As many here may know HP announced 27,000 layoffs. They will primarily be in Canada and the US. It is guesstimated about 23,000 will be US with their last day August 31. In line with this ticker it does not look like things are going to get any better any time soon.

Right on schedule. Now for two years or so with the economy floating around aimlessly a la Japan and then the President is going to have to deliver the bitter pill and the party in power will not be elected back for another generation. Congress won't do it, for political reasons and because they'll be still bickering as the ship starts sinking and the people see the water rising....

First little wave in and taking a few that should have been bankrupt back out to sea.....now comes the next wave.....the big European countries and the cracks will show in Asia. Oil and commodities showing the way.

On the horizon....the first tsunami.....of three that I can surmise......Asia really collapses and the US starts falling apart with massive numbers of foreclosures and colleges and universities closing their doors because people can't pay.

Karl,

Nothing new in the ticks section from the last three days. Eagerly waiting for your tit bits. Kind of hooked to that section.

Thanks

Gable, 27K is just the first wave. I'll surmise it'll be about 40-50k by year end. These guys are amateurs compared to IBM. They are just learning how to do it.

Here's what's coming for HP:

http://www.cringely.com/2012/04/not-your....

http://www.cringely.com/2012/04/somethin....

http://www.cringely.com/2012/04/magical-....

http://www.cringely.com/2012/04/were-all....

http://www.cringely.com/2012/04/by-2015-....

http://www.cringely.com/2012/06/14/an-it....

It's going to be turmoil for the IT business for years.

The Economic Effects of Today's Falling Gasoline Prices June 19, 2012
http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.co....

Quote:

Good morning, White House Staffer!

We appreciate your daily visits, as you continue your ongoing efforts to closely monitor the U.S. gasoline price situation. We have, after all, tailored our top-of-the-page "Good Morning, White House Staffer" feature specifically to assist you in your daily task.

But we're afraid that we'll soon be taking down our feature, as the average retail price of a gallon of unleaded gasoline in the United States has fallen below $3.55 per gallon. Given the potential for volatility in that average price, we'll keep it going until it firmly drops below $3.50 per gallon, as this will help ensure that we don't discontinue our feature too early, should there be any unexpected supply disruptions in the next several weeks that might boost it back over the $3.55 per gallon mark.

That's good news for you, in the short term sense, as we expect that U.S. employers will react positively to falling fuel and transportation prices, which if our previous observations hold, will mean that the pace of weekly layoffs in the United States will change for the better within 2-3 weeks of the national average gasoline price dropping below $3.50 per gallon, which we would measure by the number of seasonally-adjusted new unemployment insurance benefit claims filed each week...

http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.co....



Dear White House Staffer... September 27, 2011
http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.co....

Good news, everyone! QE-Twist (V. Umpteen) will probably jack the price of gasoline back up into the stratosphere! The Clown-in-Chief hasn't got a clue, of course - he's too pre-occupied learning about the European economic situation. I guess one of Jamie's minions decided it was time that Obammy took some baby steps in economics stuff:

Quote:

BRUNI: He looked really de-energized. I was watching him, you know, as he stepped to the podium. One of the whole advantages of being president, of being the incumbent, is you get those settings: The flags behind you, the podium. You get the international audience. He strode out there, and the cadence of his speech was very slowed down. There was a lot of hemming and hawing. He got the first question from the press and answered. That answer went on and on and he (Oblabma) provided this really strange tutorial on European economic dynamics, and I just... I don't think that's what he meant to do when he got to that microphone. He doesn't seem in command...

Front Page on USAToady
Unemployment claims slip by 2,000 in latest week
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/st....

Jeeeeeeeeeeebus!!! WTF did they do to the education system in the last 30 years??!!??!

Quote:

US starts falling apart with massive numbers of foreclosures and colleges and universities closing their doors because people can't pay.

I bet the colleges last longer than you and I would ever think. We'll see, eh?

Nuke, What's with all the optimism???

WreCkovery Summer IV is well under way!!!

I hereby nominate CHARLES FREAKIN' PONZI for the Nobel Prize in Economics. Mr. Ponzi was a visionary economist who has never been given the credit for his financial prowess becuase he was simply to far ahead of his time.

Look at the world now, it is one giant Ponzi scheme! Not only are we using his financial techniques, the whole Modus Operandi has been named after him. If modern day copy-cat hacks like Krugman can get a nobel prize surely Ponzi deserves the prize.

In fact, we should rename the award the Charles Ponzi Prize in Economics given in memory of Alfred Nobel by a bank that had nothing to do with Mr. Nobel.

When I look around the world I say to myself "you just can't make this **** up!"

Flap

Yeah, that's not a good number for this time of year if we're in a "recovery". Still lower than last year but higher than comparable years in the not so distant past.

It's possible claims could bounce along in this range for a couple of years without reaching "happy days are here again" levels like they did in the early/mid 80s after the '81 recession but given recent events, it's starting to feel more like 2008 to me.

I was fiddling with graphs one night and noticed that when I switched the Fed data from weekly to monthly average claims, there was a pretty clear trend between the little spike in claims in early spring and the medium spike in summer. They track each other pretty well until the middle of a recession and the year after a recession. At the end of this graph, there are two scenarios: Continued decline in a stagnant recovery(Blue dash) and oops.(Red dash)



Also, in the second half of 2008 claims never really bottomed for the year, instead they continued climbing as TSHTF. Last year, average claims for the second half were lower than 2008 so it's reasonable to expect them to continue their decline if we're recovering, no matter how slowly. If they meet or exceed 2008 levels, well...I've also mentioned in the past the "new normal" possibility, where the level of claims we've been seeing are as good as they will get.

Nuke_Engineer - thanks for the links to the "I Cringely" Blog.