| User Info
| David Stockman: Here It Comes! in forum [Market-Ticker]
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Eaglewwit
Posts: 6054
Incept: 2007-11-30
SoCal
Banned
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Been waiting for it for 4 years now. I might be dead by the time it comes.
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Eighty6thebs
Posts: 4182
Incept: 2007-06-26
It's contained to sub-prime!
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Japan and Greece have been waiting for decades.
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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine
"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
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Digitlman
Posts: 329
Incept: 2011-03-04
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Yep. This is the song that never ends.
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Winstonsmith2009
Posts: 1060
Incept: 2009-08-05
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Digitlman
Posts: 329
Incept: 2011-03-04
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The interviewer in this piece comes across as either naive, or a Fed apologist. I suspect the stupid questions were being fed into her earpiece by her Bloomberg all-knowing masters and she had no choice but to ask them.
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Eighty6thebs
Posts: 4182
Incept: 2007-06-26
It's contained to sub-prime!
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It's such a simple but difficult argument to refute from the other side. I get hit by my banker buddy on it all the time. In a nut shell it says "why is it different this time?"
Translation - we've been running larger and larger debts for 50 years and they've never mattered before so why is it different now? Before you all pounce, clearly any logical person would acknowledge that at some point, the extra straw breaks the back of the camel but we really don't know where.
No county as strong as the United States from an economic and military standpoint has blown itself up in many decades and none has ever done it in such a globally linked world economy so we really don't know what this looks like or what will be the turning point. In fact, you might argue that in the case of the last superpower (Britain), they never really had a single event or short spurt of events that told you things hand changed forever. We may just be on the slow slope to irrelevance.
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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine
"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
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Ladyliberty
Posts: 100
Incept: 2012-05-08
Wisconsin
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I definitely agree with this portion...
"The perverse low-rate environment simply tells Congress that they can borrow a trillion dollars for 10 billion a year."
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Turningtide4536
Posts: 33
Incept: 2011-12-16
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"why is it different this time?"
Because 'Merika, hasn't actually been a world power since the 1980's, it's simply run up its credit card to pretend that it is. It's used its military might to bully its way into cheap energy, and used diabolical trade agreements and deficit-fueled handouts to keep its populace from realizing the economy is rotting to the core.
It's different this time because the rest of the world isn't going to tolerate this arrangement forever. There are barbarians at the gates, and plenty of other nations that want a share of the action, or at the very least they want a stable reserve currency to do business with-- one that doesn't empower the banksters and fraudsters on Wall Street and Capitol Hill. The rest of the world isn't as stupid as most Americans; they realize what's going on. They can tell the game is almost up on debt-based "prosperity." That's why it's different this time.
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Steelhead23
Posts: 2040
Incept: 2008-09-09
Portland OR
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http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/07/16/t....There is a growing realization among the literati that the "deciders" are going to remain on the current path until it becomes untenable. That is, a bond market collapse is going to happen. And, weirdly enough, I suspect that we TFers, worry more about that than the deciders do. BTW - In a more perfect world, David Stockman would be the Chair of the Fed.
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"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" —Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild Benjamin Bernanke
For-profit commercial banks are a menace and should be eradicated
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Winstonsmith2009
Posts: 1060
Incept: 2009-08-05
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"Before you all pounce, clearly any logical person would acknowledge that at some point, the extra straw breaks the back of the camel but we really don't know where."
Just say this, "It is different now due to the simple, mathematical law of exponential growth." Then explain if they don't recall how that applies to everything, including debt.
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Eighty6thebs
Posts: 4182
Incept: 2007-06-26
It's contained to sub-prime!
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Winston - that same law applied in 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010 and no bond creatures showed up. If you can tell me for sure WHEN they will show up, that would be a fine answer to. If it's 2030, then we all should be long the market.
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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine
"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
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Noodleman
Posts: 2389
Incept: 2008-11-01
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Congress approval rating: 16%.
Question.
Unless the election system is rigged how do 90% or more of the incumbents end up getting reelected?
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"Ammunition beats persuasion when you are looking for freedom." Will Rogers, 4 Nov 1879 - 15 Aug 1935
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Widgeon
Posts: 13481
Incept: 2007-08-30
Region formerly known as the United States
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For decades, the same surveys have shown that although 'the people' dislike CONgress, they like their own critter. Go Figure.
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Winstonsmith2009
Posts: 1060
Incept: 2009-08-05
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"The interviewer in this piece comes across as either naive, or a Fed apologist. I suspect the stupid questions were being fed into her earpiece by her Bloomberg all-knowing masters and she had no choice but to ask them."
That's exactly what I was thinking and typically think every time one of these apparently empty mainstream financial media talking heads interrupt one of the very rare individuals who actually know what they're talking about simply because what they're saying isn't the clueless "expert" line the airhead is accustomed to hearing. I want to yell, "STFU, LISTEN, let them complete their statement, and then THINK about what was said."
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Dakine2004
Posts: 9229
Incept: 2007-10-23
MD.MI.NC.SD.
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Quote:Congress approval rating: 16%.
Question.
Unless the election system is rigged how do 90% or more of the incumbents end up getting reelected? Voter: "I like MY Congressman (he brings home pork), it is all those other ones that are screwed up." |
Eighty6thebs
Posts: 4182
Incept: 2007-06-26
It's contained to sub-prime!
