I'm aware of the Hindenburg hydrogen-filled air ship that caught on fire and was destroyed in 1937, but can someone please explain the term Hindenburg from a market perspective?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_....

-Uwe-

does that guarantee the fed action now?

I seem to recall the last time we got a TON of Hindy's and nothing ever came of it because of the Fed.

I suspect that if The Fed comes in they might trigger a crash instead of forestalling one this time around...

Didn't we get two or three really close together last July-August as well?

I don't profess any knowledge at are as to what they are or how they predict anything, but I seem to remember similar things last year surrounding the cluster**** that was the debt ceiling debacle.

It feels like 2008.

Yea, It feels like 2008 but with the fed's hands tied behind it's back.

Any attempt at QE now is going to cause things to detonate, most particularly grains and oil... but also possibly treasuries... And if they go, EVERYTHING goes.

This morning on Bloomberg,

Jon Hilsenrath plants QE3 in WSJ

Stephen Roach says QE3 is 'Crack'

Yale Professor Stephen Roach says we'll "absolutely" see more Fed stimulus next week

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/stephen-r....


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872....

By JON HILSENRATH

Federal Reserve officials, impatient with the economy's sluggish growth and high unemployment, are moving closer to taking new steps to spur activity and hiring.

ince their June policy meeting, officials have made clear—in interviews, speeches and testimony to Congress—that they find the current state of the economy unacceptable. Many officials appear increasingly inclined to move unless they see evidence soon that activity is picking up on its own.

Amid the recent wave of disappointing economic news, conversation inside the Fed has turned more intensely toward the questions of how and when to move. Central bank officials could take new steps at their meeting next week, July 31 and Aug. 1, though they might wait until their September meeting to accumulate more information on the pace of growth and job gains before deciding whether to
act.
Fed officials could take some actions in combination or one after another. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, in testimony to Congress last week, listed several options under consideration, including a new program of buying mortgage-backed or Treasury securities, new commitments to keep short-term interest rates near zero beyond 2014 or an effort to push already-low benchmark short-term interest rates even lower.

Determined to keep trying to get the economy going without causing inflation, the Fed is exploring other novel measures. One idea mentioned by Mr. Bernanke in his testimony would be to use a facility the Fed calls its discount window to provide cheap credit directly to banks that make new business or consumer loans. But it isn't clear such a program would do much good when banks already have ample access to cheap credit and this kind of program doesn't appear to be winning favor at the moment.

Mr. Bernanke told Congress he wants to see more progress in reducing unemployment and he expressed frustration the economy appears to be "stuck in the mud." The Fed chairman has spoken in the past about the importance of the economy achieving what he calls "escape velocity"—growth that is fast enough to give the economy forward, self-reinforcing momentum.

well, hell, it's worked so well the first two times we might as well do it again.

Sure did Briar, it raised commodity prices so well and quickly that we had more middle class lost in the shortest amount of time in history!


OK, I made up that "factoid," but it sure sounded good (as well as any you'd hear from the talking heads).

Hindy's are nothing more than an "if then" statement.

Rally On Bitchez!!!!

lol, Frat!

If we are gonna crash, I may have to throw down the money for gold star just so I cah watch the posts.

Can I buy a gold star during a crash?

hopefully everyone's all Beared-up.

Does anyone have a view they'd share re the safety of retirement funds (401k variety) that are in a money market fund? We are out of the market finally, sort of. But the only options for my husband's 401k account are stocks, bonds, money market funds, and some sort of brokerage thing (ugh). Treasuries are not one of the options. We went for the money market funds. I know they're not FDIC insured! I know that the buck can be broken!!

It's funny. We got our non-retirement money, such as it is, out of the market a while ago and into our credit union. But each of us was uncertain about the retirement stuff, until last week. Then we both said at almost the same time - this is too crazy. Things are coming unglued.

Actually I'd prefer unglued, to Hindenburg-style explosive.

Karen, I keep wondering the same thing. My choices are Money Market, Bonds, various equity accounts, and annuity. I don't really see any place to put it.

Money Markets are going to be blown to bits if Bernanke goes to zero on reserves. That's one of the few levers he has left -- doing so will turn money market accounts into things with a negative interest rate (yeah, I know they're basically zero now, but at least it's zero!)

Some municipal income funds, bond funds trade on NYSE. That can skew data for the signal.

There are some new highs today like,
AXIS Capital Holdings pfd. Series C (AXSC)
Alliance New York Municipal Income Fund (AYN)
AllianceBernstein Global High Income Fund (AWF)
American Municipal Income Portfolio (XAA)
BlackRock Build America Bond Trust (BBN)
BlackRock Core Bond Trust (BHK)

Check out more here http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_....

"Money Markets are going to be blown to bits if Bernanke goes to zero on reserves. That's one of the few levers he has left -- doing so will turn money market accounts into things with a negative interest rate (yeah, I know they're basically zero now, but at least it's zero!)"

Thank you for replying, Karl.
When you say that they would be blown to bits, does that mean that they could go WAY down, all at once? That's what worries me. A negative interest rate, well, that I actually expect. The way things are going, a negative interest rate is a pretty small problem.

Briar, I bet a lot of people are wondering this: that is, just how much value money market accounts can lose. I feel silly, since of course I've pointed out to other people who had them that they weren't insured; that they could lose value. I didn't really expect that I'd put money in them!!! After telling other people that they were crummy!!!!! And worse, that I wouldn't know just how crummy they could end up being.

One thing - I am not going near the retirement fund's "brokerage account" option. Imagine, even if one could buy Treasuries or gold by way of it: you'd have layers of regulations and rules and unfunded insurances, beyond comprehension and beyond untangling.

I don't mean that in the bigger scheme, that a negative interest rate is trivial. I just mean that for me, for our finances, for the medium term, I could deal with it. I realize that it would be terrible for the economy as a whole, but THAT I can't control other than by voting and suchlike.

Crashes are wave 3 affairs, at higher degree.
I've tried to program markers for those on my charting software, as weekly buy side signals.
SDS, TZA, etc came very close to issuing those signals earlier this week, before retreating when the 1330 area held.

I have a hunch, based on that action, that they will extend this nonsense a little bit longer. But in my book, we are indeed VERY close to triggering what I'd call perhaps another mini crash, at least as large as the May swoon and perhaps closer to last August's.
Just give it another week or two.

Pieter: Oddly enough, that's basically what I'm thinking too. Though the depth of the move down is far too ... uhm... twitchy.. I guess.. to predict, imo.

Too many interlinking parts, too complex a system, when it goes unstable it's really gonna depend on who freaks out and who manages to hold it together.

Probably a crash is what doctor ordered for the Fed to launch QE3. The question is will it happen before Nov? After all but for the Fed market is toast!

So at wiki (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_...., thx Uwe) the mechanics of the Hindenburg Omen are:

Quote:

The Hindenburg Omen is a combination of technical factors that attempt to measure the health of the NYSE, and by extension, the stock market as a whole. The goal of the indicator is to signal increased probability of a stock market crash.

The rationale is that under "normal conditions" a substantial number of stocks may set either new annual highs or new annual lows, but not both at the same time. As a healthy market possesses a degree of uniformity, whether up or down, the simultaneous presence of many new highs and lows may signal trouble.

Interesting.