Meanwhile, Back At The Lily Pad...
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-07-11 11:18
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
Ignore this thread
Meanwhile, Back At The Lily Pad...
 

I'm going to reprise a Ticker from 2011-10-18, which you can read here if you want the original, but in a political context.

There was once a nation that was comprised of fish.  The fish lived in a pond that was 64x64 in size, or 4096 square units of surface area.  As with all fish they survived on dissolved oxygen in the water, which came to the water by exchange with the atmosphere above.  Plants grew in the water, receiving their energy from the sun while recycling the waste emitted by the fish as nutrients, and the fish ate the plants. All was well in the nation of fish.

But the economy of fish was limited by its growth.  Some of the bottom where the fish lived was rather rocky, and not much suited to cultivation of aquatic plants.  Some of the bottom was fertile, and beneath still more were various rare and natural treasures, such as energy sources that the fish could use for manufacturing.

One day a bright fish that worked for a bank called "Goldfishbank" got the idea that since plants were food, and more growth is better, the nation would be served by faster "growth."  He introduced to the pond a species of lilly that reproduced very rapidly.  In fact, it produced a new lilly once each day.  He began by placing just one lilly of one unit of size, or 1/4096th of the surface of the pond, in the water.

The next day there were two, and the fish nation cheered.  Then four, and the fish nation demanded that this fine fish be President.  Then eight, and all was even better in the world.

There were, however, some fish that became alarmed, for they had not been sleeping in school.  They knew, as well, that their very survival depended on the exchange of oxygen with the air above, and that absent this exchange all of the fish would surely die.

The great prosperity that appeared to flow, however, led the scholars to be shouted down. 

Unfortunately the great prosperity resulted in the price of fish dwellings, foods and fuels rising precipitously.  The credit created by all of this growth, which had heretofore appeared to be impossible, made everyone feel wealthy.  After just eight days what was 1 lilly had become 128; both great and permanent prosperity appeared to have blessed the fish.

Two days later the pond was 12.5% covered with lillies. 

But in the middle of this prosperity there was much corruption and theft.  The interest rates charged to lend money were corrupted by some of the fish banksters, who reasoned that they were merely making very small changes in what they reported, and due to the leverage they employed, reaped billions of profits.  This they did by stealing pennies from each fish per day.  Nobody would jail them, for some of those "profits" were simply diverted to political contributions in order to make sure that the fish nation government left the thieves alone.

There were other fish that were involved in lending for dwellings, and they too scammed the public.  Some of the lenders collapsed, yet they paid only small fines while most of the fish suffered monstrous losses, with many losing their homes.

Still other parts of the fish economy were involved in health care, and they got laws passed to make differential pricing, cost-shifting and other monopoly behavior protected, for this was their way to riches.  Soon the fish nation spent twice as much on health care as a percentage of its economy as all the other fish nations, but all these monopoly protections, enacted into law, were not seen as the corruption they were.

Unemployment became a problem and the fish nation saw its standard of living decline.  This was puzzling, for the proponents of the new lily had said that such prolific growth would lead to permanent prosperity.  There were many who claimed that the lily was simply not prolific enough, and that means must be found to spur even more lilies to grow.

The three major political parties sparred over the unemployment and economic malaise.  The two largest ones offered that taxes should be increased on the most-fortunate fish and that taxes should be decreased for all fish, respectively.  But neither put forward a plan to cut down the size of the government, which was sapping an increasing amount of the economy.

The third party decided to state that it should cut the size of the government by 43%.  But it refused to address the main growth drivers of the government, that being the medical industry's special protections.  Nor did that party appear to give a damn about all the scams and frauds, which had stolen monstrous amounts of wealth from all the fish.

Soon the political debate within that third party turned to whether fish should be able to smoke pot, which was currently prohibited under penalty of law, and whether a fish named Steve should be able to marry one named Larry.  Some fish believed this was a civil right and of the utmost importance, while others believed it was Satanic. 

