Europe: Squirrel!
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-06-29 09:39
by Karl Denninger
in International
Ignore this thread
Europe: Squirrel!
 

Ever see "Up" where the dog has the "talking" collar on and every second word is "squirrel!"

Well, that's pretty much what you have here in Europe today, and along with it, the market.

“We agreed on short-term measures that should apply to Spain and Italy,” said Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who heads the group of euro finance ministers. “We will keep all options open to do the interventions that need to be done to calm the situation. There is a whole array of possible interventions and measures.”

Yeah, right.

Let's see.... subordination will come with that.  I know, I know, they say it won't.  Yes it will as it must.  You can't take $20 from one pocket and put it in the other, then claim to have an additional $20.  But this is what the EFSF/ESM proposes; a huge part of their funding comes from Italy and Spain so the claim that there is no subordination is per-se false; it's indirect, but it's still there!

What will this do for the proper price of money in the market for these nations?

It will drive it to the moon, that's what.

What's worse is that the EFSF and ESM simply don't have enough capital to matter.  All they can do is buy at the margin, but in doing so they tamper with seniority, turning what is effectively "most-senior" debt into subordinated debt for those who already held the notes!

This is bad, not good.

And there's not enough firepower.

And subordination will ultimately drive funding costs up, not down.

And there was nothing -- at all -- about actually fixing the underlying problem, which is that they're still spending more than they take in over there.

Never mind here.

 

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives
Archive Access
Get Adobe Flash player





Blogtalk 3:30 CT Mondays
Items To Look At


Discuss The Capital Markets along with daily technical analysis with our Gold Donor program.

Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker

Links and Blogroll
Our policy on reciprocal links: Send us an email with your information and why you think your blog or news site would make a good addition - in most cases reciprocal link requests will be granted.
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Looking for "The Best of Market Ticker"? Check out
Ticker Classics.

Visit the forum to discuss this and other investing-related topics; see the FAQ on the forum for information about Gold Donor status including access to our technical analysis video server.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be reproduced or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media or for commercial use.

Submissions may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Leads on stories of current economic and political interest are always welcome. Our fax tip line is 850-897-9364; please include contact information with your transmission.

 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Showing Page 1 of 2  First12Last
User Info Europe: Squirrel! in forum [Market-Ticker]
Nevertoolate
Posts: 1220
Incept: 2007-08-26
Gold A True American Patriot!
San Antonio de Bexar de runover with illegals, Texas
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Yeah, who wants to loan someone more money (unless they are charging a "default" rate)once you have been screwed by subordination. This should put the nail in the coffin for sure.

----------
"Socialist never mind stealing, as long as they are the ones doing the stealing. They never mind lying, as long as they are doing the lying."-Mannfm11

Before you attempt to beat the odds, be sure that you can survive the odds beating you.
End_the_bubbles
Posts: 9521
Incept: 2009-03-25
Green
The New 3rd World
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
This stunt was a nice way to send a metric ****load of "in the money" puts to their grave absolutely worthless, as well as jack all the global markets for a nice end of the quarter mark-up.

How long does the make-believe last this time?

----------

In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.
Dazedncornfused
Posts: 313
Incept: 2010-10-13
Green
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
In the overnight stories (gawd I gotta get reglar hours) all made the same two points.

1) Merkel completely caved and reversed all previously held positions and is now agreeing to provide everything the Spanish and Italian hearts desire including money, capital, loans, liquidity and peace and love, lest the Latins have hurt feelings.

2) Any additional loans would not change any existing seniority. So saith Hermann von Rumpswab.

Is even any of this true? Are there any reporters, excepting those on Russian Television, who even care? What would Ann Curry have said?

----------
Stand up and be counted or line up and be numbered.
Genesis
Posts: 130768
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
No, and no. Nor does it matter since the ESM/EFSF, which is where this comes from, is funded BY THE PEOPLE WHO WANT THE HELP!

