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| About Those Pensions Ben... (Social Security) in forum [Market-Ticker]
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Eighty6thebs
Posts: 4180
Incept: 2007-06-26
It's contained to sub-prime!
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"acceleration of this catastrophe"
A positive in my mind. Maybe Bernake is not so bad after all.
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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine
"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
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Standby
Posts: 1000
Incept: 2009-08-06
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ZIRP's killing everyone. I'm sure retired on savings and/or social security is second to government workers, bankers and the 1%.
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Asimov
Posts: 103847
Incept: 2007-08-26
East Tennessee Eastern Time
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When you run a government on a 2 or 4 year cycle, you get people who are only thinking about the next 2 or 4 years. They don't give a **** what happens after the next election because they won't have a horse in the race then. They will have already pocketed their winnings and gone home.
I'm not advocating longer terms btw, that's even worse. What we need is some responsibility in the electorate... And I don't see that happening without some very very drastic changes in our lives.
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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
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Steinbeck
Posts: 115
Incept: 2009-03-04
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We won't make it to 2023. The cuts will come earlier.
Another great quote from the article:
"The other key ingredients in the SS “pie” are tax receipts from workers and the amount of monthly benefit payments (the assumptions used is that GDP growth will average 4%, and unemployment falls to 5.5% - no recessions over the ten-year horizon). "
So, SSA estimates 4% GDP growth for 10 years straight and low employment??? I'm thinking that not only are the lack of "returns" going to impact the SSA's projections, so will the fact that they aren't going to be getting as much new revenue as they projected.
My estimate is 2015 to 2017 time frame.
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Eighty6thebs
Posts: 4180
Incept: 2007-06-26
It's contained to sub-prime!
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Must force boomers to keep working. Let's crash the markets again!
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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine
"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
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Genesis
Posts: 130661
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Steinbeck -- I have run a whole host of numbers -- PPACA, Medicare/Medicaid, Social Security, etc --- and everything comes up ~5 years from now we're ****ed, and if we don't act now, that ****ing will be ASSURED.
We do NOT have another election cycle to dick with this. We DO NOT have the luxury of Romney deciding that he'll deal with it "maybe" after the first year in office (if he wins.) We DO NOT have the luxury or another year of Obamanomics. And we CANNOT do what Johnson proposes without the REST of what has to be done, or we're dicked and done instantly.
Time has expired. We need serious people to have a serious conversation and we need it NOW.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Eighty6thebs
Posts: 4180
Incept: 2007-06-26
It's contained to sub-prime!
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My position is still Obama for 4 more. If Romney gets in, I expect no real change and then something along the lines of the recent French election in the next cycle. I believe we will change...after we crash and burn.
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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine
"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
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Mo
Posts: 12158
Incept: 2007-06-26
Pa.
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Quote:Time has expired. In the blue states, they don't know it. So much money is flowing into the chosen sectors (higher ed, health care, health insurance, banking, transportation....) it seems like there's no economic problem at all here. When you speak to people here about this stuff, they think you're from Mars. They haven't seen the scorched earth in the South, nor is it reported on the news. The surprise in the blue states is going to be huge.
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Welcome to Pottersville
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Genesis
Posts: 130661
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Go up north in Michigan, you will see a different story.
I was there (Mackinaw City/Island) last week. The week before July 4th, typically one of the busiest all year.
Not one hotel was full, a nice room ON THE BEACH, LITERALLY, was $100/night and there was NO WAIT for the ferries. There were NO crowds on the island. The Cherry Capital Mall (Traverse City) was a ****ing GHOST TOWN.
All ok in Blue State land eh?
Uh.... no.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Grumpy_bear
Posts: 606
Incept: 2008-02-26
More SRS please Mistress!
