What, You Mean It Works?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-06-06 21:22
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
Ignore this thread
What, You Mean It Works?
 

I'll be damned.....

Estonia has followed (as Krugman grudgingly admits) a roughly similar path: After a Great Depression–scale drop in GDP, the government attempted to keep the budget balanced (partly in the hopes of joining the euro) and has since seen 6 and 7 percent economic growth, though this has stalled recently, since their economy is heavily dependent on exports to the laggard euro zone.

Yep.

Oh, it worked here in America too when it was done. 

In a world with The Fed, believe it or not.

It was 1920/21. The Fed pulled excess liquidity in the middle of a nasty deflationary recession (prices fell by 15% at the retail level and 37% (!) at wholesale; the most-severe for any comparable period in American history) and The Federal Government balanced the budget.

The result?  The bankrupt institutions (including banks) were flushed and within 18 months the economy cleared and roared back -- not only returning to full employment but posting a gain in industrial production of an astonishing 60%!

"More debt" to solve a debt problem does not work. 

Yanking the rug out from under the counterfeiters of the currency who emitted bogus credit and thus led to the crisis in the first place does.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives
Archive Access
Get Adobe Flash player





Blogtalk 3:30 CT Mondays
Items To Look At


Discuss The Capital Markets along with daily technical analysis with our Gold Donor program.

Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker

Links and Blogroll
Our policy on reciprocal links: Send us an email with your information and why you think your blog or news site would make a good addition - in most cases reciprocal link requests will be granted.
Seeking Alpha Certified
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Looking for "The Best of Market Ticker"? Check out
Ticker Classics.

Visit the forum to discuss this and other investing-related topics; see the FAQ on the forum for information about Gold Donor status including access to our technical analysis video server.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

Market Ticker content may be reproduced or excerpted online provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media.

Submissions may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Leads on stories of current economic and political interest are always welcome. Our fax tip line is 850-897-9364; please include contact information with your transmission.

 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
User Info What, You Mean It Works? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Andysvw
Posts: 1734
Incept: 2010-06-26
Green
Tujunga Ca
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Funny that Bernanky ,Krugmen, and all those others never mention that. Could they be trapped by bias?
Savingsaretheway
Posts: 118
Incept: 2011-12-16

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I wish someone would ask Krugman about 1920/21 in a public setting. His face would turn cherry. I guarantee it.
Blueskies
Posts: 69
Incept: 2011-05-15

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
So true. Anyone who has a rational thought in their head would have let this all come tumbling down several years ago. But no...they had to tinker, and tinker, until they now realize...as an analogy... that their stop didn't trigger and their account will blow up unless they keep adding more money cuz of the margin calls.

we're kinda fooked.
Jstanley01
Posts: 8178
Incept: 2008-07-30
Silver A True American Patriot!
San Antonio, Texas
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Do it Ben, you ****tard. By now you know you have to. By now you have long known that you will have to. SO DO IT.

----------
You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum
Uppity_peasant
Posts: 3107
Incept: 2009-06-26

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
They NEED inflation, because The Bezzle doesn't work if money is tight enough to watch.

George Low wrote..
"There ain't no point loafing with a broke, because nothing falls off"


The sharps can't party hearty if there isn't cash blowing all over the landscape, from Ben's helicopter, or the ridiculous inflation that we've seen in the last 30 years.

Another thing that argues against deflation:

Quote:
Finally, in a deflationary economy, wages as well as prices often have to fall – and it’s a fact of life that it’s very hard to cut nominal wages — there’s downward nominal wage rigidity. What this means is that in general economies don’t manage to have falling wages unless they also have mass unemployment, so that workers are desperate enough to accept those wage declines.”


Who's going to tell the retired .gov ticks that their 30 bucks an hour for sitting on their ass @ 58 years old isn't going to be happening any more?

Just like ANYTHING the government touches - once the law has been passed, good luck changing it back or repealing it.

----------
====
If it's true that "assault weapons" are "weapons of war" and don't belong on the streets of America, why do the police need them? Who are the police at war with?
Vitchilo
Posts: 4602
Incept: 2011-04-27

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
It won't be done until all the banksters puppets in power right now are removed.

