Richmond Fed Drops in [Market-Ticker]

Posted 2012-06-26 10:39
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors

Richmond Fed Drops

In June, the seasonally adjusted composite index of manufacturing activity—our broadest measure of manufacturing—lost seven points to -3 from May’s reading of 4. Among the index’s components, shipments declined two points to -2, new orders dropped thirteen points to end at -12, and the jobs index moved down eight points to 8.

Don't get too crazy-bearish on this -- yet.

Employees and wages both remained positive - so far. But workweek contracted, and new orders and backlog both collapsed. Shipments and capacity both are negative and prices received are not holding up.

This is a bad report and follows on the back of the disastrous Philly Fed index. One more month and the recession calls will start coming "fast and furious" -- I'll go ahead and issue one now -- we'll recognize it somewhere around December, +/- three months.

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User Info	Richmond Fed Drops in forum [Market-Ticker]
Salt Posts: 192 Incept: 2010-05-28 NC	Twenty bucks on the -3 side. I really don't think we'll have to wait for December. 2012-06-26 12:58:04 Permalink
Flappingeagle Posts: 1227 Incept: 2011-04-14	I think that we are in recession now. Of course, it might not be until April of the year 2525 that the government finally admits that we were in recession. At least the productive part of the economy is on recession if not depression. The part that is funded by the huge deficits is what is making things look 'better'. I use the term 'better' pretty freely there. Flap ---------- Here are my predictions for everyone to see: S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu. "You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner. 2012-06-26 15:28:27 Permalink
Deejunk Posts: 715 Incept: 2008-10-11 Now DC - Solar Power.	meh -- w/e wrong issue ---------- http://www.myvideo.de/watch/2451556/The_.... - I'm seriously ready for inflation, deflation & TOTAL collapse of the US & Global economic & market systems.. 2012-06-26 18:58:11 Permalink
Bruceallen123 Posts: 56 Incept: 2010-02-12	I personally don't expect to see any significant developments until after November's elections, but given the volatile global situation right now, political instability in the mid-east, etc, anything's possible. But I do agree with Karl that the SHTF as the year winds down... 2012-06-27 05:34:56 Permalink