Yet these were the only points of political debate on which this third party focused, instead of on the financial institutions that had skimmed off all the "prosperity" that had been promised to the fish nation by the Goldfishbank and others in the financial industry, along with the medical industry that had lobbied for their special protections and which were bankrupting the fish nation's government.

A few of the third party analysts saw that in point of fact the lily issue was soon to kill all the fish and the entire fish nation economy.  They were poo-pooed and called alarmists, for the sun was still visible in the sky above, and their rising stridency was called "divisive" or that "if you simply changes your approach you could actually influence people."  They were even told that their commentary was "self-righteous."

But that commentary, labeled "divisive" and in fact dismissed with "that ends our conversation and damages both our working relationship and friendship" was based the simple fact that while just 12.5% of the pond was covered, the entire fish nation was only three days from extinction, and the last two days had been wasted arguing over gay marriage and dope smoking instead of addressing the impending and mathematically-certain disaster.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives
Archive Access
Get Adobe Flash player





Blogtalk 3:30 CT Mondays
Items To Look At


Discuss The Capital Markets along with daily technical analysis with our Gold Donor program.

Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker

Links and Blogroll
Our policy on reciprocal links: Send us an email with your information and why you think your blog or news site would make a good addition - in most cases reciprocal link requests will be granted.
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Looking for "The Best of Market Ticker"? Check out
Ticker Classics.

Visit the forum to discuss this and other investing-related topics; see the FAQ on the forum for information about Gold Donor status including access to our technical analysis video server.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be reproduced or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media or for commercial use.

Submissions may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Leads on stories of current economic and political interest are always welcome. Our fax tip line is 850-897-9364; please include contact information with your transmission.

 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
User Info Meanwhile, Back At The Lily Pad... in forum [Market-Ticker]
Steph4liberty
Posts: 1685
Incept: 2010-10-22
Gold
Raleigh, NC
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Nicely done Karl!

----------
"Man will never be free until the last Banker is strangled with the entrails of the last Politician" - unknown

"This isn't a market anymore, it's a computer game." - Drench
Fraudster
Posts: 4176
Incept: 2011-05-10
Green
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Karl Denninger wrote..
"that ends our conversation and damages both our working relationship and friendship"


That someone would say this is really telling of where most Americans are. They are completely invested in the status quo and will resist, with all fervor, any attempts to tell them to truth. If this person thinks truth telling will damage your personal/working relationship with him/her, wasn't a good, nor close, associate. Person did you a favor.

----------
"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Peteb
Posts: 128
Incept: 2010-11-16

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Aesop, move over...
Shannonlk1
Posts: 112
Incept: 2008-12-02

Raleigh
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I have come to realize people do not want to hear the truth on most any topic from politics to personal issues. For example how many people want to know that what they are wearing lookslike crap on them and they should not wear it. Very few. Not only that people that are brutally honest are seen as mean and hateful among other things. This same mentality is in every part of our daily lives. People don't want to know the truth because it hurts. for these same people, if they were in a room with an Axe killer, they would rather close their eyes and hope he goes away than to open their eyes and look for a way out. 90% of the people I know feel this way regarding everything related to what our government is doing for some many things I won't bother listing them. I just don't see this mentality changing until a major life changing event happens.

----------
Criminals thrive on the indulgence of Society's understanding.

Winstonsmith2009
Posts: 1060
Incept: 2009-08-05

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The Most IMPORTANT Video You'll Ever See

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umFnrvcS6....
Crossthread
Posts: 4568
Incept: 2007-09-04
Green
Wilmington, NC
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Question... In the Story ending...
Did ANY of the fish from the * Goldfishbank * ever get caught, *Hook Line & Sinker* and get served up to the *Gods*? Or did they just keep stealing the Bait?

(I think We know the answer to that question).

