Fed Z1 Update: Ignore The Idiots
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-06-09 12:48
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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Fed Z1 Update: Ignore The Idiots
 

It just never ends, does it?

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Everyone knows America has too much debt. What they don’t know is that things are getting better, not worse.

Little by little, our economy is reducing its debt burden, slowly repairing the damage caused by 10, 20 or 30 years of excess.

If you want to know why economic growth has been so tepid, here’s your answer. Four years after the storm hit, the economy is still deleveraging. And it’s very hard for any economy to grow when everyone is focused on increasing their savings.

Savings?

Paying down (or defaulting) debt is not saving. 

And no, we're not actually reducing debt.  We're just shifting where it is held.

(Ed 6/10: Proportional chart replaced by the absolute one, as it appears people don't "get it" when it comes to proportional charts -- I believe the original more-accurately represented the relationship involved, but due to the garfing I have stuck the other one in there.)

Note that the net change is, well, nearly zero.  We're where we were in Q3 2007 on a ratio basis, which is hardly "healthy" by any stretch.  And if you look closely you'll see that the debt number is going up -- and faster than the GDP one is.

Where's it going up?

In Federal Government, that's where.  We're simply shifting where the debt resides.

Are we making any material progress?

No.

In fact, last quarter we added more debt than we did GDP.  Therefore, we're still going backward.

The numbers do not lie, but the spin machine remains engaged and on full-bore, filling your head with nonsense and excuses.

The fact of the matter is that the economy has not de-levered.  We're simply shifting where the debt resides, making it appear, if you look only at household and similar numbers, that "it's getting better."

It is, in fact, getting worse as we're shifting the unpayable to the Federal Government in a puerile and futile attempt to prevent the bad debt from being foreclosed upon, thereby revealing that the alleged "assets" that banksters have claimed as the predicate of their "strength" is in fact a lie.

Recapitalizing the banks in the back of the American people through shifting the voluntarily-lent money by the banksters to the public balance sheet is an active and outrageous fraud that currently totals roughly a trillion dollars a year, or about $3,000 per man, woman and child in the United States.

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Nuke_engineer
Posts: 2697
Incept: 2007-08-19
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You need to add another core precept to your list of things that must be done:

No public service position (political or otherwise) can yield a pension annuity higher than the 100% base pay at the time of retirement, which should be set for all jobs at 20 years, minimum.

Much of this debt will turn to pensions, and when Republican and Democratic, local, state and federal pensioners make 125% or even up to 700% of their base pay in pensions is probably a good part of the government debt problem.

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Trading and investing is understanding about people, emotions and corruption of government, corporations, banks and people using propaganda, lies, mathematics and bankster logic working against you.

Widgeon
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I think 60% of base pay would (still) be ridiculously generous.

Blurtman
Posts: 563
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Most if not all of what is written in the popular media is garbage. Now you know what happened to the kids who were on the high school newspaper. They may have gone to college, but their writing style is still the same and has not developed much at all.

Local news - stories for children.

Ads on the telly - fables for children.

Physically grown up children, that is.

Think about something as prevalent as advertisements. Actors are portraying what are supposed to be real people in real life situations. And yet, they are actors.

The story is the key. Our brains are hardwired to be hooked by a narrative that has no internal inconsistencies. This is how you sell to the child-like masses.

Obama - an actor. His tired rap - a narrative. Relationship to reality - the children have no clue. If it sounds plausible, OK, then.

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I have a reading comprehension problem and the owner banned me for repeatedly displaying it after being warned.
Tesla
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State of Disbelief
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Pensions after 20 years, at 100% ? Not sustainable. You should not have access to a pension until you start collecting (or not! smiley) Social Security - age 62 or 65. And the % of your pension should be based on # years - say, 20% of base pay after 25 years, 30% after 35 years, 40% after 40 years. Additionally, your pension should be calculated from the last 5 years average of base pay, no overtime additional.

Better yet, make all pensions defined contribution with a match, and get out from under the returns risk monkey altogether.

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"Even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and being kicked." -Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes

"Neither the wisest Constitution nor the wisest laws will secure the liberty and happiness of a people whose manners are universally corrupt." -Samuel Adams
Visualcsharp
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Well said, Blurtman. I 100% agree with your perspective. I tell my wife and family all the time about the way things really are.
Brianw
Posts: 15
Incept: 2009-09-10

Indiana
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Current fedgov. "pension"



Computation for Non-Disability Retirements

Here is how the basic FERS annuity formula is calculated:

FERS Basic Annuity Formula

Under Age 62 at Separation for Retirement
Or
Age 62 or Older With Less Than 20 Years of Service

1 percent of your high-3 average salary for each year of service
Age 62 or Older at Separation With 20 or More Years of Service 1.1 percent of your high-3 average salary for each year of service

Your benefit was computed differently, if you retired under one of the provisions below:

Special Provision for Air Traffic Controllers, Firefighters, Law Enforcement Officers, Capitol Police, Supreme Court Police, or Nuclear Materials Couriers
1.7% of your high-3 average salary multiplied by your years of service which do not exceed 20,
plus
1% of your high-3 average salary multiplied by your service exceeding 20 years

Member of Congress or Congressional Employee (or any combination of the two)
Must have at least 5 years of service as Member and/or Congressional Employee
1.7% of your high-3 average salary multiplied by your years of service as a Member of Congress or Congressional Employee which do not exceed 20,
plus
1% of your high-3 average salary multiplied by your years of other service

http://www.opm.gov/retire/pre/fers/compu....
Local_yokel
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LOL, author is getting mauled in the comments. But his hit rate is probably through the roof...
Pdxr13
Posts: 42
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Willamette Valley, Oregon
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Disagree with KD on "default". Default/BK can eliminate debt, and debt payments, making survival on current income possible and future increased income possible.

