Does Germany Have It Right?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-06-26 09:21
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
Ignore this thread
Does Germany Have It Right?
 

What's this?  More truth?

European proposals to reshape the crisis-struck euro area ran into immediate criticism fromGermany for putting too much emphasis on debt sharing and too little on controlling national budgets.

The 10-year road map, released today by four officials led by European Union President Herman Van Rompuy, centered on common banking supervision and deposit insurance and a“criteria-based and phased” move toward joint debt issuance. It also suggests that the EU could impose upper limits on annual budgets and debt levels of nations that use the euro.

You can reduce all this arm-waving to one sentence: Governments may not spend more than they tax.

That's all. It's that simple, and if you do that then all this nonsense about "debt levels" disappear as there is no government debt involved at all.

Of course this makes the programs of national governments a bit harder to deal with, as now you have to actually tax people to provide what they demand.  George W. Bush and Obama both have ignored this principle, as has most of Europe. 

The disease is similar to someone eating like a complete pig; packing on the pounds with a 2-lb T-bone every night and a whole cherry pie.  They claim "nothing bad is going to happen as it hasn't" as the weight goes on, even though we know that eventually this will shorten their life and lead to serious disease.  But that it has not today caused them to keel over with a heart attack means that it's all ok and shall be ok for the indefinite future.

Self-delusion, quite simply, is not limited to body mass or smoking.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives
Archive Access
Get Adobe Flash player





Blogtalk 3:30 CT Mondays
Items To Look At


Discuss The Capital Markets along with daily technical analysis with our Gold Donor program.

Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker

Links and Blogroll
Our policy on reciprocal links: Send us an email with your information and why you think your blog or news site would make a good addition - in most cases reciprocal link requests will be granted.
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Looking for "The Best of Market Ticker"? Check out
Ticker Classics.

Visit the forum to discuss this and other investing-related topics; see the FAQ on the forum for information about Gold Donor status including access to our technical analysis video server.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be reproduced or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media or for commercial use.

Submissions may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Leads on stories of current economic and political interest are always welcome. Our fax tip line is 850-897-9364; please include contact information with your transmission.

 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
User Info Does Germany Have It Right? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Rln2433
Posts: 67
Incept: 2009-02-03
Gold
Virginia
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The cabal wants to pass the bill on the Germans and they are smartly saying "uck-fay ou-yay." The only way forward is forcing accountability within the sovereign governments for spending and that point has been raised again and again by the minority of people with any common sense. (oxymoron I know)

Maybe time to start an EU Dead Pool?
Jonesapple10
Posts: 379
Incept: 2010-11-09
Green
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
All these long term plans here and there, what a joke. It's the same story every election, the 6-10 year plan...4 years later, not only was the plan not followed, but things got way worse. Of course this will be excused because, "the recovery has been slower than we anticipated" Its all ****. Nothing will change for the better until we make real sacrifices, and since no politician has the balls to do anything, its never gonna change.
Deejunk
Posts: 715
Incept: 2008-10-11

Now DC - Solar Power.
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Actually the US government CAN spend more than it taxes so long as other governments are FORCED by "contract" to buy Treasuries. This is my second notice Karl. So long as "force" exists, spend spend spend and those foolish enough to contract with the US shall burn, burn burn when the US selectively defaults. Too much confidence in the all mighty dollar currently.

----------
http://www.myvideo.de/watch/2451556/The_.... - I'm seriously ready for inflation, deflation & TOTAL collapse of the US & Global economic & market systems..
Genesis
Posts: 130796
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
There is no such force; you're simply incorrect.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Mannfm11
Posts: 3556
Incept: 2009-02-28
Gold
DFW, Tx
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
We know the circle jerk Karl. The debt can't be paid, so we need more debt so we can pay the debt which can't be paid. What can't be paid, won't be paid, but that doesn't stop the bankers and politicians from trying to buy time to peddle the crap on the public and get out with the loot. The real loot is a claim on economic rent on the land.

Instead of figuring out the haircut, they are trying to figure out how to scalp the people outside the contract. If this was as simple as Greece is too far in debt, Greece needs to balance their budget and the debt needs to be cut and losses put on those too stupid to not lend them the money, the problem would have been solved 3 years ago. Ditto Ireland, where bankers piled in with excessive credit and built way too many houses. The people of ireland shouldn't have to pay for the mistakes of foreign bankers any more than the people of Iceland. Ireland has 300,000 houses it doesn't need. Might as well be making cars without wheels and engines and dumping them in a field. Clearly these bankers knew they had henchmen who would force their mistakes onto others.

These idiots are playing Russian roulette with currencies. In that gold was the link to money and bank credit was made fiat as gold, then gold removed, so the currencies maintained their value through payment of debt. These currencies go up in flames, the majority of the world will have nothing to use as money. The dollar became the world standard of credit under Breton Woods, but Breton Woods fell apart when the US closed the gold window. What remained was a system of world debt, based on the dollar and the threat of exclusion in world trade if a country lost its solvency. Deejunk is kind of right, though I don't believe there is an implied contract. What there is out there is a collapse in the world economy of trade should the dollar collapse. Bernanke keeps spinning the chamber of the model 27 and pulling the trigger. But he is aiming at the rest of us.

