NFP Employment Report: NOT What It Appears
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-08-03 09:01
by Karl Denninger
in Employment
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NFP Employment Report: NOT What It Appears
 

From the Bureau of Lies and Scams:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 163,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 8.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in professional and business services, food services and drinking places, and manufacturing.

Hmmm....

Weekly hours did not move; hourly wages were up two cents.  There is a problem however -- the diffusion index across all private employers was down four tenths to 56.4.  So how did we get an increase?  Manufacturing -- surprisingly enough -- had its diffusion index spike higher by 3 full points.

Let's look at the household survey, because as I noted last month the establishment survey was markedly weak compared to the household, and the establishment survey is full of games (otherwise known as the "birth-death model" among other schemes.)

And in the household survey I do not like what I see.

The total number of people of working-age went from 243.155 (million) to 243.354, or 199,000 more working-age people.  However, the number of employed people dropped from 143.202 (million) to 143.126, or an actual drop of 76,000 jobs.

Worse, the number of people not in the labor force increased from 86.770 million to 86.828, or an increase of 58,000 -- people who simply gave up.

Here's the chartwork:

Note that the "big chart" shows the monthly decline in the household survey. While annualized remains positive, the rate-of-change has gone negative.  Worse, it appars that we're putting in "lower highs" in the monthly numbers, which isn't good at all.  This bears watching...

Not-in-labor force is coming up again...

That little "hook" is a decrease in the actual number of employed people.  That is not supposed to happen, as the population increases -- therefore, there should be a nice upward trend.  While one month does not a trend make, this is a break that you would be wise not to ignore.

No help here; right on schedule the employment rate is turning back down, just as it has the last few years.  This is arguably the most-important number in the series from a standpoint of government sustainability, since only employed people pay taxes.  As such the employment rate is directly related to the size of government that is sustainable on a long-run basis.

This chart, which is simply the annualized change of employed persons adjusted to remove population changes, shows what's been happening since 2000.  Call this the "trade policy stupidity indicator" if you'd like, because that is pretty much what it is.

Bluntly, the hollowing out of the American labor force, and thus the American consumer's ability to continue to both fund government and consume goods and services, continues its decline.  At no point since December of 2006 have we seen a positive figure on that chart, and even then, during the height of the fraudulent housing bubble boom peaking in 2005-2006, net actual gains were small.

To address our government and private-sector economic malaise over the intermediate and longer term the government policies that made profitable locust-like offshoring, all of which devolve into initiation of force against the people in those lands, must be reversed.

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Wis/min
Posts: 5364
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On the border
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CNBS guest(Joe) just said recession is off the table now.


At least the CNBS reporterette questioned him on using only 1 month of data.
Mortgageguymn
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I assume that the vast bulk of offshoring is just wage & environmental arbitrage, as KD's labeled it. What percentage - if any - do you think is a result of companies legally basing themselves outside the US in order to avoid high US corporate tax rates? One of our local companies - Eaton - just bought an Irish company and will be basing the merged company there. http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/05/21/e.... I assume that having assembly done in Vietnam or Malaysia represents many more jobs (by number) being offshored, but moving your headquarters elsewhere probably means the loss of higher-paying jobs.
Hogman
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Corporate Taxes are a large piece of the puzzle
Aztrader
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End_the_bubbles
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Just as I said yesterday:

Quote:
I doubt we'll get a legitimate number tomorrow and all today's losses will be tomorrow's gains in this rigged fake bull**** "market".......
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?single....

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In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.
Mannfm11
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I believe these numbers were leaked.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
End_the_bubbles
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No numbers are "leaked" - they are created by Wall Street to serve their purposes......

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In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.
Xqqme
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January 2012 - 141637
July 2012 - 142220

583k jobs added

Headline 'Jobs Added" Numbers:

July 163k
June 80k
May 69k
April 115k
March 120k
February 227k
January 243k

1,017k headline added

hmmmmmm....
Eaglewwit
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Good is good and bad is good. There is no such thing as bad news for this market. Now with this NFP number QE should be off the table, but the number itself is good enough. IF this number had been negative 100k, than the market would be up 200 points on QE hopium.
Dbongo
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+1 Eagle. No QE needed now, but perhaps later this year. Either way 2012 shaping up to be a dandy year for the markets.

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I Heart TZA! Ben Bernanke, IMO, will go down in history as the GREATEST Central Banker of all time. Keynesian economics DOES work folks!
Ladyliberty
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Wisconsin
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The govt. numbers are a joke...

'Real' Unemployment Rate Shows Far More Jobless

snip

The government's most widely publicized unemployment rate measures only those who are out of a job and currently looking for work. It does not count discouraged potential employees who have quit looking, nor those who are underemployed — wanting to work full-time but forced to work part-time.

For that count, the government releases a separate number called the "U-6," which provides a more complete tally of how many people really are out of work.

The numbers in some cases are startling.

Consider: Nevada's U-6 rate is 22.1 percent, up from just 7.6 percent in 2007. Economically troubled California has a 20.3 percent real rate, while Rhode Island is at 18.3 percent, more than double its 8.3 percent rate in 2007.


Those numbers compare especially unfavorably to the national rate, high in itself at 14.9 percent though off its record peak of 17.2 percent in October 2009.