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Is this 25% cut a firm, fixed number? All I can find is that when the Trust Fund depletes, the subsequent payouts are limited to incoming Social Security tax revenues for that year. The 25% number seems to pop up from an SSA actuarial study of expected depletion in 2033 with revenues 25% below expected payouts at that point, and going up to 30% in the 2040s. Running a Japan-like GDP path of 2% growth, and even getting down to 5.5% unemployment but with Wal-Mart jobs rather than higher paying manufacturing full time jobs, the drop off of benefits at that point based only on current revenues could conceivably be MUCH larger than 25%.
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Denninger, Karl. Leverage: how cheap money will destroy the world. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2012. p. 126, par. 3.
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Bertdilbert
Posts: 2650
Incept: 2008-12-22
CA
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Karl, this is irrelevant.
The interest and principal on the trust fund can only be paid through the issuance of debt or the raising of taxes. You are behaving as though there is actually something there when there is not. Were the investments in the trust actually non governmental IOU's, and the trust actually owned them, you could make your case.
Being that we cannot balance our budget now by a long shot, and any fix to government spending (or tax raise) will lower GDP, the ability to actually make future payouts from the trust fund non marketable bonds is FICTITIOUS.
The only way this will be settled is for the Fed to put the non marketable bonds on the balance sheet and throw real bonds in the trust fund for sale. The treasury will then have to extinguish the debt on the fed balance sheet.
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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!
Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
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Eighty6thebs
Posts: 4180
Incept: 2007-06-26
It's contained to sub-prime!
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Of course 25% is not a firm fixed number. They will just print to cover the difference and **** everyone instead of a few. **** when the COLA was zero, they gave them extra cash anyway. You think a government of the people is ever going to cut benefits for the group that turns out at the polls the most?
Thinking they will cut benefits by 25% is comedy gold. At this point if TF can't see the solution is print/devalue it never will.
What was it Cheney said again?
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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine
"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
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Widgeon
Posts: 13481
Incept: 2007-08-30
Region formerly known as the United States
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I'm not worried. I think we'll grow out of it. LOL.
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Duc888
Posts: 7368
Incept: 2008-11-06
CT, the UNconstitution State
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Mo: Quote:In the blue states, they don't know it. So much money is flowing into the chosen sectors (higher ed, health care, health insurance, banking, transportation....) it seems like there's no economic problem at all here.
When you speak to people here about this stuff, they think you're from Mars. They haven't seen the scorched earth in the South, nor is it reported on the news.
The surprise in the blue states is going to be huge. You nailed it. I have several friends who work in the DC Met area and down into VA. All are working for government. 3 of the 5 I'm thinking about work in government projects that are such a colossal waste of money it's mind boggling. These three KNOW their jobs are bull****. All three make well over 100K a year. I am in amazement because all three spend every single penny that comes into their possession each week. It's like 2 worlds here. You work for Gov and it's party like it's 1999 and then there's everyone else (private industry) which except for a very few regions...is dying on the vine.
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...burp
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Steinbeck
Posts: 115
Incept: 2009-03-04
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Gen,
I agree, we don't have the luxury of time. My reference to 2015-2017 was to when the holy grail/untouchable icon of SS would start seeing cuts; not to when we have to start dealing with the problems.
We may have already crossed the event horizon or are standing upon it at the moment.
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Captbill
Posts: 842
Incept: 2008-07-22
Arizona's West Shore
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Am I wrong in that assuming this 2015 to 2023 time-frame means a financial collapse is way off now? What's happening across the pond seems to unravel by the hour now.
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Incredible. There's Smith and he's standing there and he's got the iceberg warning in his ****ing hand, excuse me, his hand, and he's ordering more speed. Lewis Bodine, RMS Titanic
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Genesis
Posts: 130661
Incept: 2007-06-26
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No.
Mathematical limits are never reached.
The market forces the issue first
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Dazedncornfused
Posts: 310
Incept: 2010-10-13
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>Go up north in Michigan, you will see a different story.<
Most of this is because BigHappyFireworksDayOff is Wednesday. We should just celebrate the day on the nearest Tuesday/Thursday/4DayWeekend and all would be OK. "up north in Michigan" Meesheegun is now a commuter party weekend destination and this Wednesday observance is just plain a business killer. We're turning into DoorCountyWisconsin. or japanese like the song, i dunno
The important observation is just how many $5million+ trophy homes can now be had on a school teachers' salary. Lots, and the lower resale value is crushing property tax assessments (Prop A and all that) and pension contributions.
