Claims: Survey Week, BAD - 386k
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-07-19 09:12
by Karl Denninger
in Employment
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Claims: Survey Week, BAD - 386k
 

So much for the allegedly-improving jobless claims numbers.

In the week ending July 14, the advance figure for  seasonally adjusted initial claims was 386,000, an increase of 34,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 352,000. The 4-week moving average  was 375,500, a decrease of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average of  377,000.

Hmmm....  That ain't good.  And this was survey week too for the employment report.

Regular readers know I ignore the headline figure though, except when it turns my head.  This time it did; that's just a nutty change.

It's possible that's people being let go after the July 4th Holiday, implying that the summer is a bust and merchants and such held on until the July 4th holiday in the hopes that the season would turn.  I might buy that from my travels during the late June time frame -- it sure looked like a bust to me with traffic levels and tourism well below my expectations.

It's too early for me to pontificate on the July employment report on a formal basis -- but the big table is showing more roll-off.  Specifically, EUC 2008 was down nearly 82,000 last week, with the total -121,985.  The only bright light was that regular state in the last week of June was down 34,000 -- but that might have been the "last gasp" seasonal attempt to meet demand for the 4th.

This was a decidedly-weak report, and continues to underline that employment is not recovering.

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User Info Claims: Survey Week, BAD - 386k in forum [Market-Ticker]
Bertdilbert
Posts: 2666
Incept: 2008-12-22
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Yes, I am wondering how Obama is going to save himself going into the election. Right now he is probably frantically preparing how to get more people on SS disability and off the available for employment number in order to save the unemployment rate from going the wrong way going into November.

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Mayorquimby
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Save himself? He's beating Romney in the polls.

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
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Gold is theft.
Trades50
Posts: 4217
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Obama was expecting the unemployment rate to be much lower. Obama's staff may panic if the number goes above 400,000 and unemployment rate ticks much higher.

So much for government stimulus.

http://www.wsiltv.com/news/local/State-E....

Illinois:

WALTONVILLE -- Dozens of state workers picket the governor's decision to close several state facilities just down the road from the governor's news conference addressing the drought.

The weather may be causing a drought for the crops but many believe the governor is drying up jobs in southern Illinois.

State employees aren't the only ones standing against the governor's decision to close multiple southern Illinois facilities. Their legislators, friends, and loved ones are right there beside them.

"It's devastating ya know, just the waiting," said union employee and wife Jennifer Pierce. "They were gonna close, then they weren't gonna close, now they're back gonna close again ya know it just keeps us in constant upheaval and it's really hard on families," she said.

"Governor governor governor Quinn-what you're doing is a sin!" chanted Jennifer Pierce's daughter.

The Pierce family is just one of dozens who came out to picket during the governor's visit to Waltonville Monday.

"I want to show them that this is the American way," said Pierce. "If you don't agree with something you can come out and say hey I don't agree with this," she explained. "You have to be respectful. I respect the governor's position. However, we feel strongly. Obviously it's affecting our family."

"Save my daddy's job," said a little girl.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Aztrader
Posts: 6650
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Scottsdale, AZ
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If retail sales don't improve soon, we are going to see an umemployment spike after school starts. I spoke to a large distributor yesterday and he saw the same thing. About 3 weeks ago, sales just stopped dead in their tracks. Orders for inventory and retail sales just disappeared. This is not the typical summer slowdown. Alot of people are very worried.
Pika-steph
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Actually here in Michigan they are blaming this on a cyclical/seasonal rotation in the auto industry.

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Rjazz117
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They always blame downturns on cyclical gyrations in the auto industry, here in MI.

My Dad has always worked for The Big 3, and has told me many times that his industry is "Feast or Famine"...but in my lifetime, I've only seen "Famine or Extreme Famine" in it.

The problem I have with that is that we've actually been in a "downturn" since the late 1960s, with very little upside...which they always tout as evidence of "recovery", but it never returns to the previous level.

How can something be said to have recovered, when it never reaches the previous level?

smiley

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Bertdilbert
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"Save himself? He's beating Romney in the polls."

