Auto Financing: You Don't Need Decent Credit
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-07-30 10:35
by Karl Denninger
in Consumer
Ignore this thread
Auto Financing: You Don't Need Decent Credit
 

But nobody could have seen this coming!

Sales of bonds tied to payments on subprime car loans are accelerating at the fastest pace in five years as investors seek high yields amid speculation the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at record lows until mid-2015.

This is amusing.  Truly amusing.  The "attraction" for the issuers of these Frankenstein monsters is clear, if you read a bit further down:

The subprime auto finance business has grown during the past two years as new lenders compete to make loans with rates of about 17 percent annually, while being able to finance themselves at an average rate of less than 2 percent, Moody’s Investors Service said in a July 17 report. With losses ranging from 1 percent to 3 percent, originators collect annual spreads of about 12 percent, according to the New York-based firm.

smiley

Funding costs under 2% and rates charged to borrowers of 17% -- on automobiles?!

No wonder auto sales are "up" -- fog-a-mirror loans are back, and the consumer is the one getting hosed this time.  Paying 17% for money to buy a car is just plain nuts.

This will seem to work just fine right up until that subprime borrower can't pay, at which point the game will (again) come crashing down around their ears.  The fun with these sorts of deals is that people will generally make their car payment before virtually anything else, since without a car you're not going to get to work.

Bling and "aspirational buying" by people with crap credit is still going on...

Perella’s CarFinance Capital LLC funded more than $100 million in auto loans in its first 10 months of business as it works with more than 1,500 auto dealers serving “non-prime”consumers, who now account for more than a third of U.S. car buyers, the Irvine, California-based company said in an April 24 statement announcing an expansion in Texas.

That's insane.

But you know the old saying from Citibank, right? 

So long as the music is playing you have to get up and dance.

GM, incidentally, is saying something else entirely about its future prospects in its stock price and Ford isn't doing much better...

That's the bell you hear ringing on these deals folks.

Disclosure: No position although it would be insanely delicious to make money on GM going bankrupt twice; I had a monster put-spread trade on the first blowup, and might just have to do another one, even if much smaller, just so when it blows a second time I can say I got both of them.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives
Archive Access
Get Adobe Flash player





Blogtalk 3:30 CT Mondays
Items To Look At


Discuss The Capital Markets along with daily technical analysis with our Gold Donor program.

Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker

Links and Blogroll
Our policy on reciprocal links: Send us an email with your information and why you think your blog or news site would make a good addition - in most cases reciprocal link requests will be granted.
Seeking Alpha Certified
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Looking for "The Best of Market Ticker"? Check out
Ticker Classics.

Visit the forum to discuss this and other investing-related topics; see the FAQ on the forum for information about Gold Donor status including access to our technical analysis video server.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

Market Ticker content may be reproduced or excerpted online provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media.

Submissions may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Leads on stories of current economic and political interest are always welcome. Our fax tip line is 850-897-9364; please include contact information with your transmission.

 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Showing Page 1 of 3  First123Last
User Info Auto Financing: You Don't Need Decent Credit in forum [Market-Ticker]
Sean
Posts: 1765
Incept: 2009-04-21

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
That's funny.

Back in Sept of '11 I interviewed for an IT position with a company called DriveTime.

They are creating a web site so that a person does not have to ever go to a dealer.

The idea is to use the internet 100% in the transaction from financing to delivery to your house.

The thing is that their business model is predicated on the sub-prime auto loan market!

I heard this was their business model (from the interviewer no less) and then I said, "Thank You" and promptly left!

----------
* I think Ann Barnhardt is more and more right. God help us!
* Progressives / Marxists / Communists are many things, STUPID and IMPATIENT are not two of them.
* A hot civil war is coming.
* And people wonder why I prep!

Trades50
Posts: 4214
Incept: 2007-10-30
Gold
Land of Tax and Spend
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
What, don't we have a free money policy now?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/billflax/201....

Affirmative Action In Bank Lending Policy Promises Economic Disaster

Welcome to the bizarre world of banking regulation. Despite the recent disaster wrought by affirmative action lending, Washington ratchets up still more politically correct requirements and shifts the measure of discrimination towards “disparate impact.” Even unbiased behaviors are subject to penalty unless they benefit protected classes.

