The first major decision facing the states is whether to accept ObamaCare's Medicaid expansion, which will dump anywhere from 16 million to 20 million more low-income people into the joint state-federal insurance program that was already in crisis. The Supreme Court ruled that this was unconstitutional coercion—"a gun to the head," the 7-2 majority called it—and that states must be given the option of not participating without penalty.
Eight Governors have already said they won't, and that may be the wise play given the new liberal vision for Medicaid.
Yep. Very wise.
Here's my problem with the program, and why I throw cold water on any claim to "fix the problem via Medicaid" with the budget (e.g. with block grants, etc)
Medicaid is already the largest line item for most statehouses, a little under a quarter of the budget on average, and nationwide Medicaid costs are expected to jump by—this is not a typo—20% in 2012.
Oh crap.
Remember, my number for acceleration in cost is historical; 9.3% (approximately; $53 billion in 1980 to $820 billion last year.)
20%? That would double Medicaid spending in 3.6 years!
It's important. If there is nothing else of value you have gotten from any of my writing over the last five years, that Ticker and the one it links to right at the top are what I hope you will take the time to read and learn. If you do that and consider it in every context where a growth rate is mentioned you now have the tools to understand virtually all of the scams run in the mainstream media and political realm.
Now think about this folks: At 25% of the budget today how many doublings do you have before you're mathematically screwed, blued and tattooed?
Answer: Two.
25% ==> 50% ==>
How much time do we have, if that 20% number is accurate, at a State level.
Seven years. Maximum.
And no, you won't get that far, since someone has to pay for the lights in the State House. My best guess is that at 50% of the budget the States' finances blow sky-high no matter what is done.
Incidentally.....
Health Care is 22% of the Federal budget (now you know why I said 2020 ain't happening "with the can-kicking that is going on now"; to do so would require the Federal Government to spend almost $1.7 trillion on Health Care by that date, every year, or about $830 billion a year more than we spend now.)
Since you can't change a government program and actually do it instantly (it takes time to pass legislation, etc) either we take this issue on right here and now or it's going to blow up before the next Presidential term is over. It is also why any plan for the Federal Government to block-grant the funds to the States either (1) changes nothing or (2) will be short in transfers to the States by that expansion of cost -- or even be cut as Gary Johnson wants to do -- is guaranteed to blow up in our faces.
PS: That (~3.5 years) is the new outside ("best case") estimate -- it could happen sooner.
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But I Thought Tickerguy Was Wrong? (Health Care) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Asimov
Posts: 104646
Incept: 2007-08-26
East Tennessee Eastern Time
Christ, 20% in one year?
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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity. If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft.Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb. What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
A friend of the wife works for a state run (medicaid) hospital as an admissions/payment counselor....basically she helps people get state aid for their medical care through Medicaid.
In years past, her clients were what you would normally think of for a state run hospital; drug addicts, prostitutes, mentally ill, by and large the lower strata of society.
However, here in 2012, she says it's a totally different deal...formally "middle class" people are now walking through the door on a daily basis...they've lost their job, or they're working but at a fraction of their old pay with no health insurance benefits...for whatever reason, they need care and their income isn't covering it...there's your 20% increase!
If the states don't expand Medicaid, the people that get shut out will just show up at the regular hospital with no (or little) ability to pay. They will be patched up and then sent to the state hospital where they will run up more bills they can't pay.
Game over folks, the number of people with someone else to pay their insurance bills is dropping dramatically...the system is going to die...ObamaCare repeal or not.
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A Leader, or an Opportunist? "A leader has the capacity of vision, the ability to see where things are headed before people in general see those things." Mitt Romney --- DebtPie's definition: a leader decides where "things" should head and "leads" us there.
And people were mocking me for calling 2016 as the e, plosion date. There you have it, right there
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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte
"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
* I think Ann Barnhardt is more and more right. God help us! * Progressives / Marxists / Communists are many things, STUPID and IMPATIENT are not two of them. * A hot civil war is coming. * And people wonder why I prep!
The whole point of Obamacare is to add lots more people into the FSA, on the one hand, and to penalize those outside the FSA by raising their premiums or fining them.
We're going in the OPPOSITE direction of 'fixing' anything and will do so until the system crashes.
Analog
Posts: 551
Incept: 2010-12-29
arkansas ozarks
Quote:
The whole point of Obamacare is to add lots more people into the FSA, on the one hand, and to penalize those outside the FSA by raising their premiums or fining them.
not to sound lunatic fringe, but....... it's becoming apparent this will bury us.
I remember Kruschev's promise to do just that.
