Empire Index: Collapse! in [Market-Ticker]

Posted 2012-06-15 08:48
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors

Empire Index: Collapse!

The June Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity expanded slightly over the month. The general business conditions index fell fifteen points, but remained positive at 2.3. The new orders index declined six points to 2.2, and the shipments index fell a steep nineteen points to 4.8. Price indexes were markedly lower, with the prices paid index falling eighteen points to 19.6 and the prices received index dropping eleven points to 1.0. Employment indexes also retreated, though they still indicated a small increase in employment levels and a slightly longer average workweek. Indexes for the six-month outlook were generally lower than last month’s levels, suggesting that optimism was waning somewhat, with the future general business conditions index falling to 23.1, its fifth consecutive monthly decline.

Eek.

New orders are nearly flat as are shipments. Unfilled orders are negative and have been for a year, meaning that there is no pressure on manufacturing (no backlog) at all. Inventories are now into depletion and prices paid have collapsed, so there is no pressure on suppliers either.

Nor is there pricing power -- prices received is now basically flat, which means that manufacturers are facing both cost and supply price collapse. Employee growth, which was driven by rather-ridiculous (in my opinion) forward optimism, is coming in. And the workweek is flat.

On a forward basis optimism is fading fast as well.

No, really? smiley

Discussion below (registration required to post)

Main Navigation

Full-Text Search & Archives

Archive Access

Blogtalk 3:30 CT Mondays

Items To Look At

Discuss The Capital Markets along with daily technical analysis with our Gold Donor program.

Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker

Links and Blogroll

Our policy on reciprocal links: Send us an email with your information and why you think your blog or news site would make a good addition - in most cases reciprocal link requests will be granted.

Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Looking for "The Best of Market Ticker"? Check out Ticker Classics.

Visit the forum to discuss this and other investing-related topics; see the FAQ on the forum for information about Gold Donor status including access to our technical analysis video server.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be reproduced or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media or for commercial use.

Submissions may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Leads on stories of current economic and political interest are always welcome. Our fax tip line is 850-897-9364; please include contact information with your transmission.

User Info	Empire Index: Collapse! in forum [Market-Ticker]
Bagbalm Posts: 4263 Incept: 2009-03-19 Just North of Detroit	Some of them must have believed government lies. 2012-06-15 08:58:23 Permalink
Seriousslacker Posts: 1482 Incept: 2008-09-30 Spinning Clockwise or Counter Clockwise?	That should be cause for another rally - we need our QE! Last modified: 2012-06-15 09:12:58 by seriousslacker Reason: Fixed smiley 2012-06-15 09:10:01 From PDA Permalink
Theox Posts: 581 Incept: 2009-01-30 People's Republic of Maryland	Recovery Summer 3- The Re-election! Coming soon to a republic near you... 2012-06-15 09:10:49 Permalink
Bertdilbert Posts: 2666 Incept: 2008-12-22 CA	They used to say when the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. With Japan, Europe and China catching a cold (or worse), I figure we are going to catch a cold too. This will of course require more banker bailouts. ---------- Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money! Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro. 2012-06-15 09:33:58 Permalink
J0nx Posts: 3068 Incept: 2008-08-12 The trashcan of the nation	I'll bet guns and ammo manufacturers have some serious backlogs on unfilled orders. The people know the score even if they don't want to admit it. ---------- The fraud and lies are only allowed to continue because the people allow it. Either through apathy or ignorance, they still allow it. 2012-06-15 09:46:42 Permalink
Jduwaldt Posts: 499 Incept: 2010-06-10 Orange County, CA	J0nx for the win... which all of us, unfortunately, could have done without... ---------- It's not an issue of "cooperation" vs "go it alone": it's a question of involuntary vs voluntary relationships. 2012-06-15 09:52:44 Permalink
Mannfm11 Posts: 3556 Incept: 2009-02-28 DFW, Tx	Bert, the US has pneumonia, which is why the rest of the world is collapsing. ---------- The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith 2012-06-15 13:57:00 Permalink
Sushihorn Posts: 7802 Incept: 2007-10-22 Arlington, TX	Set it next to Ebola and full-blown AIDS and the Herp starts looking pretty good doesn't it? ---------- http://jengafinance.blogspot.com/ Build a banker a fire and keep him warm for a night. Set a banker on fire and keep him warm for the rest of his life. 2012-06-15 14:05:56 Permalink
Lenguado Posts: 1272 Incept: 2010-01-12 Orlando, FL	Theox, Quote: Recovery Bummer 3 - The Re-election! There, FIFY ---------- I just realized... they aren't saying, "Keynesian Economics" they're saying "Kenyansian Economics". Grass Huts for everyone! Welcome to historys first Double Dip Depression 2012-06-15 14:16:17 Permalink
Mac Posts: 159 Incept: 2009-09-04	Yes, it's coming down hard and fast soon. One wonders how many people have already stopped taking Downgrade's telephone calls. I have a feeling that number is going to increase exponentially in the next couple of months. 2012-06-15 18:19:24 Permalink
Ponzi_unit Posts: 8116 Incept: 2007-09-05	Now would be the ideal time to institute some sort of flat tax in America. Talk about true economic stimulus just when we need it most. ---------- Taxpayers witnessed a crime and stayed around long enough to get charged with it. 2012-06-15 18:53:53 Permalink
Xqqme Posts: 627 Incept: 2009-01-09 Ohio	No wonder Obama 'changed' the subject of the day to an immigration debate. How they must laugh at how easily manipulated the public can be. 'Whacha gonna do about it, you bunch of racists?', they respond. ROTFLMAO 2012-06-15 23:08:58 Permalink

Quote: