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Comments on Flash: Moody's Cuts Spain 3 Notches
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User Info Flash: Moody's Cuts Spain 3 Notches in forum [Market-Ticker]
Rvacha
Posts: 8295
Incept: 2008-10-03
Gold
Cleveland
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Quote:
Yet, someone's been putting a bid under that market place. Yeah, I'll bet that's retail doing the buying.

If you are referring to Treasuries, the answer is YES! According to something I recently read last month retail bought more than the FED plus international combined

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"I suggest you panic." - Hugh Hendry

Winstonsmith2009
Posts: 1060
Incept: 2009-08-05

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Ouch! Had to look that up:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_rati....

Three steps down. Still far above the likely reality of their situation, but they don't like anything even approaching reality:

European Banks Preparing To Boycott Big Three Rating Agencies

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/european-b....
Jubber
Posts: 13936
Incept: 2007-07-05
Gold
UK
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how the **** is the Euro still going up?

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“The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher
Highrev
Posts: 5024
Incept: 2009-02-21
Silver
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Peterm99,

You obviously don't get it.

When you've got positive net worth, you're not a credit risk (to simplify my point).

Quick Cliff Notes data dump for you: the Spanish credit "problem" is not public debt (one of the lowest as a percent of GDP in Europe), it's private (at around 160% or so of GDP).

What was I saying in my last post about putting foot in mouth?

Come on ya'll, leave the nonsense to ZeroHedge.


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Enlightened self-interest http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlightened....
HighRev's Open House is my internet hangout. Drop by whenever you like. The door is always open. smiley

Reason: 160% - not 1.6%
Trades50
Posts: 4214
Incept: 2007-10-30
Gold
Land of Tax and Spend
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Quote:
how the **** is the Euro still going up?


I smell central bank intervention.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Eli
Posts: 7168
Incept: 2007-09-10
Silver
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Sure Trades, then the question is then what?

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If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
George Orwell

Rvacha
Posts: 8295
Incept: 2008-10-03
Gold
Cleveland
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Quote:
I smell central bank intervention.

...or repatriation

Quote:
Quick Cliff Notes data dump for you: the Spanish credit "problem" is not public debt (one of the lowest as a percent of GDP in Europe), it's private (at around 160% or so of GDP).

Public debt is REALLY high if you add all of the insolvent cajas' debt, which Spain loves to absorb. And the regionals? I think you forgot about those.

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"I suggest you panic." - Hugh Hendry

Phev
Posts: 440
Incept: 2009-05-17

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highrev, in Greece also homeowners (free of mortgage) are a good bunch of the population...

What is a value of an asset as real estate when you have three million vacant lot in spain and 25% unemployment... ?


"Spain is not Greece people. Do a balance sheet analysis of the country both private and public sectors."

and what about the balance sheet local level included ?


"Their net worth, that's right, accumulated riches, is envious. 80% of Spaniards own their own home, and 60% of those homeowners have no outstanding mortgage! That's one hell of a lot of collateral!"

What is the market value of their housing ?

"Spain is to Europe? Again, do a balance sheet analysis of the country before inserting foot in mouth."

For us here in france Spain was the foolest between us blowing the biggest real bubble... ever seen... People taking 50 years loan like candies with variable rate linked to euribor...

Arpwatch
Posts: 3051
Incept: 2009-11-06
Green
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When I was in Madrid I saw en alquiler and para venta everywhere. Me not knowing a bit of Spanish I was kind of surprised when I figured out what it was. I knew unemployment was high, but wow at the available living space.
Phev
Posts: 440
Incept: 2009-05-17

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Trichet and Greenspan have both screwed us for the next twenty years.
I cannot see how we will manage this crisis, it will be long and painful.

Thanks to the FED and the ECB.

If they decided to lower the rate after 9/11... and as an answer to 9/11

I am sorry to say it but Al Quaďda has won...

What was left of america (the idea of liberty) has been totally destroyed...
The hope of a thriving Europa... has also been destroyed.
What is left is debt and unemployment.

Ribbit
Posts: 1779
Incept: 2007-09-10
Green
Wales, UK
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Switzerland is not in the EU, yet Switzerland is extremely vulnerable to a weak euro.

All those mortgages in Eastern Europe denominated in Swiss francs, have put Switzerland between a rock and a very hard place.

Remember the panic buying of euros after Switzerland de-linked from the euro, when all that Club Med money started pouring into Switzerland?

Well they re-linked.

That begs the question, how many non-eurozone EU members, are being forced to buy huge quantities of euros by the EU, to maintain their link?

