Want A Collapse Trigger? Here It Is
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-06-11 12:31
by Karl Denninger
in International
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Want A Collapse Trigger? Here It Is
 

Remember, this is if just Greece exits the Euro...

(Reuters) - European financeofficials have discussed limiting the size of withdrawals from ATM machines, imposing border checks and introducing euro zone capital controls as a worst-case scenario should Athens decide to leave the euro.

EU officials have told Reuters the ideas are part of a range of contingency plans. They emphasized that the discussions were merely about being prepared for any eventuality rather than planning for something they expect to happen - no one Reuters has spoken to expects Greece to leave the single currency area.

Riiiight.

Elections are coming at the end of the week.  And if Syriza wins, the party's leader has said they will tear up the "deal" and walk off.

The middle finger will be end of the game, if it occurs. 

The problem with "deposit guarantees" is what happens if you provide them and then one of the nations exits and devalues.  The effect of such a guarantee would be to provide an instant windfall to anyone who has a deposit in a bank inside the area where the exit occurs.

That's the problem with such a cross-border guarantee system and why it won't happen.

But without it, the bank runs can't be avoided if the people get the idea that they're going to get an enforced "holiday", which in turn creates the self-perpetuating cycle.

We're still not facing the truth here -- those who lent money with no reasonable capacity for the debtor to pay must take their loss.  Those who borrowed and can't pay must go bankrupt.  And governments must stop spending more than they tax.

Finally, the price of borrowing money must rise -- dramatically -- so that it reasonable reflects the risk of non-payment, while at the same time credit must not be extended beyond collateral -- that is, the game of "infinite credit expansion" beyond the rate of GDP advance in the economy must be halted and allowed to reverse.

None of this is particularly likely.  But the game that has been played for the last four years is now resulting in half-lives measured in hours rather than months, weeks or days -- and as such what we're headed for is a credit collapse -- like it or not.

Creditanstalt my friends.....

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User Info Want A Collapse Trigger? Here It Is in forum [Market-Ticker]
Vitchilo
Posts: 4978
Incept: 2011-04-27

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Quote:
no one Reuters has spoken to expects Greece to leave the single currency area.

Bulllllllllllllshiat.

And just publishing this kind of news will start a run on the banks... And if you think capital controls and all that stuff will only be for Europe, YOU ARE KIDDING YOURSELF... they gonna impose the same things here pretty soon too... North America and Asia...

Hopefully Syriza is elected and tell the EU to stuff it so all this BS can FINALLY end next week after 2 years of non ending BS drama and manipulations.

Quote:
those who lent money with no reasonable capacity for the debtor to pay must take their loss.

So anyone who lent money to the US government when bondzilla appears... you lose... sorry.

In other ``important`` news...
Quote:
BOE'S POSEN SAYS TIME FOR CENTRAL BANKS, INCLUDING BOE, TO BUY PRIVATE ASSETS

Prepare to print... ready? Go!!!!

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We hang the petty thieves and promote the great ones to office.

Joshua_d
Posts: 163
Incept: 2010-08-26

Lenoir, NC
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I say this is "Bullish for End Times!"
Ghopper
Posts: 2317
Incept: 2011-06-11

Staten Island, NY
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Do they realize that making this threat could start Euro bank runs NOW?
Jubber
Posts: 14632
Incept: 2007-07-05
Gold
UK
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I smell a shed load of QE coming very shortly

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“The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher
Curbyourrisk
Posts: 3605
Incept: 2008-08-19

Farmingdale, NY
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BRING IT.

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Time is up.

I hate to burst your bubble, but there is no Santa Claus, the tooth fairy does not exist and American justice does not involve the courts.
Frat
Posts: 1939
Incept: 2009-07-15
Silver
NKY
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smiley

SWEET. This is the cluster**** I've been waiting for - I hope it does NOT disappoint me!

And I'm such a dumbass - I just KNEW I should've hit the National Gun Day show in Louisville over the weekend. My own fault, and sadly - if **** blows sooner than the next show, this would've been my last chance to buy at today's over-inflated prices. Post-Euro- plosion I'll probably be wishing for them to be that 'low' again.

Game on. Zara, give that monkey a hard spanking and tell him to break out the rally cap!

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We're ****ed. Where's Henry Bowman when you need him?
Jstanley01
Posts: 8268
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San Antonio, Texas
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The Greek election is SUNDAY, roflmao. Then what are the odds Syriza flips if he wins? Meanwhile...
Quote:
ATHENS, Greece The Greek extreme-right party spokesman who caused an uproar last week by slapping one female politician on live TV and throwing a glass of water on another has sued the two women as well as the television channel that hosted the news show...

inline

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/06....
The Greeks, ya gotta love 'em...smiley

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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum
Winstonsmith2009
Posts: 1061
Incept: 2009-08-05

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Throxxofvron
Posts: 10448
Incept: 2009-02-17
Green
Hyper-Speculative Psycho-Facsistic Parabolic Blow-Off
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Reuters, You Rogue!

What a bit of dirty mischief!
-Printing such a thing while We were all just sitting down to enjoy our evening pudding was most rude of You.

