ISM Services: About Where I Expected
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-08-03 10:27
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors
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ISM Services: About Where I Expected
 

From the ISM:

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in July for the 31st consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The NMI registered 52.6 percent in July, 0.5 percentage point higher than the 52.1 percent registered in June.

If you remember from the Richmond services I said that the ISM Services would likely come in around 51, maybe 52.  This is a bit higher than I expected, but not crazily so.  Let's look inside.

Services activity and new orders were up, which is interesting; production registered 57.2, a major increase from 51.7 last month.  But -- employment went into contraction at 49.3 from 52.3.

Do service providers smell something burning?  It would appear so, from the employment number.

Let's keep an eye on those Fed Surveys -- we've got a clear recessionary indication out of them thus far, so this month the key will be to watch those indicators and see if there's a potential for a false alarm or if they continue to confirm a weakening trend.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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Savingsaretheway
Posts: 121
Incept: 2011-12-16

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Honestly, how many times over the past three years have these indicators exerted recessionary signals only to see the economy re-accelerate a bit a few months later?

The economy will stay above water for as long as the Federal government is able to borrow a trillion dollars a year at these rates of interest.
Debtpie
Posts: 534
Incept: 2009-12-17

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Quote:
The economy will stay above water for as long as the Federal government is able to borrow a trillion dollars a year at these rates of interest.


That's it...EUTopia flourished with cheap money; and so will AmeriTopia.

It's a confidence game; the majority believe that this debt is all good...until that confidence is shaken, the ship stays afloat.

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A Leader, or an Opportunist? "A leader has the capacity of vision, the ability to see where things are headed before people in general see those things." Mitt Romney --- DebtPie's definition: a leader decides where "things" should head and "leads" us there.
Savingsaretheway
Posts: 121
Incept: 2011-12-16

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I do not think that the majoriy believes that he debt is good. The confidence lies in the belief that the Fed will be there to absorb the excess supply.

Inflation is the only thing that will pop the bond bubble, and we will not see that with everyone concerned about economic demand collapse in Europe.

Jonesapple10
Posts: 379
Incept: 2010-11-09
Green
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The markets sure are happy today; I think we'll see TC3 before TC1.
Mannfm11
Posts: 3551
Incept: 2009-02-28
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DFW, Tx
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Rally into close yesterday, large overnight move. Think they knew this was coming?

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Mayorquimby
Posts: 13909
Incept: 2008-09-18
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The Archaic Past
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Knew what was coming? ISM was mediocre and so were jobs #s.

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Mannfm11
Posts: 3551
Incept: 2009-02-28
Gold
DFW, Tx
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Mayor, it isn't a matter of whether they were mediocre. It is a matter they would spin them as fantastic. Just like the ridiculous nonsense in Europe, where Mickey Mouse tells Donald Duck they are going to invent a trillion euro in capital out of thin air, though the outfit that would collateralize it isn't about to go along. I know the stories don't matter. The machines that run the futures markets don't read the news. They merely run the program needed to force the shorts to cover and the media invents the news. We lost nearly 200,000 jobs and it was reported as a 165K gain. ISM beat expectations made by people clueless as to what to expect, save for what the last number was. Corporate profits are dependent on constant debt bubble inflation and are many times what they would be without the bubble. This is why the bear will eventually look like Greece and Spain, if only in purchasing power. These guys aren't buying, they are selling and forcing others to buy one way or another.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
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