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| Liars, Damn Liars, And Budgets in forum [Market-Ticker]
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Fraudster
Posts: 4175
Incept: 2011-05-10
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If I am not mistaken, I think debt accumulation is actually accelerating over last year.
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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte
"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
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Genesis
Posts: 130747
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Approximately equal to last year (actual last year was $1.198 trillion, so it's up, but not a lot.)
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Fraudster
Posts: 4175
Incept: 2011-05-10
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I can hear the argument now. GDP is larger this year over last, but the debt accumulation is the same. See! We are growing our way out of debt.
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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte
"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
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Genesis
Posts: 130747
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Uh, debt accumulation is up 5.76%.
How much is GDP up again?
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Ocdan
Posts: 42
Incept: 2011-10-12
Orange County, Ca
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You guys kill me. You are missing the bigger picture....
You see, by September we will crack the $16,000,000,000,000 mark. Now that is something I can really believe in. You guys better get on board!
Tongue firmly planted in cheek!
Now for something a little different.
To put this debt into real life terms, assuming that the GDP numbers are correct, yeah, I know, 16 tril in debt would take more than a year's worth of gdp to pay off.
Oh well, when it all ends, it will not end well.
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Fraudster
Posts: 4175
Incept: 2011-05-10
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I know boss, but that is the argument you are going to hear from the presstitutes me thinks. The deficit as a percentage of GDP is going down, and you can bet your bottom dollar that somebody is going to troll this factoid (while ignoring the disparity between output and debt).
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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte
"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
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Genesis
Posts: 130747
Incept: 2007-06-26
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No it's not Fraud.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Fraudster
Posts: 4175
Incept: 2011-05-10
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Ok, I am going to probably get it handed to me, but if the (real) deficit is $1.2 trillion in 2011 on a $15 trillion GDP. This year we grow to about $15.5 trillion (for argument sake) on the same $1.2 trillion deficit, it strikes me that the deficit as a %age of GDP is going down. No?
EDIT: That should have read deficit as a percentage of absolute GDP.
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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte
"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
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Marvinmartian
Posts: 750
Incept: 2011-03-16
Pasadena, CA
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The "trust fund" is bogus. Its merely an accounting fiction to propagandize Social Security as a true annuity. It is no such thing.
So, the interest paid on the "nonmarketable treasuries" held by social security isn't really an expense. It should be considered like a transfer payment as it ultimately will go those drawing on social security.
A more reliable indication of net debt to examine year-to-date Federal debt excluding the interest paid to the "trust fund" and the securities held by the trust fund.
In a very few years, we are going to find out just how like a Ponzi scheme Social Security is, and how much it will truly cost. The "trust fund" money has already been spent.
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2dogs
Posts: 2941
Incept: 2009-03-25
Land of the Lost
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You can't defeat the combined effects of massive voter fraud, the Free **** Army, and the entire bought and paid for media complex. This nation is done.
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Genesis
Posts: 130747
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Fraud -- go run the percentage change on the annualized number for this year, then the percentage change on GDP.
Debt is going up faster.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Fraudster
Posts: 4175
Incept: 2011-05-10
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I am NOT disputing that KD. One economic metric that is trotted out often is budget deficit to absolute gdp and the trade deficit to absolute gdp. If the deficit is the same and GDP is higher then the deficit to gdp must be lower. And I expect them to troll this factoid, even if (as your rightly point out) debt is growing faster than output. It is still a Ponzi, I agree. But the confidence crowd will use any misleading statistic to make the situation look better than it is.
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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte
"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
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Genesis
Posts: 130747
Incept: 2007-06-26
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But the deficit ISN'T the same.
It's up about 6%. And GDP is not.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Fraudster
Posts: 4175
Incept: 2011-05-10
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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte
"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
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Genesis
Posts: 130747
Incept: 2007-06-26
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STOP! The number they're reporting is not correct. That's why I ran this Ticker.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Workerbee
Posts: 1398
Incept: 2009-03-18
* Winter is Coming *
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It seems Cavuto is covering this topic now on FNC
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Prepare for Our Valley Forge
*~* Appeal to Heaven *~*
...that those "who having no appeal on earth to right them, they are left to the only remedy in such cases, an appeal to heaven." ~John Locke
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Fraudster
Posts: 4175
Incept: 2011-05-10
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Doh! My flaw was with conflating statistics. All of that to get me back on track. Tip of the hat chief.
