Claims: Holy Crap!
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-07-26 08:42
by Karl Denninger
in Employment
Ignore this thread
Claims: Holy Crap!
 

Talk about whipsaws....

In the week ending July 21, the advance figure for  seasonally adjusted initial claims was 353,000, a decrease of 35,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 388,000. The 4-week moving average  was 367,250, a decrease of 8,750 from the previous week's revised average of  376,000.

Meh. I like the big table, and you better pay attention to this as there was a huge spike that was not reflected in the "regular" claims number a couple of weeks back.

Uh, yeah.  Anyone recall a 250k+ change in a weekly report?  Neither do I.  But there it is, in the "regular" new claims number, and this ought to be in the employment report next week among the household numbers.

While it's a bit early for prognostication in that regard, this change in the regular state numbers, the higher-frequency numbers that flow through to the employment report, forces me to revise down my baseline to +75k, and next week that may fall further depending on what ADP and the claims report show.

There is a very real risk of a negative job print next Friday.  Be prepared.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info Claims: Holy Crap! in forum [Market-Ticker]
Frat
Posts: 1935
Incept: 2009-07-15
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Wait; what does that 'change' represent? Is that a revision, or are they trying to say that 250k people just up and ...what?

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We're ****ed. Where's Henry Bowman when you need him?
Trades50
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We will see if the Fed announces QE3 soon to attempt to jack-up the stock market again.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Debtpie
Posts: 534
Incept: 2009-12-17

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Why even bother with these numbers? Proven again and again to be whatever the people issuing them want them to be...boring!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This is news: >>More Than $100 Million in Attack Ads Fails to Move Voters<<

I believe it; ads are full of the same **** we've been dished up for decades. I've seen them all and they don't change my opinion one bit.

Romney:

Bulk of his ads > Obama sucks, look how awful he is; vote for me.

Minority of his ads > I'll cut spending and shrink government...yeah, right.


Obama:

Bulk of his ads > This is what I've done, and this is where I want to go.

Minority of his ads > Recaps Romney's "career"; he's the problem, not the solution.

As I've said, both are lying sacks; but Obama is a much better liar and way cooler. Romney is annoyingly white...even to this cracker...I just can't take him and he's a horrible liar...there's just nothing smooth about him.

Think America is going to put a Mormon in the White House...LOL...NO WAY!...yeah, it will come to that...better a Black Leftist Christian than the Mormon moron...why do you think the wacky Right keeps calling Obama a Muslim...(for them) that's the only thing worse than Mormon...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/more-100-m....

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A Leader, or an Opportunist? "A leader has the capacity of vision, the ability to see where things are headed before people in general see those things." Mitt Romney --- DebtPie's definition: a leader decides where "things" should head and "leads" us there.

Workerbee
Posts: 1398
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I'm with frat.....I'm not getting the full picture.

Could some-one type slow and elaborate?

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Prepare for Our Valley Forge
*~* Appeal to Heaven *~*
...that those "who having no appeal on earth to right them, they are left to the only remedy in such cases, an appeal to heaven." ~John Locke
Genesis
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The "Regular State" change is the number of new claimants (as an actual count, no "adjustments") for that program. "Regular State" is the 26 week "Standard" unemployment.

That's not long-term roll-down, it's new job losses.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Ilikecoffee
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Great explanation Gen. That is nasty. During building and vaction season.

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You can trust the government, ask any American Indian.

"When people lose everything and they have nothing left to lose, they lose it" Gerald Celente
Mayorquimby
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Back to school has already begun as well.

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
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Gold is theft.
Mortgageguymn
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The roving death squads will have to work overtime to get the "no longer in workforce" number commensurately higher. Keep your head down.
Swampwoman
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A lot of that spike may be due to cuts in government services. All city and county departments are being cut here.

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“A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." --Thomas Paine

Reason: Edited for clarity.
Erica712
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Do you think this is related to the slowdown in manufacturing?
Genesis
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Yes.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Colk55
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Yuck. Relatively speaking, the actual initial claims numbers aren't that terrible but that is quite the spike in the state numbers. I do remember a bigger jump from a release sometime back in January but that was around the time that claims run the highest.

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The politician's motto: If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bull****.
Degaston
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Is there some historical table showing week-by-week stats on this number that jumped from 3.105 million to 3.353 million during the July 4th week? I'm guessing that a lot of recently unemployed people who would typically start a new job in a week simply weren't started during the July 4th week where July 4th landed on Wednesday. Another thing is that a lot of enterprises have projects that end June 30th due to this being a popular date for ending the fiscal year and thus its easy to just roll off the contractors/temps who aren't needed the next fiscal year, especially if the economy is looking weak and you want to put plans on hold while you re-examine your budgets for belt-tightening.

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3/17/2013: Bullish on nothing - 100 percent in cash.

Reason: millions
Colk55
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Degaston, I don't know if there's a historical table but you can access archived releases here. Around the middle of the page is a menu where you can choose what report you want to view from which year:

http://www.ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/claim....

Another thing I notice is the decline in people receiving extended benefits YOY and the number of states offering extended benefits fell from I believe over thirty in January to four in this last report.

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The politician's motto: If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bull****.
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