The difference between BK "official dismissal of debt" allowing hope for the future with concession-to-reality for the past, and non-BK default is that productivity is reduced to survival or less for society as collection-vultures circle to pick at any visible speck of savings or accumulated wealth. On a big enough scale (10's of millions of workers), default and eternal debt-collection leads to bad results.

Only by failure to be repaid will lenders learn their lesson about protecting assets of depositors. Oh yeah, bankers should be personally financially liable for operating losses (insurance legally prohibited, suicide should provide relief for their family) and criminally liable for what has happened recently. Federal oversight of banks should not include insurance or payments of any kind, only an honest and severe rating posted large next to the front door and the front page of web-presence.

I make deposits only in-person to tellers after giving a serious look at the occupants of the lobby. I expect bad things to begin happening in bank lobbies at some point, regardless of their single armed rent-a-Securatas man-in-black.

Cheers.

Debtpie
Posts: 534
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"And it’s very hard for any economy to grow when everyone is focused on increasing their savings."

Who are these "everyone"?

No one I know is focused on "increasing savings"; the people around me still spend every penny they make and/or can get from someone else either as a handout(uncle Sam) or a loan (credit cards).

The only "austerity" I see has been forced...as in the people are way in over their heads with debt and they can't find a single idiot to loan them more money...so they have no choice but to cut back...

I'll tell you what I see..I see people earning ZERO on stocks, bonds and CD's...while their income is stagnant (or falling)...and using what money they have to make the McMansion payment and keep up (the appearance anyway) of their "successful" [we ARE the Jones's] lifestyle...and physically looking like they're 65 years old when they're really only 45...

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A Leader, or an Opportunist? "A leader has the capacity of vision, the ability to see where things are headed before people in general see those things." Mitt Romney --- DebtPie's definition: a leader decides where "things" should head and "leads" us there.

Mtdm
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Karl,

Something is awry with your first chart http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?get_ga.... ... From the graph, in 1982 debt was more or less equal to GDP, i.e. debt/GDP=100%, however the debt/GDP line is showing as approx 180%. Maybe the scale is off?


P.S. never mind -- Karl clarified, see below...

Reason: added postscript for those reading later...
Dji
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Ponzi world 3rd rock from the sun
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where is the jump you ****ers smiley?

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What goes up Must come Down- Alan Parsons Project
Genesis
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Mdm read more carefully...

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Widgeon
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This is REALLY SHOCKINGLY BAD journalism. It looks like the fella wanted to write that the debt was decreasing so badly that he just ignored every piece of information he had and wrote the headline anyway. And, as many never read more than the headline - it must be true.

Mtdm
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Oh, OK. "Proportional debt" not debt, whereby you are setting the proportion such that it's starts off on a visual 1:1 at the start of the graph? Thanks for the clarification. Still, might be helpful to make the legend say proportional as well, not just the title...

P.S. might also help to make the left axis title say "GDP/Millions" rather than just "Millions"

P.P.S. but wait, isn't the left axis actually the right numbers for the Debt, not the GDP?

Reason: added postscripts
Genesis
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No right scale is percentage. Look again

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Mtdm
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Yeah, I think I have it now...

Orange is debt, using the left hand scale

Blue is the debt/GDP ratio, using the right hand scale

Green is GDP, with the scale not shown (but ranging over the timeline from (very) approximately $3 trillion to $14 trillion)

... right?
Genesis
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Green and Orange are left-hand scale. Blue/black-line is right-hand scale. Look at the bottom -- the key is right there.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Trades50
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It figures, Rex again. What did you expect from Nutting? Nutting but BS.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Ripley
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Brianw, many people currently eligible for retirement from the federal government are under the "old" plan, CSRS, which starts at 56.5% of one's high-three salary at 30 years and caps out at 80% of salary with 40 years of service.

You also forgot the FERS supplement for people who retire between age 55 and 62, which is based on what they would have gotten at age 62 under Social Security. Social Security presumes 40 years of work, so if you worked 30 yeas for the federal government, you would get 3/4 (30/40) of what you would get for Sooial Security at age 62. Typically, one who retires with 30 years of service gets a total pension of about 45% of their high-three when the supplement ia considered.
Dakine2004
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Military retirement = non-sustainable = this household has taken home $365K since 2002...
Bluebird
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Debtpie said "No one I know is focused on "increasing savings""

Same here. Everyone I know is buy this and buy that with credit cards. They gotta have the latest techie gadgets, cars, houses, exotic vacations. No one believes that the Ponzi bubble is going crash. Nope, these times we live in are 'normal' and with technology getting better all the time, there is nothing to worry about.
Agau
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The right scale is off
The line should be starting at 100% and finishing just over 200%?
Genesis
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No it's not, and if you're incapable of doing arithmetic it's not my problem. $54 trillion in debt and ~$15 trillion in GDP is approximately 350% (the actual numbers are a bit off those, but close enough with rounding.)

The left and right scales are correct.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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