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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte
"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
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Donethat
Posts: 771
Incept: 2009-04-22
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Debt to the penny only accumulates the Trust fund coupon payments at the end of the month for most of those bonds, in June and December. You can back track looking at the 50 billion somewhat increase in inflow every June and December in the SS trust fund. http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/ProgData/tsOps.h.... and go for the monthly reports.... So the number they report is only correct visa vi the interest payments on 2 days of the year, Anything less than an exact year to year comparison is "not correct" as Karl observes. |
Moneyman
Posts: 13
Incept: 2011-04-12
Houston Texas
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Surely I am not the only one who thinks that debt to GDP is a meaningless number? The real number should be debt over net revenue....ie...how much of GDP can the government reasonably extract. Lets just say that number is $2.5T per year...we currently have a ratio 15.9/2.5= 6.36. Compare that to the old general rule that you could afford a house 2.5X your annual income. Of course US debt is unsecured...It is almost impossible to imagine any scenario where any of this debt is ever repaid.
Interesting fact..per the latest Z1...the market value of all household real estate in the US is 16.4T.....within a few months...we as a nation will owe more in national debt than the value of all of our homes...combined.
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Adrenaline_junky
Posts: 1869
Incept: 2007-09-14
Chicago
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Donethat wrote..visa vi Took me a moment, but presumably you mean vis-a-vis (or more correctly vis-à-vis).
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"If Goldman Sachs is doing God's work, they must be referring to the cruel God of the Old Testament who brought forth plagues, floods, and pestilence." - Me
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Drjerry
Posts: 584
Incept: 2007-11-06
Seattle
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I would love to see one of Karl's charts on this. I bet it would really be informative.
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Pay_lay_ale
Posts: 253
Incept: 2010-09-16
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"Ok, I am going to probably get it handed to me, but if the (real) deficit is $1.2 trillion in 2011 on a $15 trillion GDP. This year we grow to about $15.5 trillion (for argument sake) on the same $1.2 trillion deficit, it strikes me that the deficit as a %age of GDP is going down. No?
EDIT: That should have read deficit as a percentage of absolute GDP."
The deficit as a percentage of GDP in a given year is sort of meaningless. What's more meaningful is the DEBT to GDP ratio and if it's increasing or decreasing. We added a LOT more debt over the past year than we increased the GDP. We added $1.5 TRILLION more debt. GDP increased by 1% or so, or about $150 billion. We got 10 cents on the dollar for that new GDP.
Debt was 95% of our GDP in 2011. As of today, it's 105%. In other words, the US government's balance sheet continued to deteriorate, the deterioration just slowed a tiny bit.
And of course this doesn't include the well over $100 trillion in unfunded, unaccounted for liabilities of Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, VA pensions, government worker pensions, and Obamacare.
EDIT: Even debt:GDP isn't as meaningful as debt:tax revenue. The Government doesn't own GDP-it can only extract a portion of it. Historically, the government has never managed to extract more than 20.6% out of the economy, regardless of what tax rates and policy is. The long term average is 18%.
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Mannfm11
Posts: 3545
Incept: 2009-02-28
DFW, Tx
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you guys are forgetting about the $10 trillion or so that likely went on the backside, the unfunded version. The water building up behind the damn. The stuff they add up when they claim they cut $100 billion. Yeah, $100 billion out of a $10 trillion increase. Even carrying a fund for social security and other trusts is akin to digging a turd out of the toilet and putting it in the kitchen garbage.
As for government? What are their receipts? I am guessing about $2.5 trillion. This means they now 6 years worth of revenues. If Bennie keeps screwing with the money, the entire receipts of the US government will suddenly be payable to finance the debt.
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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
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Fraudster
Posts: 4175
Incept: 2011-05-10
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I didn't say it was right, but that is the tagline that I expect to hear on CNBS. Look guys, I am on your side.
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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte
"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
|
... Forbes published an article claiming...