Only three states — Nebraska (9.1 percent), South Dakota (8.6 percent) and North Dakota (6.1 percent) — have U-6 rates under 10 percent, according to research from RBC Capital Markets.

in full

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48468748

HERE COMES THE SPIN: JOBLESS RATE RISES, GOVERNMENT SAYS 'ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED'

snip

Look, also, for the media to emphasize that jobs grew by 163,000--without noting that the number is seasonally adjusted to account for one million holiday jobs lost each year at this time, and without noting that June's job numbers were revised downwards radically, from 80,000 to 64,000.

in full

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/....

The jobs that are available are low paying and they expect it to stay that way

Low-paying jobs are here to stay

http://money.cnn.com/2012/08/02/news/eco....
Nohype
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Does the BLS talk to the federal mortgage insurers? I'm sure they don't.

BLS says the average nonsupervisory employee earns $19.52/hr and works 33.7 hours a week. Assuming a full 50-week work year, this average worker earns just under $33k/year. BLS also knows that the labor participation rate is falling sharply, which strongly implies a trend toward single-earner households.

A person earning $33k/year can afford an $84,000 initial finance balance on his or her mortgage, using traditional affordability metrics for average incomes (max 25% gross income, 5% interest, 15-year amortization).

I've been wondering why housing prices have remained so stubbornly high. But then I recalculated using 3.5% interest on a 30-year note. Wow, what a difference. Now we're on a $150,000 finance balance. And if we push it to 35% of gross income (I've heard of this happening, so bear with me), the approvable finance balance becomes $214,000! Egads.

This means that almost half of a family's take-home pay goes *just* to the payment on the roof over their heads. And that's before accounting for utilities and upkeep. The average new car costs $30k and average used is somewhere around $20k. Assuming a used-car payment of $400/mo, monthly gasoline around $175, utilities at $250, that leaves less than $200/mo for food. It also means no medical bills ever arrive, the used car never breaks, and the house never needs upkeep of any kind. Oh, and the teenagers don't have phones (yeah, right).

The first thing employers do when they smell a recession is cut hours. If this ^ is where most families today are, I expect to see more carnage in the housing sector about 180 days after the word "recession" hits the major media outlets. At this point, a rise in unemployment isn't necessary for systemic shock. We don't even have the margin to withstand a cut in hours worked of one hour per week. That's nearly $100/mo drop in earnings, which is half the food budget. It will be a choice between feed the kids, or pay the mortgage. Ugh.
Splashdown
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Meanwhile, gasoline just hit $4.00 again on the way to work this morning. After the $4+ rally in oil today, I wouldn't be the least bit suprised if the next time I fill up my gas take I'll be paying $4.25/gal for regular. Not to mention the effects of the drought on food prices.

No worries though, with the DJIA now solidly over 13k, it's all good. Clearly, after todays news, the notion of a double-dip recesion was totaly unfounded. Maybe with the promise of robust holiday sales we might even take out 14k yet this year!!

End_the_bubbles
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Quote:
No worries though, with the DJIA now solidly over 13k, it's all good. Clearly, after todays news, the notion of a double-dip recesion was totaly unfounded. Maybe with the promise of robust holiday sales we might even take out 14k yet this year!!


Yes, "The Market" will end up seeing new all time highs, as I've said repeatedly for over 2 years......

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In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.
Dbongo
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+1 ETB. Market continues to look quite strong. May not even need QE3 to get to new highs.

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I Heart TZA! Ben Bernanke, IMO, will go down in history as the GREATEST Central Banker of all time. Keynesian economics DOES work folks!
Mayorquimby
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All I'm gonna say is that I'm not shorting until you bears are bullish.

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
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Gold is theft.
Uppity_peasant
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From the administration's megaphone @ USAToady.com:

Obama adviser: Jobless rate is really 8.254%
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/....

A rare mini-slam on The Won.

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If it's true that "assault weapons" are "weapons of war" and don't belong on the streets of America, why do the police need them? Who are the police at war with?
Dbongo
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Mayor---TZA has been a nutty profitable short.

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I Heart TZA! Ben Bernanke, IMO, will go down in history as the GREATEST Central Banker of all time. Keynesian economics DOES work folks!
Eaglewwit
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It sure is amusing seeing people like Biderman claiming the market will go way down. Of course they are right on a purely fundamental and realist basis. However they have failed to realize or admit that this market is completely rigged and will not go down. I think Biderman may have even admitted it was rigged, but still has faith that it will go down. Lot's of people will go broke believing this.

I for one think the rigging theory is to keep the pig even to slightly up so no one gets to scared.
Dbongo
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Still lots of Perma's out there Eagle. They've been "collapse calling" for the past few years. Not working out real well for them. Took me two years of getting pounded trying to short this bull market to wake up but the last year has been quite profitable. Seeing no reasons to get bearish any time soon. Maybe a year or two from now.

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I Heart TZA! Ben Bernanke, IMO, will go down in history as the GREATEST Central Banker of all time. Keynesian economics DOES work folks!
Lumpeninvestor
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My local news is just pounding out articles on how great this jobs report is.

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Distributing insolvency only destroys the last remaining islands of solvency in a bankrupt world. - Charles Hugh Smith 8/23/2012
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