This is a link to an article I posted here yesterday. Pater Tenebrarum at acting man made the article the subject of his post yesterday. Pater didn't totally agree with the article, but he supported my idea about currencies in the previous paragraph and at other times on this board, with a quote from Mises. I think the idea of flexible exchange rates has been a scourge on the world economy and clearly on the US. We have benefitted absolutely zero from devaluing our money.

http://mises.org/daily/6069/An-Austrian-....

quotes:

Let us now focus on two significant ways the euro is unique. We will contrast it both with the system of national currencies linked together by fixed exchange rates, and with the gold standard itself, beginning with the latter. We must note that abandoning the euro is much more difficult than going off the gold standard was in its day. In fact, the currencies linked with gold kept their local denomination (the franc, the pound, etc.), and thus it was relatively easy, throughout the 1930s, to unanchor them from gold, insofar as economic agents, as indicated in the monetary-regression theorem Mises formulated in 1912 (Mises 2009 [1912], pp. 111–123), continued without interruption to use the national currency, which was no longer exchangeable for gold, relying on the purchasing power of the currency right before the reform. Today this possibility does not exist for those countries that wish, or are obliged, to abandon the euro.

Inflation is essentially antidemocratic. Democratic control is budgetary control. The government has but one source of revenue — taxes. No taxation is legal without parliamentary consent. But if the government has other sources of income it can free itself from their control. (Mises 1969, pp. 251–253)

----------
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Highrev
Posts: 5025
Incept: 2009-02-21
Silver
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Merkel Says No European Shared Liability As Long As She Lives
Quote:
Why is Merkel doing all of this? Simply. We have said it n times before... We will say it again:
Quote:
Germany will continue pushing every peripheral country closer to the brink (which helps Germany courtesy of increasing pressure on the EURUSD, which benefits the only real net exporter and mercantilism beneficiary in the Eurozone - Germany - by now only absolute economic dilettantes don't seem to understand this) until such time as PIIGS (and then all the other formerly core - here's looking at you socialist "fairness doctrine" entrants) come begging for any scrap that whoever is in charge of Germany will be willing to hand them, in the form of a Debtor In Possession loan of course, and thus accretive to Bunds. If that means presenting their gold to the German Cash4Gold pawn shop under the guise of a Redemption Fund or whatever it is called, so be it. Unless of course, everyone keeps demanding that Germany bail them out. In which case Merkel will just unpack that brand spanking new shipment of DEMs and be done with it.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/merkel-say....
Let'em get out those brand spanking new DEMs! smiley

It'll be the best thing that ever happened to the rest of Europe. (Well, Spain anyway.)

----------
Enlightened self-interest http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlightened....
HighRev's Open House is my internet hangout. Drop by whenever you like. The door is always open. smiley

Nocents
Posts: 187
Incept: 2009-08-26

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I think this whole thing is closet communism, where the debts to pay for state largesse are run up by the regime to such a point as to suck up as much of the middle-class wealth and savings as possible until it comes to the point where these debts that can't be paid won't be paid.

It's all so much more modern and civilised than bloody revolution by the proletariat...

Yuri Bezmenov did have a point, perhaps?

Reason: clearer thoughts - maybe...
Bailout-funder
Posts: 1020
Incept: 2008-10-17

SF Bay Area, CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Talking to some folk in Germany recently about the sad state of affairs, I blurted out, "I think Germany needs to leave the Euro."
Then,
<crickets>
A heartbeat later I am offered a comment about the large number of Deutschmarks that are known to be "out there" (i.e. never exchanged for Euros).

German's are very financially literate. I think the average 18 year old German will shred the average 25 yo American when discussing macroeconomics, finance, and geopolitics.

The hard-working Germans are sick of the PIIGS. Sure, Greece is a nice place to go for holiday, but...stop sucking my teets already.

----------
"As we have now seen, one little lie, repeated often enough, becomes one gigantic mess."
"Someone clearly got the best government money can buy, but it certainly wasn’t us."
--Karl Denninger

Tesla
Posts: 15543
Incept: 2008-04-03
Green A True American Patriot!
State of Disbelief
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Germany won't benefit from a low EUR/USD simply because they will have few left who can afford to buy their products. Good luck with that thinking.

----------
"Even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and being kicked." -Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes

"Neither the wisest Constitution nor the wisest laws will secure the liberty and happiness of a people whose manners are universally corrupt." -Samuel Adams
Abn0rmal
Posts: 9261
Incept: 2009-01-10
Green A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Tesla wrote..
Germany won't benefit from a low EUR/USD simply because they will have few left who can afford to buy their products. Good luck with that thinking.
Their customers can't afford their products now. What they are doing now is like a store giving merchandise away for free because if they charge anything it will reduce their sales volume.
Highrev
Posts: 5025
Incept: 2009-02-21
Silver
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Nocents wrote..
I think this whole thing is closet communism, where the debts to pay for state largesse are run up by the regime to such a point as to suck up as much of the middle-class wealth and savings as possible until it comes to the point where these debts that can't be paid won't be paid.
What I can corroborate is that the Spanish Socialists who privately advocate unlimited deficit spending (while stealing what they can whenever they can), publicly say that public money belongs to no-one, and openly defend the Cuban political system seem indeed to long for Dr. Zhivago's "shared housing".

----------
Enlightened self-interest http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlightened....
HighRev's Open House is my internet hangout. Drop by whenever you like. The door is always open. smiley

Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