Quote:
Later, on August 24, 1963, Khrushchev remarked in his speech in Yugoslavia, "I once said, 'We will bury you,' and I got into trouble with it. Of course we will not bury you with a shovel. Your own working class will bury you,"
There is another, better way to fight our class enemy, monopoly capital, in all its incarnations. There is a political line that can replace the dead-end, failed, decade-old, "unity against the ultra right line," which amounts to trailing behind the corporate Democrats.
Restore the Party's historic policy. The main enemy is the monopoly capitalist ruling class, all of it. While still working with progressives and independents who fight corporate power, the main task of Communists is to build the political independence of the union movement — and all the people's movements — from the two parties of monopoly.
A prominent labor educator recently proposed:
The union movement can start to build its own independent political voice, divorced from both Democrats and Republicans. With some 16 million members in its ranks in cities and towns across the country, it represents, potentially, a powerful political force that can criticize or support the Obama administration, whenever it so decides. [43]
The CPUSA, with its rich experience and, with the exception of a few leaders, its class understanding of politics, could lead the union movement on that path. It will be a long, arduous struggle, but it leads to socialism.
my first impression is i'm just a babe in the woods. maybe i'll sign up for Glen Beck.
When one compares this situation to a train going off a cliff, one could draw one set of conclusions. Increasing speed will just bring the inevitable that much sooner. However if one were to look at it like an aircraft, decreasing speed below that which sustains flight. A crash will definitely ensue. The question is which one are we? As long as the fed can dilute the fuel, they may get les burn rate, but that can be made up by pouring more into the engine. Either way you look at it the end result will be the same, however I think TPTB will do whatever is necessary to keep this bird in the air. They are in first class after all, and the pointy end usually hit’s the ground first. What’s to stop them from printing that 20%? Sure it will mean that then they will have to print 40%, then 80%. But that will buy a lot more time than 3 years. It’s not like they have an aversion to printing. Helicopter Ben didn’t get that name for nothing. As for congress, they have proven where their loyalties lie.
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"FACT: WHEN THE DRAFT OF YOUR VESSEL EXCEEDS THE DEPTH OF THE WATER, YOU ARE MOST ASSUREDLY... AGROUND!"
What’s to stop them from printing that 20%? Sure it will mean that then they will have to print 40%, then 80%.
Did you see what oil did a few - 3 Fridays ago on the rumor (I think) of more QE? - The Spain bailout I think it was - (up 9% in one ****ing day!) and that was without any Iran news!
Gas at (minimum) $10+/gallon and milk at the same will destroy this country and cause riots. Remeber there is and will be no corresponding wage sprial increase like there was in the 1970's!
As for me this weekends list of to-do's is mainly getting my place more secure - physically.
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* I think Ann Barnhardt is more and more right. God help us! * Progressives / Marxists / Communists are many things, STUPID and IMPATIENT are not two of them. * A hot civil war is coming. * And people wonder why I prep!
At least in TX the lawmakers have been aware of this at least since 2009 and were scared to death. Admittedly, this is second-hand knowledge, from someone who is close friends with TX budget deciders. My guess is that other states were aware also. Interesting thing is that it never went public, which shows disconnect between governing class and the governed.
So its either death panels, or dying in the street, or dying from starvation and riots.
The future looks so bright...
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Congress persons are all the same, republican or democrat, conservative or liberal. They talk a good game, but the results (or lack thereof) show something different.
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft.Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb. What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Now think about this folks: At 25% of the budget today how many doublings do you have before you're mathematically screwed, blued and tattooed?
Answer: Two.
Actually, I would say the answer is: 1
I can't believe that ANY State budget can withstand a single doubling from 25% to 50% of it's budget going to pay for medical care. Period. You don't need to go to 100% to destroy the system these days.
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I just realized... they aren't saying, "Keynesian Economics" they're saying "Kenyansian Economics". Grass Huts for everyone! Welcome to history’s first Double Dip Depression
20% doesn't surprise me, because this is merely a veiled attempt to dump the new costs of the program onto the states.
Here is the problem with medical care. 90% or more of it is the same care, the same treatments we got last year and the year before and the year before and the year before. If getting sued is a problem, it is the same last year and the year before and the year before, as is defensive medicine. These costs have already been added. So has the cost of free medicine. It has all been counted. So what we have is a system that is like the debt system. It is a charge on society, another bank game. Care has already been cut back. Socalled new drugs are supposed to improve productivity. I do know there are a few more old people every year. Where is the 9% extra? We are talking about a racket, not an industry. Maybe this is akin to housing, a bubble intentionally blown to disguise what is really a declining economy?
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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
There you have it, right there