Not by much. It is going to hinge on the economy. Obama is going to have to make a lot of unemployed disappear, since it seems we have turned the corner and have now entered recession. I fully expect that SS disability will be the tool utilized to make people disappear.

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Smacktle
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Are we there yet?

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Flaps10
Posts: 5172
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seattle
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Quote:
Obama is going to have to make a lot of unemployed disappear,


Nonsense. A new catchy slogan, some great bumper stickers, sling as much horse crap as possible at mittens (who, just like McCain, won't grow enough huevos to stand up to it).

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"Better to die on your feet than live on your knees"
Mannfm11
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I wonder how America is going to save themselves if they re-elect Obama. Forget about the counter, as we can get rid of Romney in 4 years. The bankers at least put it back in the economy somewhere. It goes down the toilet in the FSA and the middle class can't keep getting raped from both ends.

As far as claims go, is there a believable government report? Obama will merely blame any failure on Congress. Last week was reported by one news media I read as the lowest in 4 years or something of that sort, but I had seen lower reported figures in the spring last year. I suspect it was low due to the 4th being in the middle of the week, thus really not a week to tell people to get lost. Next week will say a lot.

All I can tell you is the street criminals are running the price of everything up like they are damn sure we are about to have a world boom and QEIII is coming for sure. This is not normal market behavior, at least the way I was taught it was supposed to work. We are looking at the cartelization of everything and it is all coming from Wall Street, via the Federal Reserve. Oil is up $12 in 10 days or so and there hasn't been any positive economic news, only speculation.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Duc888
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Well, I say it's high time he has another stimulus program, say at least 1/2 a trillion. Then lets bankroll some more ****ty "green" companies maybe to the tune of 200 B or so.... We obviously need to hire another 200,000 or so ball groping highway checkpoint mouth breathers...that should kick things into high gear!

LOL


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Lenguado
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Duc,

SHHHHhhhhhhhh.....

We all know that 'The WON' reads the TF... Don't be gifting him any ideas here.

smiley

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Widgeon
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Lame Duck Session ... $1T spending bill. That's my call.

Colk55
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Argos(In Breaking News) wrote..
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 452,960 in the week ending July 14, an increase of 10,768 from the previous week. There were 470,086 initial claims in the comparable week in 2011.
Last year, the following week's report had NSA claims at 369,207, a drop off of almost 100,000 claims. Let's see if they plunge like that again when next week's report comes out.

One other thing to keep an eye on, after NSA claims dropped to 369,207 last year, NSA claims were below 350,000 seven of the next nine weeks. The two exceptions were the week ending 08/06/11 with 354,408 NSA claims and the W/E 09/17/11 with NSA 353,820 claims. Anything above those numbers after next week's report would not be a good sign.

Coupled with some of the index reports, it's looking more like 2008 to me so far.

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Hstella
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Colk: I agree with you on 2008, except that main street never really recovered from 2008. I'm expecting a similar percentage fall, if not greater, from an already lowered level. I can't begin to tell you what might happen to wall st, as it's just too disconnected from any underlying reality. There are a lot of people that I talk with each day who are barely making it. They've been limping along for the past few years, and I think it will be very bad for them when this all hits.
Colk55
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Mann, I missed your reference to the "lowest in four years". I suspect they were talking about SA claims being the lowest for that particular week in four years.

Recent SA claims for weeks including the Fourth of July:

2012: W/E 07/07/12 - 350,000 (NSA: 439,743)
2011: W/E 07/09/11 - 408,000
2010: W/E 07/10/11 - 440,000
2009: W/E 07/04/11 - 579,000 (4th was on a Saturday: W/E 07/11 claims were 547,000)
2008: W/E 07/05/11 - 373,000 (NSA: 401,672)

Hstella, I don't think many people here would disagree that we never really recovered from 2008. I personally don't believe we ever really recovered from 2000/2001, even though jobs overall didn't take much of a hit.

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The politician's motto: If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bull****.

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