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1 - 2 party system. Only 2 choices on the ballots
2 - Primary process. 99% of incumbents have already won any primary needed to gain reelection as it's very hard to beat someone in a primary.
3 - Political leanings of a district don't change much.
So me in north Atlanta...maybe I hate Tom Price and wish he'd go back to being a doctor but my choices on the ballot will be Tom Price (Incumbent R) or some retard democrat who has no chance in a district that has gone republican for 20 years running. So Tom Price is back in as long as he can survive a primary challenge if he even got one.
That story is repeated all over America in every district and there is your house race in a nutshell. On the Senate side, only 1/3 are up for an election in any given cycle so 33 seats give or take. Half of those or more are in states that only elect folks from 1 political party. So maybe 10-15 seats in the senate are really in play in any election and of those maybe 5 -10 could be won.
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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine
"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
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Winstonsmith2009
Posts: 1060
Incept: 2009-08-05
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"Winston - that same law applied in 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010 and no bond creatures showed up. If you can tell me for sure WHEN they will show up, that would be a fine answer to. If it's 2030, then we all should be long the market."
Karl has posted enough charts here to illustrate many times over how different the current situation is from those prior years. It has to do with both the divergence of curves and the extreme slope of curves, both due to the application, as I said, of the law of exponents.
Reply to your comment below since I'm out of free posts:
No, I don't "have a clue" about exactly when the "bond vigilantes" will show up nor do I care in the least. What is going on is simply not sustainable for the reasons Karl and many others have explained in detail many times and if you don't agree with them then there's nothing I can add or explain differently that will convince you. So, invest whatever you want, whenever you want, wherever you want and if and when you eventually lose your ass, I don't really care one way or another about that either.
I am also positioned as well as I can be for a collapse and will actually welcome it when it comes because in my opinion the current, corrupt, rigged system is completely irredeemable and it _will take a major collapse_ for any significant change to occur. In the mean time, I'm not "worrying about it."
Reason: Reply to comment below
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Eighty6thebs
Posts: 4182
Incept: 2007-06-26
It's contained to sub-prime!
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LOL...so you really have no clue. Thanks..that's what I thought. I love KD and he's right on direction, but none of us know when this all matters. We can guess for sure...but TF is now 5 years old and not one of us would have guessed in 2007 we'd be here today with much higher debt, lower employment, lower tax revenue and huge new government programs like Obamacare but yet lower interest rates.
People put up the debt clock in Times Square in 1989 because they thought it mattered then. 24 years later and that ****er is spinning faster every day with no sure end in sight and the guy that put it up is dead.
I’ve positioned about as well as I can for a collapse but I’ll be damned if I’m going to worry about when that comes for another 25 years.
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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine
"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
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Mrbill
Posts: 7843
Incept: 2008-10-19
North Carolina
Online
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We're in the process of the government taking on all private debt. Student loans, housing, banking, etc.
This is a economy-wide re-fi into 0% interest rates, which is stimulus for the private sector in lower monthly payments (less taxes).
But, eventually even this stimulus runs out, such as when the Fed owns everything and interest rates are 0%.
That seems like a fine time to blow up. But that's more than a couple years away. It all depends what people do to front-run that, how small is the door and how on fire is it?
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Eighty6thebs
Posts: 4182
Incept: 2007-06-26
It's contained to sub-prime!
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I like that point Mr. Bill. Thoughts on how you'd invest to make money off that? Example: Government allows anyone to buy a new car at zero percent = GM soars?
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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine
"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
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Fraudster
Posts: 4173
Incept: 2011-05-10
Online
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David Stockman thinks we saved SS in 1983? Oh really?!?! Extending a ponzi is not the same as saving it.
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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte
"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
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Dji
Posts: 1245
Incept: 2009-04-21
Ponzi world 3rd rock from the sun
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Borrow another trillion says it all LOL
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Don't be a bag holder-Me
What goes up Must come Down- Alan Parsons Project
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Mrbill
Posts: 7843
Incept: 2008-10-19
North Carolina
Online
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How to make money? I don't know. You buy anything distressed now assuming eventually it'll get into the Fed purchasing window.
But what do you buy with the cash when you sell that to the Fed?
That's what matters.
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Mannfm11
Posts: 3536
Incept: 2009-02-28
DFW, Tx
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It isn't a trillion for $15 billion. It is now $8 trillion for $120 billion and it is $120 billion a year, every year and it could be easily $320 billion a year for every year from now on, if rates even got close to being back to normal. Thus, the $1 trillion they are getting free could quickly be what they have to pay out in no time at all. They borrow another $1 trillion the next 8 years, we would be looking at $640 billion at 4% and the entire trillion at 6%. It wasn't many years ago rates were 6% and at that level were considered relatively low. Only an idiot like a Krugman or that woman on Bloomberg could even mention this.
There is even more to this. The government has put on the charge card the past 5 years or so, roughly 3 years of income. This means it would take every dime to pay down the debt at zero interest. No defense, no FSA, no FSA for the rich, no bull**** grants, no paychecks for Congress, no Air Force one for Bama or Mittens. No pension for government retirees, military retiress or Granny. It will be no soon, because the checks, no matter what the number on them will be worth next to nothing.
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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
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