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Nevertoolate
Posts: 1220
Incept: 2007-08-26
Gold A True American Patriot!
San Antonio de Bexar de runover with illegals, Texas
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
A monetary circle jerk!

----------
"Socialist never mind stealing, as long as they are the ones doing the stealing. They never mind lying, as long as they are doing the lying."-Mannfm11

Before you attempt to beat the odds, be sure that you can survive the odds beating you.
Muscleknight
Posts: 3992
Incept: 2007-06-26
Gold
Columbia, SC
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Didn't Gensis say if they thought the situation was grave they would go all in? Maybe this is the all in moment?

----------
My Financial Avatars - http://s677.photobucket.com/albums/vv131....
A rumor isn't true unt
Wootendw
Posts: 38
Incept: 2010-01-28

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Merkel has caved and she will cave and cave again. In the end, it will all likely collapse, but not until non-elite short sellers have been wiped out. There is nothing any of us can do about except put our money in the safest investments - short term Treasuries and about 15% gold and spend it as slowly as possible.
Debtpie
Posts: 534
Incept: 2009-12-17

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
"“We will keep all options open to do the interventions that need to be done to calm the situation. There is a whole array of possible interventions and measures.”"

Ummm...isn't the fact that "interventions" are needed the problem?

Isn't the solution to end the need for "interventions"?

~~~~~~

Deficit spending your way to prosperity...a couple trillion Euro.

Thinking that infinite deficit spending will bring infinite prosperity...priceless.


~~~~~~

Back to the R's and Mittens with the ObamaCare repeal promise..someone help me out.