----------
“Cognitive Co-Dependency” is when a normal rational person, internalizes irrational illogical presentations, and somehow reconciles them to fit their scripted indoctrination of logical analysis.
Quote:
Samuel L. Clemens:There is NO Native Criminal Class; EXCEPT for CONgress
Banditfist
Posts: 722
Incept: 2007-09-20
Gold A True American Patriot!
Huntsville, Alabama
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The law of exponents are a bitch

----------
"Are you sure you can't remember?"
"I'm sure I can't remember" ~ Ben Bernake 25 Jun 2009

Themortgagedude
Posts: 8853
Incept: 2007-12-17
Green
saint louis
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Seems to me we've promised billions of bushels of corn to everyone while eating our seed corn at the same time.

Just a matter of time now. No way to stop this train.

----------
I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Atlasrocked
Posts: 367
Incept: 2009-03-23
Silver
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Consider 2 nations:

In Nation A, the citizens can only vote for commerce regulations
In Nation B, the citizens can vote for both commerce regulations and benefits

In nation A, the citizens can only vote for commerce regulations, so they will continually vote for healthy commerce policies that create more commerce and better living conditions, right?

In nation B, Won't a sizeable % of the lower earning population show up to vote for benefits, and disregard better regulatory choices?

As the lesser earning citizens vote for more benefits paid for by the wealthy, instead of healthy regulations, won't the wealthier citizens then start voting to protect their wealth instead of voting for healthier regulations?

As the regulations worsen due to more citizens voting for benefits issues instead of healthy regulations, won't the regulatory functions become more unhealthy and the economy begin to suffer increasingly poor health and debt accrual?
Mannfm11
Posts: 3556
Incept: 2009-02-28
Gold
DFW, Tx
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Looks like there is plenty of concern of telling people what they can't have, while not addressing what is out there that one can't have. We are at the end of having our cake and eating it too.

When I was a kid, we popped a lot of firecrackers. Do Not Hold in Hand was for bottle rockets, the big kind, though as we got older, a lot of us had bottle rocket wars as well. In any case, it might be 1000 firecrackers before one blew up in my hand or nearly did. Most cases, the fuse appeared not to light, then suddenly it went shssssss-boom all at once. This illustration of Karl's is just like that firecracker. Looks like nothing is happening, then boom.

This from the final chapter of Rise and Fall of Society by Frank Chodorov.

Quote:
Collapse of a State means a weakening of the instruments
of coercion by means of which property in the fruits of one's
labors was transferred to nonproducing rulership or its supporting
accomplices. Thereafter, maybe for centuries, free
dom prevails, men learn to dream and hope again, and the
realization of each dream through effort encourages further
fantasy and generates more effort; thus wealth multiplies,
knowledge accumulates, manners take shape, and the nonmaterial
values attain importance in man's hierarchy. A new
civilization is born. Although something of the lost civilization
is recaptured by accident, what is dug up has to be relearned;
the new civilization does not grow out of its predecessor,
but emerges from the efforts of the living. At any
rate, history tells us, a civilization no more than gets started
when a political institution attaches itself to it, feeds on it,
and in the end devours it. And the roundelay starts all over
again.

Is there no escape from the cycle? None has as yet been
discovered. Nevertheless, the search for a formula for the
"good society" has never been abandoned, hope being what
it is, and out of the laboratory of the human mind has come a
congeries of Utopias. The connotation of unreality that the
word has acquired follows from the fact that every Utopia
ignores the central operating lever of man: he seeks to satisfy
his desires with the least expenditure of effort. Every "good
society" conjured up by philosophers and reformers presupposes
an imaginary man managing his behavior by the dictates
of pure reason and keeping in mind the long-range
effects of his every act. Since there is no such man, or none
we know of, every Utopian scheme is indulgently put into the
category of a fairy tale, interesting but unreal.