----------
"Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." -- H.L. Mencken
Burya_rubenstein
Posts: 944
Incept: 2007-08-08

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
Finally, in a deflationary economy, wages as well as prices often have to fall – and
it’s a fact of life that it’s very hard to cut nominal wages


It is perfectly okay for wages to drop so long as prices drop faster. The important thing about a pile of money is how much stuff it can buy.
Bertdilbert
Posts: 2658
Incept: 2008-12-22
Gold
CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
This solution is politically impossible to achieve in our current environment.

----------
Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Andysvw
Posts: 1734
Incept: 2010-06-26
Green
Tujunga Ca
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The environment they created. So they painted themselves into a corner. Political parties come and go. I cant wait for these to go.
Cutemloose
Posts: 699
Incept: 2008-02-12
Green
Southern England
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
+1 "Burya".

By devaluing the dollar the system puts pressure on the consumer by reducing the stuff they can buy with their limited dollars. The consumer has a choice between reducing consumption or adding more value.

Those who export or do things which have an international benchmarked value (and therefore add value) will do well in nominal dollar terms (income will go up).

But to the rest -the world looks increasingly austere.

The criticism of the current method of currency destruction is that it specifically injects the debasing units into the very parts of the system that caused the problem in the first place and therefore does nothing to clear the system.

The current plan is about trying to protect people of a favoured status.

The approach both provides some of the necessary pain but maintains the disease.

Unfortunately this will lead to both more pain and an escalation of the disease- until they change course or circumstances overwhelm them.

----------
Disclosure: I am of the Austrian school, of Rothbardian persuasion. I believe in minimal government. Spent 5 years and possibly $1million to see if business can be run on this basis (leaderless). Good news for me is that it can, and profitably, bad news is that it only works with responsible people.
Heffalump
Posts: 131
Incept: 2008-04-05

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
To play the Devil's advocate, I have to mention that Estonians have several factors working for them.
They have two neighbors - Finland and Sweden - that are several times both bigger and richer, so Estonia has an export market to rely on. And investors from both of these countries have provided significant part of the funding that has allowed Estonia to develop since 1991 when it managed to restore its independence. This has allowed to soften the blow received from sudden credit contraction; without these factors, the government would been unable to avoid accumulating additional debt, or the loss of production would have been more severe. So, compared to a larger economy, the Estonians have had it relatively easy. Also, we have to remember that the recovery has been possible because of exports. So, as the rest of the Europe will sink further into recession, Estonia will experience stronger headwinds as well.

----------
"If rate I raise, burst, the frothy bubble will. If rates I lower, inflation will I get.
Unclear, is the housing market."
Flappingeagle
Posts: 1227
Incept: 2011-04-14

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Burya said:
Quote:
It is perfectly okay for wages to drop so long as prices drop faster. The important thing about a pile of money is how much stuff it can buy.
BINGO! There are two things about money, what can you buy with it, and; will it hold its relative value.

I work with a lot of economists and they are all Keynesian clowns who say that the government has to spend during a recession or things will get worse. They look at me like I fell off of a turnip truck when I say "and getting worse would be a good thing. It would get the dead wood out of the system and we could have a recovery."

Flap

----------
Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Xqqme
Posts: 625
Incept: 2009-01-09
Green
Ohio
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
QE3 is coming, bitchez! Everyone is getting on board!

Yellen said. "Given these headwinds, I believe that a highly accommodative monetary policy will be needed for quite some time to help the economy mend."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-the....
Crzymorse
Posts: 1189
Incept: 2010-06-25

Maryland
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Ride the rally to June 19th and then sell. I would look for some corporate bond purchases this time around in the QE mix.

I'm getting the feeling, the EU is going to punish the periphery until they cede independence. Krugman is just the academic sucker at the poker table talking about GDP. This isn't about economics, its about manipulating the situation to gain political control in Europe. The Germans, EU and the IMF are going to take each of these countries to the edge of the cliff and then take control. Who cares about the debt if you get control of the assets.

BTW- the United States was founded the same way, many states had huge debts and major bills to pay after the revolutionary war. The debt was transferred to the federal gov't and the states ceded independence to the republic, once you check in you can never leave. They don't teach that in history class. Huge Debt = loss of independence. Look at the results of our big spending the last decade and the results. The federal reserve holds almost every mortgage in the country, homeland security can listen to all your phone calls and monitor your web surfing, Obamacare is going to ration your healthcare eventually decide your diet for you and you can be designated a terrorist and be detained indefinitely. 41% of the US population is receiving a gov't check or benefit, not long now.

Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