Being a DevDir in Da Yoop, if you can send out thanx rite away you'll do OK. My obs is those complaining abt bad business are invariable bad bznsppl. and bad spllrs and grammerers and riters 2
Karl, up here you're not seeing so much a bad economy but just a Darwinian thinning of the lazy part of the herd. I was in 4 parades today handing out tons of literature. My employer will do OK but ya gotta do the hustle.
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Stand up and be counted or line up and be numbered.
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Eighty6thebs
Posts: 4180
Incept: 2007-06-26
It's contained to sub-prime!
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"The market forces the issue first"
I used to agree with this statement. That changed about 3 years ago when the FED announced that it would start buying T's. When that statement crossed the wire, I knew things had forever changed. I now believe we will print until our people revolt. The only places where the market matters are ones that don't control their own currency. How else do you explain the debt/GDP levels of Japan, the UK, and now the US?
The government will make good on all debts, destroy the currency/savers/banks/rich, and rebalance wealth through the distruction of the USD. For those that have substantial USD savings (including our host and me to a lesser degree) it sucks ass but that's what is coming. the purchasing power of the west is gone for our lifetime and several generations behind us. The American Century is dead.
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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine
"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
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Noodleman
Posts: 2383
Incept: 2008-11-01
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By the time they start dicking around with SS the ship will already be 75% submerged. Too late. Many Americans have been conditioned into thinking that SS is going bye-bye. THINKING it is going bye-bye is one thing. Not getting that promised check deposited into your account is quite another. A lot of people depend on that SS check to survive. That's when the ball of social string starts to unravel and civilized behavior becomes the exception, not the rule. My guess is that they'll try to take SS away from the 'wealthy' Americans first. Naturally 'wealthy' will be defined as 'anybody with more money than me'. We'll hit the brick wall well before 2023.
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"Ammunition beats persuasion when you are looking for freedom." Will Rogers, 4 Nov 1879 - 15 Aug 1935
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Marketpirate
Posts: 1636
Incept: 2007-11-30
New York
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Mo Quoted Quote:In the blue states, they don't know it. So much money is flowing into the chosen sectors (higher ed, health care, health insurance, banking, transportation....) it seems like there's no economic problem at all here.
When you speak to people here about this stuff, they think you're from Mars. They haven't seen the scorched earth in the South, nor is it reported on the news.
The surprise in the blue states is going to be huge . All is clear here in the People's Republic of New York City. Try talking to people here about the economic doom that's on the way, and they will either laugh or ignore you out of the room. If you're lucky they'll will just call you a racist who just wants to see Obama fail. Never mind that I'm black myself. 
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The bull**** stops when the money runs out, and not a moment before.
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Tritumi
Posts: 166
Incept: 2008-11-29
tokyo
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what odds on a pure wealth tax above and beyond income and real estate taxes? any and everything is meat to the fedgov predatory maw now.
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Marvinmartian
Posts: 744
Incept: 2011-03-16
Pasadena, CA
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Quote:what odds on a pure wealth tax above and beyond income and real estate taxes? That's the route the French/Hollande government is doing next year. http://www.ft.com/home/usWealthy hit hardest as France raises taxes Socialist government announces big one-off increase in wealth taxes An extra €2.3bn will be raised by an exceptional tax charge on all those with net wealth of more than €1.3m. |
Rocarocket
Posts: 74
Incept: 2010-10-01
Reno, Nv
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Gen,
I don't think you can segregate the ss trust fund from the gen fund.
It's circular reasoning to suggest that sstf goes broke for lack of interest earnings when those interest earnings come from the gen fund interest expense.
Sstf loss is the general funds gain.
If your intent is to suggest that the govt wants the boomers off their teet then just say so.
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