1. R's are against government run health insurance.

2. Medicare (Gov run health insurance) costs $500+ Billion per year.

3. ObamaCare will cost $180 Billion a year.

4. R's want to repeal ObamaCare; too expense is one point of many.

5. Why is there no talk of repealing Medicare or at least scaling back it's massive annual cost?

6. Where is Mittens and R's on this?


~~~~~~~~~

Mittens says "Most troubling of all...ObamaCare puts the Government between you and your doctor"...isn't that Medicare?

Anyone polled seniors lately..are they troubled by this? Where is the AARP...why are they not demanding that government (aka Medicare) get out the health insurance business and return our seniors to the free market where costs are lower and the choices many?

I'm really confused here...

----------
A Leader, or an Opportunist? "A leader has the capacity of vision, the ability to see where things are headed before people in general see those things." Mitt Romney --- DebtPie's definition: a leader decides where "things" should head and "leads" us there.

Drench
Posts: 28631
Incept: 2009-11-10
Green
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List

Jubber
Posts: 14134
Incept: 2007-07-05
Gold
UK
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
God what a dumb interviewer

----------

“The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher
Winstonsmith2009
Posts: 1060
Incept: 2009-08-05

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
"Ever see 'Up' where the dog has the 'talking' collar on and every second word is 'squirrel!'"

That's exactly the analogy I've used in other forums. Highly appropriate.

What a farce. It is absolutely amazing how long they've been able to keep this Ponzi going as those innocent of the massive frauds are quickly being robbed blind while the ongoing farce of representative government elections proceed.

Thanks mainly to this site, I can no longer watch mainstream financial media without thinking, "you clueless f'ing idiots" nor can I watch election coverage on The Daily Show without thinking "why are you even bothering to cover this?" However, when Jon Stewart points out the BS propaganda from Faux News and others, it does serve a useful purpose in pointing out how omitted facts and superficial coverage and analysis from our "free press" leads to propaganda even MORE powerful than the clumsy and obvious propaganda of totalitarian states like the former Soviet Union. I'll paraphrase what an Eastern European reporter once told a western journalist - "When we read the news, we know for certain it's a lie. Your problem is that you assume your news is the truth."

I've got to say that ignorance is bliss. When one is surrounded by propagandized citizens who are too lazy or simply incapable of applying the critical thought process and adequate skepticism to what they hear on "the news", it's like being in a 300 million man lifeboat where virtually everyone else is actively drilling holes in the hull. After a while, you just can't worry about it and sit back, eat the provisions, and think, "Maybe after we sink, you'll actually wake up. Unfortunately, you'll probably be too f'ing stupid to swim."
Jstanley01
Posts: 8182
Incept: 2008-07-30
Silver A True American Patriot!
San Antonio, Texas
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Debtpie wrote..
5. Why is there no talk of repealing Medicare or at least scaling back it's massive annual cost?

6. Where is Mittens and R's on this?
Watch Mittens' reaction to the SCOTUS ruling. It's quick as a wink, so listen close or you'll miss it.

http://tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-w....

----------
You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum
Blurtman
Posts: 563
Incept: 2009-01-24


Banned
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Mike Kreidler, the WA state insurance commissioner, when asked by the local Fox news(?) bubbleheads how the Affordable Health Care plan was going to be paid for, said it is already paid for, as Congress has voted to fund it.

Well OK, then, the money is coming from somewhere else.

Inline

----------
I have a reading comprehension problem and the owner banned me for repeatedly displaying it after being warned.
Henri
Posts: 191
Incept: 2007-09-23
Green
europe
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
In any case, the announcemnent did what they wished it did -- yields on Spain, Italy and (surprisingly) Ireland bonds went down 14% on average across the curve.

Curiously, Portugal yields barely moved. The 2-year actually went up a bit (7.96%)
Digitlman
Posts: 331
Incept: 2011-03-04

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Time to put on the "DOW 13,000" hats?

This is unreal. Up 233 at the moment.

And WTI is up almost $6....in a day! I have FB'd my friends that they shoudn;t get used to the drop in gas prices cuz it's going right back up again.

Free money hopium bull****!

OK, I feel a little better now.
Mannfm11
Posts: 3545
Incept: 2009-02-28
Gold
DFW, Tx
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
First of all, this bull**** story was made up about noon yesterday and was meant to be sold as a fix. Look at the SPX yesterday, a 16 point jam job going into the close the last 3 hours. Yahoo had a Motley fool link up that market recovers on Obama care. No, it recovered on the inside knowledge they were going to come up with a bull**** solution that would be sold after hours. The market laid there on the bottom after the supreme court decision was announced.

Anyone who can't understand this is nothing more than a couple of skid row bums exchanging notes (IOU's) on the street and peddling them as good cash, doesn't understand the problem. None of these countries, save Germany and a few of the smaller northern outfits could possibly go back to their own currency and not wipe the value of their savings in debt totally out. This might be good in the sense this is a debt crisis, but sans debt, paper money has no connection to anything. Pay taxes? That only relates to the point the government could get anything for the money in the first place? The link to what they had has been destroyed by going into the Euro.