To be sure, man is a reasoning animal, and if he were to
refer the matter to his reason he would conclude that something-
for-nothing is an impossibility; what one acquires "for
free" must be provided by another. He would admit that a
Society consisting entirely of consumers, say pirates, could
not exist. He would concede without argument that production
must precede consumption, that the purpose of production
is consumption, that nothing would be produced if
there were no prospect of enjoyment. He need not be an
economist to arrive at such conclusions. All that, he would
say, is common sense.

Yet, how easily does common sense take flight before the
prospect of a gratuity or an unearned profit!.....


Pages 152-154

http://mises.org/document/3091/The-Rise-....

Frank cut through the nonsense. He tells it like it is. We might all deny it, but we are all looking for an easier softer way. If you think not, who in the US plows with a mule any more? Some do, but they aren't very productive. The mother of invention is also the mother of destruction. Karl's example is merely one case. The people are begging for what is going to kill them and tune out the naysayers.


----------
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Genesis
Posts: 130801
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
In any case, it might be 1000 firecrackers before one blew up in my hand or nearly did. Most cases, the fuse appeared not to light, then suddenly it went shssssss-boom all at once. This illustration of Karl's is just like that firecracker. Looks like nothing is happening, then boom.

Yep. Been there done that.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Sailordeek
Posts: 553
Incept: 2011-06-08
Green
Boston
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
This is a perfect story for xtranormal. Similar to the the "Silver Bears," or "Buy the dip."

Well said Karl.

I haven't used xtranormal, but this would make an excellent cartoon. Reminds me of the Lorax (original). Maybe the Banksters could be the frogs. Possibilities are endless.

Reason: Final thought
Snowmizuh
Posts: 1357
Incept: 2009-03-18
Green
Alabama
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List


"The mathematics of uncontrolled growth are frightening. A single cell of the bacterium E. coli would, under ideal circumstances, divide every twenty minutes. That is not particularly disturbing until you think about it, but the fact is that bacteria multiply geometrically: one becomes two, two become four, four become eight, and so on. In this way it can be shown that in a single day, one cell of E. coli could produce a super-colony equal in size and weight to the entire planet Earth."
Michael Crichton (1969) The Andromeda Strain, Dell, N.Y. p247
Snowmizuh
Posts: 1357
Incept: 2009-03-18
Green
Alabama
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I propose "601" as the TickerCon code name for criticality.
Xorbe
Posts: 161
Incept: 2009-06-23

Bay Area, CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I'm wondering how many people can actually get from "12.5%" to "3 days left".
Flappingeagle
Posts: 1229
Incept: 2011-04-14

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
We might as well be playing musical instruments on the stern of the Titanic...

The majority are so afraid that they will lose a little bit of free-**** that they will hold onto the status quo and lose everything, and they'll take us with them.

Flap

----------
Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Bertdilbert
Posts: 2666
Incept: 2008-12-22
Gold
CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
And collectively, all the adult fishes refused to cut back, got obese as hell and decided that rather than cutting back and living withing their means, that they would continue their obese lifestyles by selling the future earnings of their little fishes into slavery.

They decided also to have fish wars in ponds all across the world. Ponds that had zero bearing on the outcome of their pond. They were cool wars using high fish tech, where a fish in the home pond would shoot from the sky a finned terrorist riding the back of a starfish. They were very patriotic fish in that pond that supported their fish troops, except when it came for paying for the fish wars. They decided that their children should be paying for the fish wars so they put that on the little fishy credit card too.

----------
Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Bertdilbert
Posts: 2666
Incept: 2008-12-22
Gold
CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Whoops too late to edit the post... adding



----------
Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Lowbeyond
Posts: 16938
Incept: 2008-02-11
Green A True American Patriot!
CO aka West NJ/East CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
we got a problem like this in grade school prollly 4th grade or so

start with 1 penny double that amount every day for a month

how much $ will you have in 30 days

i was shocked how fast the #s grew after a few days. it was illuminating



----------
Maybe it was a birdy bread-bomber from the future?!
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