Short the cohorts!

I was wondering if you'd ticker this. Another burst bubble stock with a whole lot more downside to come.

AAPL will have the same fate, eventually.

Wait for AMZN to announce earnings and when they beat, short the***** out of it. Based on sales that we are seeing, even AMZN will see a sharp drop off.

Some old TFer has to do this:

The Fake KD covered CMG 4 years ago: (course that was when i t was $100 )

http://tickerforum.org/akcs-www?singlepo....

At 5:45 in

Still makes me giggle.

If you can't read that link...DONATE!

Another factor why this stock is still way overvalued is that the drought in the midwest is likely to increase their food costs.

haha that is a TF classic video

RIMM was 89.71 ! ha

OMG, that spoof video is SPOT ON!

I have watched the market for at least 20 years in paying attention to what screws people out of money. It seems in every bull move there is a restaurant stock that goes to the moon. Name one that worked out? Brinker hasn't done bad, but prior to today, CMG was capped at close to 5 times Brinkers $2.45 billion. Throw out MCD, which languished in the 50 range for a decade and there isn't much. The other scam has been airlines and I am sure that once they are a real buy and hold, no one will touch them.

I ate at a Chipotle about 10 years ago. Wasn't bad, but I would have never dreamed it would have been a fad. There is an outfit here called Freebirds that is in the same business. Dallas has been a center for Mexican Food and for the most part, Mexican Food hasn't lent itself to franchising or multiple store expansions very well. I remember watching the first On The Border go in on the edge of Highland Park. It was a big success. Not many people here would call that good Mexican Food today.

KD brought up AMZN. Is AMZN a book vendor or a computer company? I see it has a $100 billion market cap. Conoco-Phillips is $70 billion and pays a 4.7% dividend and I suspect if we had a real recovery, would go up significantly. AMZN has to have something happen to ever be worth what it is selling for and the price reflects hope it will do something. Once it matures, it might be worth this amount, but what do you do in the meantime?

As far as AAPL goes? Clearly they got the jump on others, but it appears to me there are some heavy hitters lining up there. MSFT is getting into the game and like them or not, it appears much of their future is tied to mobile devises or at least getting into that game. Price is going to be a component of these phones, as it appears they roll over every 2 years. I think, as Karl has pointed out, there is going to be competition for the service and the best deals are going to come from buying your own phone and playing the monthly, no contract game. $200 or so up front is going to determine a lot of the outcome and as long as you can get coverage out of a carrier other than VZN or T, these companies are going to take more of the pie. This is a big boy game and I wouldn't forget that MSFT has territory to protect and a lot of money to do battle. Throw in GOOG, Samsung and the Europeans and we are looking at a battlefield. AAPL has a leg up on the last computing darling (DELL) in that it has actually shown profits to justify its price on a present basis. The big question being, can they maintain? This is potentially a huge market and maybe we are missing something, but I would suspect the huge Asian market is going to depend more on a lower priced unit. Plus, maybe the real game here is in the equipment to build this stuff out instead of the phones, as it appears this could be a non-stop business.

Yeah, that video never really gets old. "Chipolte" and "**** You Ben!"

I had 370 weeklies on the rec of ILOVECAPITALISM on the Lion. What a nice day. I think I might buy a six pack of real Bud instead of Old Milwaukee Light just to celebrate. PS: I am short ISRG with puts. Tgt: 450. Just saying. Heck, I only have 3 posts left. Wow Karl, from the beginning to boot. That's OK.

The CNBS crowd keeps touting stocks are cheap. Looking at their earnings and price many are expensive.

Ouch.

Shoulda bought puts.

In retrospect, the funniest thing about the CMG segment of that video is that CMG was *way* below where it is now.

Damn, I wish someone would offer me 5x sales or 40x earnings for my business 'cause I'd say "Sold -- to you!" very fast.

-Uwe-

"Damn, I wish someone would offer me 5x sales or 40x earnings for my business 'cause I'd say "Sold -- to you!" very fast"

So you think a company growing at 50% should have a similar multiple to a company growing at 5-6% (market multiple of 15x)? 40x trailing and 30x 1yr isn't bad if you truly believe the company is going to grow at 25% for the next 5-10 years (or more). Look at how apple has grown into it's stock for example. Saying I don't believe in the growth is one thing but on a discounted cash basis its not out of whack.

Magus, if AAPL grew very little at all, maybe a real 6% for the next 2 decades, it would probably be a buy and hold. My question of AAPL isn't on this account, but on the account that the competition hasn't shown up yet or at least been accorded its due. Remember DELL, Compaq and many more in the PC business. The trend looked great when everyone and their dog was getting an internet connection and a PC. Well, everyone and their dog is getting a smart phone and the services are being set up for them. What we are really talking about are OS's combined with gadgets. In 5 years there won't be any real difference between what AAPL puts out and others. It will be a commodity, more like the automobile, save for the fact that entry will be easier. I recall the hand held calculator boom in the 1970's. By the mid 1980's, they would add, subtract and wipe your ass all at the same time, at a fraction of the cost. Not many people were showing off their new hand held by them and the basics were $10 each. The HP's were $400 when I was in college. The last 12C I bought was $40(maybe my memory on this account is failing me, but it was much cheaper than my first one I bought in 1984. I suspect the gadgets AAPL makes will largely fall into the same category, the ipod has moved to the iphone and the android and the pads will be even more competitive. I suspect we will be looking at a $200 or less standard model in not too many years and the $500 models we see today will be for eccentrics. There will have to be huge growth in demand to make up for the shrinkage in margin. Thus, I suspect we are looking at a revenue and growth bubble and not a sustainable model.

I don't have a problem with not buying the growth story, but a stock with a 40x trailing earnings doesn't in and of itself mean anything if earnings have been and are forecasted to grow at 30%+. You may have a lower risk tolerance but you can do a DCF and see 5 years out that a market average and high growth will have the same PE and you hope several more years of growth (take CMG when it went public; 40x earnings at 40/share opening day is now at under 5x current trailing if it was still at 40x in about 6 years)