Empire Index: Collapse!
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-06-15 08:48
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors
Ignore this thread
Empire Index: Collapse!
 

Oh my, this is not good...

The June Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity expanded slightly over the month. The general business conditions index fell fifteen points, but remained positive at 2.3. The new orders index declined six points to 2.2, and the shipments index fell a steep nineteen points to 4.8. Price indexes were markedly lower, with the prices paid index falling eighteen points to 19.6 and the prices received index dropping eleven points to 1.0. Employment indexes also retreated, though they still indicated a small increase in employment levels and a slightly longer average workweek. Indexes for the six-month outlook were generally lower than last month’s levels, suggesting that optimism was waning somewhat, with the future general business conditions index falling to 23.1, its fifth consecutive monthly decline.

Eek.

New orders are nearly flat as are shipments. Unfilled orders are negative and have been for a year, meaning that there is no pressure on manufacturing (no backlog) at all.  Inventories are now into depletion and prices paid have collapsed, so there is no pressure on suppliers either.

Nor is there pricing power -- prices received is now basically flat, which means that manufacturers are facing both cost and supply price collapse.  Employee growth, which was driven by rather-ridiculous (in my opinion) forward optimism, is coming in.  And the workweek is flat. 

On a forward basis optimism is fading fast as well.

No, really? smiley

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Comments.......
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Bagbalm
Posts: 4263
Incept: 2009-03-19
Green
Just North of Detroit
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Some of them must have believed government lies.
Seriousslacker
Posts: 1482
Incept: 2008-09-30
Gold
Spinning Clockwise or Counter Clockwise?
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That should be cause for another rally - we need our QE! smiley

Reason: Fixed smiley
Theox
Posts: 581
Incept: 2009-01-30
Silver
People's Republic of Maryland
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Recovery Summer 3- The Re-election!
Coming soon to a republic near you...
Bertdilbert
Posts: 2666
Incept: 2008-12-22
Gold
CA
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They used to say when the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold.

With Japan, Europe and China catching a cold (or worse), I figure we are going to catch a cold too. This will of course require more banker bailouts.


----------
Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
J0nx
Posts: 3068
Incept: 2008-08-12
Green
The trashcan of the nation
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I'll bet guns and ammo manufacturers have some serious backlogs on unfilled orders. The people know the score even if they don't want to admit it.

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The fraud and lies are only allowed to continue because the people allow it. Either through apathy or ignorance, they still allow it.
Jduwaldt
Posts: 499
Incept: 2010-06-10

Orange County, CA
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J0nx for the win... which all of us, unfortunately, could have done without...

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It's not an issue of "cooperation" vs "go it alone": it's a question of involuntary vs voluntary relationships.
Mannfm11
Posts: 3556
Incept: 2009-02-28
Gold
DFW, Tx
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Bert, the US has pneumonia, which is why the rest of the world is collapsing.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Sushihorn
Posts: 7802
Incept: 2007-10-22
A True American Patriot!
Arlington, TX
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Set it next to Ebola and full-blown AIDS and the Herp starts looking pretty good doesn't it?

----------
http://jengafinance.blogspot.com/

Build a banker a fire and keep him warm for a night.
Set a banker on fire and keep him warm for the rest of his life.
Lenguado
Posts: 1272
Incept: 2010-01-12
Gold A True American Patriot!
Orlando, FL
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Theox,
Quote:
Recovery Bummer 3 - The Re-election!

There, FIFY smiley

----------
I just realized... they aren't saying, "Keynesian Economics"
they're saying "Kenyansian Economics". Grass Huts for everyone!
smiley
Welcome to history’s first Double Dip Depression
Mac
Posts: 159
Incept: 2009-09-04

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Yes, it's coming down hard and fast soon. One wonders how many people have already stopped taking Downgrade's telephone calls. I have a feeling that number is going to increase exponentially in the next couple of months.
Ponzi_unit
Posts: 8116
Incept: 2007-09-05
Gold
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Now would be the ideal time to institute some sort of flat tax in America. Talk about true economic stimulus just when we need it most.

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Taxpayers witnessed a crime and stayed around long enough to get charged with it.
Xqqme
Posts: 627
Incept: 2009-01-09
Green
Ohio
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No wonder Obama 'changed' the subject of the day to an immigration debate. How they must laugh at how easily manipulated the public can be. 'Whacha gonna do about it, you bunch of racists?', they respond. ROTFLMAO
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