All fiat money value rests on what was established over time in gold and debt. Once the debt was significant enough, the gold link could be dropped. The Great Depression provided such a backdrop. Quite possibly Greece could go back to their former currency, buy enough of their debt at a fixed rate, but they would have to cease to borrow more money or expand the money supply. The central bank could then, through the circle jerk that this game entails, force the government to pay them the interest on the debt. A tight money policy might then allow for some value to return to the money. But, this is austerity, which is what these outfits are fighting at the present. Otherwise, you have the notes of the 2 bums on the street circulating.

What they are doing in Europe is precisely how banking works. It might be legal, but it isn't lawful. At the current level, the fees for credit plus principal make the loan portfolio of the system insolvent. Only those in possession of the money can pay the debt and such that those that hold the accounts don't owe the debt, the system can't operate as described on the balance sheet. So, the answer isn't to call the kettle black, but to tread water, drawing income out of the portfolio while it rots. The portfolio of the banker and the sovereign are one and the same.

So, we have the bankrupt bailing out the insolvent. The world has been operating in bankruptcy since the 1930's. How do you reorganize a ponzi scheme? It appears you admire the emperors clothes instead of the obvious that he is buck naked. Those that can't pay are bailing out those that can't pay, in part because those that are doing the bailing out can't pay. In return, those that are bailed out are supposed to buy or roll the debt of those doing the bailing, that is those that can't pay. A bold faced absurdity like this can't go on for long. It appears Merkel is merely buying time to re-arrange the deck chairs.

----------
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith

Mannfm11
Posts: 3545
Incept: 2009-02-28
Gold
DFW, Tx
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Digit, this will blow up over the weekend. They don't have $5 trillion to keep this thing in the box, as it would wipe out the remaining credit on the Continent. This is a classic case of we had to destroy the village to save it.

----------
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Flappingeagle
Posts: 1227
Incept: 2011-04-14

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
This is another version of the same cock-and-bull story they have been telling for the last year. Europe has a ton of debt and a thimble full of money with which to try and pay it off.

They have to keep these stories, and anything else they can think of, going because any rise in interest rates nukes their Ponzi financing.

They are now essentially reduced to being one of those con-man liars we all run into occasionally who we have figured out from the beginning. The con-man keeps telling lies hoping to hit on the one lie that you will believe.

Europe is BROKE, the question is, when do they tell the lie that backfires on them and exposes to J6P, who is still trying to believe, just how bad things really are?

One day we will look on and Europe will collapse all at once like a house of cards. CAVEAT WARNING: Japan could go first, or maybe even the US.

Flap

----------
Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Digitlman
Posts: 331
Incept: 2011-03-04

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Mann: I hope you are right.
Jstanley01
Posts: 8182
Incept: 2008-07-30
Silver A True American Patriot!
San Antonio, Texas
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
KD has pointed it out for years that markets don't go straight down. Even after the Ponzis fail, reaching the bottom will play out over months and even years, during which there will be "rip your face off" ramps. For an e.g. look at the tech wreck on the 20-year NDX...
Inline

----------
You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum

Bluebird
Posts: 1381
Incept: 2008-05-02
Silver
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Flappingeagle said "when do they tell the lie that backfires on them and exposes to J6P"

July 4th?
Etika
Posts: 243
Incept: 2008-06-15
Green
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
On that side of the pond you probably weren't subjected to the blow-by-blow news from the meeting, so you missed the comedy of the sequence. Here's how it apparently went down:

Thursday night (local time) the meeting was going on with the contents of the 'growth packet' agreed, but Italy and Spain are preventing its acceptance until their demands are met. At this point Germany wants Von Rompuy to announce that the packet has been agreed upon, France opposes this and says that "only truth should be told out". Negotiations continue until early morning when agreement on the issues is reached. Friday's meeting is thus cancelled.

Then on Friday morning the meeting attendees arrive to announce the agreement. However, everyone tells of a different story: Von Rompuy says that the ESM seniority requirement has been removed for all loans while Finnish prime minister says it's removed only for those loans that are initially given out through EFSF and then transferred to ESM; Hollande says that ESM has been given permit to buy bonds directly from countries while Germans deny this. Utter confusion ensues; cancellation of Friday's meeting is cancelled.

On Friday's meeting everybody agrees that they have agreed, but can't agree on what they have agreed on. Time is running out since Merkel has to take the ESM agreement to Bundestag. Everybody agrees on a common publicity line on the major items with details to be worked out at lower levels. Meeting ends.

So, as a result, everybody agrees that there is agreement, but nobody really knows what's in the agreement. There is really no telling exactly what it turns out was agreed upon there.

Pooslinger
Posts: 4393
Incept: 2007-11-06
Gold
Illinois
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Mann: I think you're wrong on thinking this blows up this weekend. I think they'll get a bit further than that my friend. smiley

Just stand back if you're trying to short this!! Markets could easily run to new highs in JULY before it reverses. Why fight it I ask? Why??

Drench
Posts: 28631
Incept: 2009-11-10
Green
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List

Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Showing Page 1 of 2  First12Last