It’s no longer blind justice meted equally before the law. “Diversity” has become Washington’s Holy Grail, discharging unequal justice in preference for specific outcomes. The burden on businesses expands beyond banning discrimination into virtually requiring reverse discrimination.

Recall before the Great Recession, banks supposedly did not sufficiently extend credit for minorities and less affluent customers. After considerable prodding, lenders lessened standards to accommodate federal guidelines. Politically correct underwriting practices begot financial turmoil.

Washington Mutual was only permitted to consummate a merger in 1999 after committing $120 billion (over ten years) to poor and minority borrowers. And get this: throw two percent of earnings to radicals like ACORN. WaMu subsequently suffocated under toxic debt securities.

While debased dollars and manipulated interest rates spurring mal-investment were the primary catalysts, politically charged housing quotas doused the flames of financial distress with an accelerant. It was as certain as gravity that groups heavily represented as subprime borrowers would also disproportionately stiff lenders.

As the crisis unfolded, the initial outcry blasted banks for evicting helpless homeowners. The only people losing property were those who hadn’t honored their mortgages. When borrowers put little down and don’t pay their debts it’s curious they “lost” something, leastwise “their” homes, but political correctness necessitates blaming banks.

Mounting defaults began toppling banks at taxpayer expense. Even those of us who despised TARP must concede most banks repaid Treasury at a profit. However, as my editor John Tamny surmises, by accepting bailouts, banks surrendered their moral footing to fend off excessive LIBOR-gate fines or resist Washington’s social engineering schemes.

Rather than redress the principle causes of the financial crisis: reckless monetary policy and subsidized mortgage risk, particularly the GSEs; Dodd-Frank cements systemic risk with Too-Big-To-Fail. Rather than ensure stability, it prescribes the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and increased affirmative action instead.



Congresswoman Maxine Waters (D, CA), who longs to tax “gangsta” banks out of business, inserted this in Section 342; yet exempted minority-owned banks.

----------
When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Rvacha
Posts: 8295
Incept: 2008-10-03
Gold
Cleveland
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
This time is different! /sarc I seriously just heard someone say that consumers are less likely to default on a car loan than a mortgage, so this CAN'T go wrong. Unreal.

----------
"I suggest you panic." - Hugh Hendry
Brian_cali
Posts: 182
Incept: 2011-10-22
Green
San Francisco
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
"Sub-prime" is a calculation based on the already-discredited FICO score, so I wouldn't give it too much credence. And even that number varies highly. While a 40 point "improvement" is supposed to be a huge swing, the difference between my highest and lowest "scores" is over 80 points, despite the so-called "credit" reports being identical.

It's a made-up, meaningless number, just like Libor.

The real problem is that regulation has so driven up the costs of production of a new car that the average Joe has to purchase a vehicle that costs at least $16K (at a bare minimum) just to get a new vehicle. And they're planning on keeping them a lot longer (a recent poll showed the average person expects to keep his car for ten years).

Used car sales and prices actually increased during the recession, and I sold my old car for about 200 less than I'd paid for it, new, two years earlier. The middle class doesn't have a lot of options in this economy to get transportation, and moving to the city to walk/subway/whatnot isn't an option for people who have chosen to have one or two kids (and thus cannot afford the cost of living in town).

Incidentally, the largest sub-prime lender in the USA auto market is Spanish bank Santander. Their operation funds one in five Dodges sold today, with a minimum APR of 14%.

Quote:
Congresswoman Maxine Waters (D, CA), who longs to tax “gangsta” banks out of business, inserted this in Section 342; yet exempted minority-owned banks.


Just read through Section 342 and don't see anything referring to this. Can you post the relevant language? Thanks!

Reason: Added reply at bottom
Bertdilbert
Posts: 2650
Incept: 2008-12-22
Gold
CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
This crap only exists because the Fed manipulates interest rates. Create bank deposits that yield **** and you force savers to chase **** in search of yields.

That is the result of "free money" policy.

Nice string of good tickers today Karl.

