling
Rvacha
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Samsung vs. AAPL in a CA court right now. Could buy RIMM IF they lose to AAPL I suppose

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"I suggest you panic." - Hugh Hendry
Eighty6thebs
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"you've urged rimm"... Why? What happened to TF being a commentary on the markets and not a site where a few pushed their own agenda? Why not follow the advice you give most of the time and " trade the tape they give you"? Why the vested interest in Rim? Are you so biased against apple you can't let it be? Look RIM is a public company so they get to make there own chicks good or bad.

TF is loosing credibility from stuff like this. We cheer when cmg, Facebook, and others fall and then we try and offer help to others like rim? I don't get it. Why not just pick the best way to make money and leave the personal and political agendas at the door? That was the TF I loved.

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Azengrcat
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My bet would be Microsoft to swoop in to boost their market share in mobile and to further develop the Office ecosystem. Text message integration into MS Lync via blackberry would be a neat feature for the cubicle warriors to play with.
Pitz
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As I argued in previous threads, none of the value in RIM's product offering is actually in the handsets, but rather, its in the middleware and the framework/platform itself. There's a not so insignificant number of users who *require* the sort of security, auditability, and manageability that is inherent to the BlackBerry platform. And BlackBerry users don't really have to worry about data charges, rogue software on their phones, etc.

Introducing Android applications to this platform erodes much of the value of the platform as it no longer can be managed/secured/locked down as easily. The Android apps suck back data eroding the ability of carriers to offer cheap fixed rate bulk contracts.

So RIM is sort of stuck. If they open their platform up and make it a free-for-all, they almost immediately render the product useless to most of their high-value customer base. If they don't open up the platform, they lose the consumer, non-business market. The best case scenario is that they keep the platform locked down, but migrate it to run on cheap commodity phones that are made in the hundreds of millions that normally run the Android OS. Much like IBM did by providing full OS/2 functionality on non-PS/2 machines in the mid 1990s after it became apparent that people were not going to buy PS/2's for top dollar just to take advantage of OS/2.

Genesis
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Disagree -- security profiles can allow locking it down for those customers that require it, and leave it open for those who do not (e.g. consumers.)

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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