Come now, own up to it: WHO put You up to saying such a thing and upsetting the Natives?

smiley

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DIONYSUS: " Thou hast no knowledge of the life thou art leading; thy very existence is now a mystery to thee. " -from 'The Bacchantes' By Euripides “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” -George Orwell
Flappingeagle
Posts: 1248
Incept: 2011-04-14

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Quote:
They emphasized that the discussions were merely about being prepared for any eventuality rather than planning for something they expect to happen.


Just the fact that the rest of Europe is putting plans in place COULD be enough of a factor to start bank runs across all of Europe. Just becuase the populace has allowed the bull**** to continue does not mean the populace is totally stupid. This one article, if it was widely read, probably caused 1,000's of people to take a little extra money out of their banks if not taking a lot extra out of the bank.

To me, the article gives a hint of panic on the part of the pols in Europe.


Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Argos
Posts: 6442
Incept: 2008-03-23
Gold
The Green Mountain State
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Obviously it's practical for the EU to have all sorts of contingency plans, including the types leaked to Reuters. Nonetheless, by making a big splash with a leak to Reuters, the aim is to cause concern, if not panic, in Greece in order to illustrate to the electorate how high the stakes are. The beauty with this scheme is that there would be no Troika policy action to blame if Greek banks get drained.

That's my thinking, anyway.
Genesis
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Admin A True American Patriot!
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The problem with causing a panic run like this is that it makes an exit a self-fulfilling prophecy.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Kamath
Posts: 1592
Incept: 2009-04-04

Sweden
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Syriza must still be able to form a government. As far as I know, the other parties are refusing to tear the deal up. So, even if he wins the election, that does not necessarily mean anything.

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"Yep - and that ****er didn't want to light either. I had to soak it in gasoline for a full day before that rat bastard thing would combust." - Karl Denninger
""We could not be more ill served if we had some South American tribal witch doctor shaking monkey bones at us. "
- Infidel
Ladyliberty
Posts: 100
Incept: 2012-05-08

Wisconsin
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REPORT: ITALIAN BANK DECLARES 'HOLIDAY'...

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl....
Asimov
Posts: 104659
Incept: 2007-08-26
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Quote:
Do they realize that making this threat could start Euro bank runs NOW?


They have to walk a tightrope between triggering it and bracing everybody for what they know is coming.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Shademan
Posts: 44
Incept: 2009-03-02

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They say this right at the start of Euro 2012. All of Europe is consumed with soccer/football right now.
Jstanley01
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inline

Whilst...

inline

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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum
Highrev
Posts: 5025
Incept: 2009-02-21
Silver
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Good, objective, sensible, and fairly deep background info here. Worth the read IMVHO.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenkam/2012/....


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Enlightened self-interest http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlightened....
HighRev's Open House is my internet hangout. Drop by whenever you like. The door is always open. smiley

Bertdilbert
Posts: 2694
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CA
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I just do not see much time left in all of this if any loans are going to be first in line to existing bondholders. Expect rates to rise as a result compounding the problem.

RE Spain.
Any aid that might come from the European Stability Mechanism, which is expected to start work next month, would enjoy a preferred creditor status second-only to the IMF, the spokesman confirmed.

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Jstanley01
Posts: 8268
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Highrev, thanks for the read. I question Mr. Kam's premise, however, that there's a "right thing" possible this point. Who says austerity won't produce social disorder? It already has, actually. If Greece is located "between the Devil and the deep blue sea," then it is what it is.

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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum

Goldbrick
Posts: 2946
Incept: 2008-01-23
Green
Indiana
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Pedal to the metal baby, right into the cliff face! The fuchers only care about their sinecures and will let the whole shebang collapse into a ruinous heap.

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"The higher I go, the crookeder it gets."
--Michael Corleone

"Instead of cursing the darkness, light a CONgressman."
Winstonsmith2009
Posts: 1061
Incept: 2009-08-05

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"REPORT: ITALIAN BANK DECLARES 'HOLIDAY'"

That happened last Thursday. Don't know how big that bank is. Not small. And note that they seem to specialize in ATMs and international money transfers:

"Banca Network Investimenti S.p.A. is the multi-channel bank that provides traditional banking and financial services through the phone or the Internet. The company offers free cash point withdrawal facilities in all ATM machines throughout Italy; credit card services; free international and national money transfers; trading of bonds, warrants and stocks; advisory services on funds and pension funds investments. Banca Network Investimenti S.p.A., formerly known as Banca Bipielle.Net SpA, is based in Lodi, Italy."

Reason: Typo
Bozonian
Posts: 19959
Incept: 2007-09-01
Green
Saratoga Springs, New York
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Headed down to ATM machine...

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The most expensive thing you can have is a closed mind. -- Geoffrey Filburt

Everything I write is my opinion and not to be considered proven fact. Nothing I write should be considered financial advice.
Aro
Posts: 7
Incept: 2010-01-12
Green
Copenhagen, Denmark
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The timing is perfect, the FSA are all busy watching soccer.
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