----------
Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Iou
Posts: 1023
Incept: 2009-03-16
A True American Patriot!
The Twilight Zone
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
..., just so when it blows a second time I can say I got both of them.

smiley
Go get you some!

----------
"When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves, in the course of time, a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it."- Frédéric Bastiat
Sean
Posts: 1765
Incept: 2009-04-21

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
And they're planning on keeping them a lot longer (a recent poll showed the average person expects to keep his car for ten years).


I bought mine (a 1995 Accord) very used in 2002 - Oct and it is still running ok - not great but is safe.

I plan to run it until it literally dies.

$16k MIN for a new car - BS on that!

----------
* I think Ann Barnhardt is more and more right. God help us!
* Progressives / Marxists / Communists are many things, STUPID and IMPATIENT are not two of them.
* A hot civil war is coming.
* And people wonder why I prep!

Randy123
Posts: 5767
Incept: 2008-09-24
Green
Earth
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
"Can I put some rims on this **** at 17% as well?" ---

----------
China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Brian_cali
Posts: 182
Incept: 2011-10-22
Green
San Francisco
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
I bought mine (a 1995 Accord) very used in 2002 - Oct and it is still running ok - not great but is safe.


Trouble is that your '95 Accord would be considered "unsafe" to manufacture and sell today, since it lacks a bunch of doodads like 18 airbags, special rollover cages, speed and stability control, electronic brake force distribution, anti-slip computer, etc.

All those add both cost and weight.

Congress mandates cars that can be driven into a wall at 55 and walked away from (e.g. much heavier and weighed down with safety equipment) that also will get 35 MPG on average by 2015 (e.g. needs to be lighter). Automakers have to spend boatloads of cash developing cars to meet the mandate, and that cost gets passed on to the customer.

The lighter, cheaper cars of yesteryear keep their prices up, accordingly (no pun intended). ;)

A buddy of mine at Chrysler tells me that they could manufacture and sell a reasonably reliable car that gets 55 MPG with standard engine tech today for $7,500 (and make a good profit doing it), but it would be completely street-illegal. That's one reason why automakers are looking to the emerging markets for growth -- they can sell decently-priced cars there at a profit and not get bogged down with $10K in extra cost per vehicle.

End_the_bubbles
Posts: 9515
Incept: 2009-03-25
Green
The New 3rd World
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Hardly surprising this scam is still going on. It's sickening! The only thing that holds the entire eCONomy together is continuing the ONGOING FRAUDS & SCAMS!

I talked about this **** 1 1/2 years ago:

http://tickerforum.org/akcs-www?singlepo....

http://tickerforum.org/akcs-www?singlepo....


----------

In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.
Amgrace
Posts: 2067
Incept: 2008-02-15
Gold
New Castle, PA 16101
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I remember one of our lenders sharing some research on consumers who had declared bankruptcy (this was 2005 or so). Once a person declares BK, they are 3 times as likely to do so again when compared with someone who has never done so.

Karl's highlighted quote is very telling: “non-prime”consumers, who now account for more than a third of U.S. car buyers"

ONE THIRD!! Looks like the Rally Monkey should be euphoric on the repo biz right now:)


----------
American politics as a system has ceased to function, because the system has gone from representing people to representing money. And that is something that can only go well as long as the people have at least some of that money. - Automatic Earth 3/17/2010
Trades50
Posts: 4214
Incept: 2007-10-30
Gold
Land of Tax and Spend
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
Hardly surprising this scam is still going on. It's sickening!


The same people who caused the mess are at it again, instead of being in prison.

----------
When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Rickcaird
Posts: 78
Incept: 2009-08-17

Boynton Beach, Fl
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I knew Ally bank was issuing a lot of subprime loans to GM buyers. But, I thought it was a potential Ally problem. I did not know these loans were being securitized. Who buys these loans in this economy? A double dip will be a disaster.
Jonesapple10
Posts: 379
Incept: 2010-11-09
Green
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
Once a person declares BK, they are 3 times as likely to do so again when compared with someone who has never done so.