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If the State was a Nanny, it would have been fired for incompetence, unreliability, and having its hands in the till, a very long time ago now.
Noodleman
Posts: 2386
Incept: 2008-11-01

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This is like Barney the town drunk getting*****ed at the doctor for telling him he has stage IV cirrhosis of the liver. Following the consultation he walks into the bar next door and runs up his tab by ordering 6 more shooters while the bartender tells him the latest doctor jokes.

I feel like I'm living in a Franz Kafka novel.

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"Ammunition beats persuasion when you are looking for freedom." Will Rogers, 4 Nov 1879 - 15 Aug 1935

Jmanng
Posts: 537
Incept: 2009-01-03

Boston, Massachusetts, USA
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We have reached an inflection point. The ECB has no choice but to act now. If they start buying up Spanish debt and announce an explicit interest rate target ( for example 4%), Spain will be fine. If they don't, its over for the eurozone.

Rvacha
Posts: 8295
Incept: 2008-10-03
Gold
Cleveland
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4%? I want that action! (said the rest of the EU)

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"I suggest you panic." - Hugh Hendry
Bertdilbert
Posts: 2650
Incept: 2008-12-22
Gold
CA
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Quote:
(Spain is not Greece people. Do a balance sheet analysis of the country both private and public sectors. Their net worth, that's right, accumulated riches, is envious. 80% of Spaniards own their own home, and 60% of those homeowners have no outstanding mortgage! That's one hell of a lot of collateral!


Well dammit, let's mortgage those houses out and let the damn Spaniards bail themselves out and quit crying poor!

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Jal
Posts: 512
Incept: 2009-03-25

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Karl, sorry to be off topic but I wanted you to see W.K. Black's comments On J Damon.


http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2012/....
JPMorgan’s Senior Officers’ Addiction to Gambling on Derivatives
By William K. Black
A bank that makes enormous, extremely risky gambles is a bank that desperately needs to have its senior management team removed – immediately – and that is true regardless of how those bets turn out in any particular year.  There is no conceivable social purpose to providing the explicit federal subsidy of deposit insurance and the (much larger) implicit federal subsidy of “too big to fail” that all SDIs enjoy to a bank so that it can take massive gambles on financial derivatives.  The Jamie Dimons of the world know that if they win the gambles they will be made immensely wealthy and that when they lose the gambles massively the federal government will bail them out. 
---

William Black is on a speaking tour
I don’t know how to make this with the video.
Start at 6:00
http://www.canada.com/onlinetv/news/lang....

---
http://blogs.reuters.com/david-cay-johns....
As Black puts it, JPMorgan is now defining as a hedge “something that performs in exactly the opposite fashion of a hedge.” A hedge is supposed to reduce risk, but according to Black, the losses came from deals that “dramatically increased risk by placing a second bet in the same direction, which compounded the risk.”
----
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-tic....

More importantly, Black notes JPMorgan is betting on "derivatives of derivatives" and is by far the largest player in the market for the CDX Investment Grade 9 and CDX High Yield 11, the derivatives underlying the trade that earned Bruno Michel Iksil the nickname 'the London Whale.'
"They didn't just gamble, this was a wild, crazy insane gamble," says Black, who calls JPMorgan "the world's largest gambling operation in financial derivatives" in his latest blog at New Economic Perspectives.

Loudoungroup
Posts: 3739
Incept: 2008-02-01
Green
San Antonio, TX
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It's nearly over...I am more afraid of the system that replaces it...

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http://caps.fool.com/player/loudoungroup.... - Amazing once in the top 30, now shooting for -7000 via the Ben Bernank POMO operation.
Genesis
Posts: 130663
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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Jal: Yep, I saw his tweets earlier today smiley

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Landshark
Posts: 11236
Incept: 2008-02-07
Silver
The Wild West
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You should be, Loudoungroup.

My biggest wish is that we could just take the "big crap", and be done with it, like Iceland. We'd be a little bit poor for awhile but learn to live within our means.

My fear is that the "reset" many people here are wishing for will be our worst nightmare, and will bring on things even Orwell, as smart as he was, never foresaw.


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Success in life is a matter not so much of talent and opportunity as of concentration and perseverance.

– C. W. Wendte
Mikek31
Posts: 4346
Incept: 2009-05-04
Green
Chicago
Online
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CAN WE PLEASE GET THIS ****ING **** OVER WITH ALREADY!!!

I'M SICK AND TIRED OF THE STUPIDITY. It's been three f'n years already! C'mon!!

