Claims: Oooh, That Smell
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-06-14 08:59
by Karl Denninger
in Employment
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Claims: Oooh, That Smell
 

Well that's a kick in the balls.

In the week ending June 9, the advance figure for  seasonally adjusted initial claims was 386,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 380,000. The 4-week moving average  was 382,000, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average of  378,500.

The market's instant reaction was to trade down, then we bounced pretty smartly.  I'm willing to bet that's on the "prospect" for The Fed to come in with more easing sleazing next week.

I wouldn't be so sure.  Oh yeah, oil at $83 gives them some room, I suspect, but the problem is that more QE won't do anything anyway with the 10 year Treasury trading 1.6%, and with the debt ceiling coming up soon unless that's increased Treasury can't use it to do more deficit spending either.

But Pavlov's dog will salivate anyway, and did.  The amusing part is going to be watching whether the dog bites the arm off the nice man when no steak appears as expected next week.

The big table continues to show large drops in extended benefits -- this time around 135,000 people who must be presumed to have rolled off (rather than found jobs.)

Bullish, right?

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User Info Claims: Oooh, That Smell in forum [Market-Ticker]
Ckaminski
Posts: 1586
Incept: 2011-04-08
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When they start reporting the NotInLaborForce as much as they do the UE numbers, I'll start being bullish again, because it means that NILF number is going down.

Until then... smiley
Gable
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In all of history, no government became more honest, less corrupt, or granted its citizens more rights as it grew in size. E.L. 2011

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Zacmilo
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australia
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From: AAP
June 15, 20128:28AM

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THE Australian market looks set to open higher following Wall Street's positive performance amid speculation of more stimulus from the Federal Reserve after another batch of poor data releases.

At 7.02am AEST today, the June share price index futures contract was up 24 points at 4068.
Surely it is impossible to QE to infinity,I can't wrap my mind around the idea that more of what has failed sofar will work the next time it is done.

Colk55
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Indiana
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NSA claims for this release are higher than they were for the comparable week last year and they'll probably be revised higher next week. Higher than 2008 as well and easily higher than 2004.

I wouldn't be shocked to see them in the 350-375K range over the next few weeks before the July spike arrives(Seasonal layoffs). If they're higher than that before July gets here, well...That's not good. Also, from the numbers I've looked at, August and September are the yearly bottom for claims. Even last year, NSA claims dipped below 350K fairly regularly in those months. Anything over last year's numbers in those months can't be good.

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The politician's motto: If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bull****.

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