Those same people can get a car loan with a job 1 day out of (or maybe during) BK even with repos on their record - no fn wonder they are three times as likely. If you give them a loan right away, what lesson did they learn? They are baiting them to get back into the "cycle" - after all, they depend on it.

Brian_cali
Posts: 182
Incept: 2011-10-22
Green
San Francisco
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Ally doesn't do subprime anymore. They can only do prime lending (I got the small loan for my car through them at a manufacturer-subsidized 0% rate).
Crzymorse
Posts: 1183
Incept: 2010-06-25

Maryland
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Yep, just looking at the difference between Receivable and Payables for GM tell the story. It looks like they are burning cash at a good clip (500 M a month). Cars last longer and fewer people are driving.



End_the_bubbles
Posts: 9515
Incept: 2009-03-25
Green
The New 3rd World
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
I did not know these loans were being securitized. Who buys these loans in this economy?
Pension funds.

Quote:
Ally doesn't do subprime anymore


Incorrect. ALL CREDIT IS SUBPRIME NOW. The eCONomy is in a state of slow-motion collapse and we're a nation of pretenders who act as if it's "business as usual" all the while the entire financial system and it's structure is coming apart globally.

Sure, someone can have a high "FICO" (something that is essentially meaningless now) and be called "Prime" - but that's a very temporary condition that won't last much longer.....

ALL DEBTS WILL BE DEFAULTED!!!!!

----------

In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.
Wakeupcall
Posts: 4231
Incept: 2009-06-08
Green
Hampton Roads, VA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
People have more options than one would think. Since so many people are now unemployed, downsizing from a 2 car family to a 1 car family is doable. Don't get your teenager a car. Now we're down from a 3 car family to a 1 car family. Bike to work. Sure, you can't do that in alot of places at ALL TIMES, but you can do it during certain seasons. Carpool. And you don't have to buy a brand new car. Save your money & spend some time & find a good used car on craigslist.

I'm just having a real problem feeling sorry for anyone signing for a 17% car loan. If their credit is that bad, its probably because they sat in their home w/o making payments for a couple of years. I guess the banks want to get some of their money back.

Our next car will be used from a private seller & we will be paying cash.

----------
“Nothing travels faster than the speed of light, with the possible exception of bad news, which obeys its own special laws.”
Marketpirate
Posts: 1636
Incept: 2007-11-30
Green
New York
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I'm in the market for a car right now.

This ticker explains why new and used car prices are still quite high.

Any one care to take a guess on how long it will take these sub prime car loan shenanigans going on now to blow up?

----------
The bull**** stops when the money runs out, and not a moment before.
Crzymorse
Posts: 1183
Incept: 2010-06-25

Maryland
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Lots of autoworkers would be out of work if it wasn't for the subprime folks.
Jal
Posts: 512
Incept: 2009-03-25

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Here is what I'm seeing in my suburbs.

There is at least one car, parked in the driveway of almost every house during the day.
Even if they are renting a basement suite, all those cars should be parked at a business while the people are at work.

Something is not adding up.
Gen_maximus57
Posts: 4579
Incept: 2007-09-03
Green
Tampa
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
This is going to make cars cheaper and more available 12 - 24 months from now. Thats when I'm going to buy.
Oldpool
Posts: 873
Incept: 2010-06-23
Silver
LI NY
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Buy a nice repo cheap

----------
Liberty, Comrade!
Mannfm11
Posts: 3530
Incept: 2009-02-28
Gold
DFW, Tx
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I hate to say it, but a lot of people who could fog a mirror that need money should sell their current car and get one of these loans so they can't put their title up for a title loan. I saw one of those notes and wanted to get a Catepillar and bulldoze the bastards to the ground. 26% per month. There is a title loan outfit on almost every corner here, one of the most prosperous cities on earth. 312% APR plus insurance.

The great secret is that if you take 2008-2009 out of the equation, 2010, 2011 and 2012 are the worst auto sales years since the 1980's when there were a lot fewer drivers. People are driving less and you can't stay in business making junk autos any more. Most cars, unless they are abused, will go 200,000 miles today, meaning they are good for 15 to 20 years if necessary.

----------
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Showing Page 1 of 3  First123Last