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Everyone keeps looking at the system and saying "it's not working, it needs to be redesigned somehow." It's working exactly the way the people who own it intend it to work.-Sutluc
Landshark
Posts: 11236
Incept: 2008-02-07
Silver
The Wild West
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Quote:
It's been three f'n years already!


Which is exactly why it's going to be worse.

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Success in life is a matter not so much of talent and opportunity as of concentration and perseverance.

– C. W. Wendte
Mikek31
Posts: 4346
Incept: 2009-05-04
Green
Chicago
Online
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Damn straight, Land. It's gonna be a ****show for sure, but I'm ready. I've taken my druthers, as many of us on TF have - otherwise we wouldn't be here. I've lost relationships and family over this ****; it's about time the other folks recognize that we're not all just some crazy sons-of-bitches...

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Everyone keeps looking at the system and saying "it's not working, it needs to be redesigned somehow." It's working exactly the way the people who own it intend it to work.-Sutluc
Jubber
Posts: 13936
Incept: 2007-07-05
Gold
UK
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Spanish futues back 6630 **** stopped out, ****s

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“The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher
Highrev
Posts: 5024
Incept: 2009-02-21
Silver
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If TARP worked/is working in the States, why not the same in Spain?

Home ownership is but ONE and ONLY ONE example of the underlying strong Spanish balance sheet. Don't belittle that as though it's presented in isolation (even if you could vis-a-vis England, for example). Try to be fair and objective with your analysis - to yourselves before anything else.

I've mentioned many other areas of Spanish solvency, from what the government *could do* tax wise to immediately solve the short term short falls, to the Bankia recap issue, to fire sale entry level prices for those currently buying assets on the market (which is in large part one of the problems for the seller . . . as anyone who's ever been in a pinch knows and the answer as to why they'd like to tap European funds - after all, as I clearly laid out in a recent post about negotiation, what good is Europe if all you do is pay out and don't even get a helping hand in a pinch?). It's not my job to convince you of anything. I share my views and knowledge *once*. After that you either continue as before, or you adjust to new information (that is if it is new for you of course). And if you missed something I said, it's called "Search". You either search to see if your question has already been answered, or you _________?

BTW: I'm going to post a special presentation later on in User Presentations for everyone "lamenting the end" and asking the "what can be done" question.

Get ready to take your blinders off.

___________________________________________________________

Add:

Since I’m a nice guy, and since I like you all, I’m going to try things from another angle by dumbing this down.

What would you be saying about Spain if there had been no real estate bubble? Does it get any clearer with that?

Well, when you look at the base population homeowner statistics, it looks like there was no bubble, doesn’t it? DON’T PROJECT!!! The Spanish real estate bubble was nothing like the U.S. real estate bubble. It wasn’t broad based! There was no Home ATM mentality! The liabilities, or toxic assets if you like, were in, and stayed in, the hands of a relatively few speculators (percentage wise). Do you dare take off the blinders and look more closely at how many of those speculators aren’t even Spanish?

Is than understandable?

Don’t bring out the unemployment rate on me now. What’s the REAL unemployment rate in the States? Compare apples with apples. The unemployment rate reported in Spain is the real unemployment rate. Benefits keep getting extended and people don’t roll off. And then if I asked another “if there were” question like if there were no illegal migrants on the dole? How many illegal migrants were allowed invited to enter Spain during the past 7 years of Socialist idiocy? If they weren’t here? If they were deported? (Don’t worry, they’re not going to be deported. They’re what is going to constitute a huge, cheap labor pool that’s not only going to be one of the pillars of Spain’s competitive advantage, but also what’s going to ultimately kill the unions. Once again, the Socialist hand backfires.)

On top of that, on top of reality (that I hope has been made a little clearer anyway with that mental exercise), I’ve said it before, but I’m not sure if I’ve said it here: the current government is implementing Reaganomics. Yep, you heard me right. Study what they’re doing, then google Reaganomics, and then try to tell me they’re not.

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Enlightened self-interest http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlightened....
HighRev's Open House is my internet hangout. Drop by whenever you like. The door is always open. smiley

Stonedog
Posts: 2080
Incept: 2008-05-29
Green A True American Patriot!
New Jersey
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Is this the moment?
Inline

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"I would characterize my professional disdain as more of a professional contempt for their [Central Banker, Banker and politician] economic and financial policies, priorities, presumptions and prescriptions." - Lauren Lyster on Capital Account for Friday June 16, 2012

"All the stimulus, the bailouts, the quantit
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