Europe And China Near Detonation
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-06-04 15:11
by Karl Denninger
in Blogtalk
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Europe And China Near Detonation
 

In short -- "Here It Comes"

Will The Fed ease?  How bad will things get here in America, and when?  We'll explore the fiscal cliff, Europe and more.

3:30 Central today at http://blogtalkradio.com/marketticker

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info Europe And China Near Detonation in forum [Market-Ticker]
Asimov
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Sounds good!

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Bshj
Posts: 347
Incept: 2007-08-07
Silver
Near Huntsville Texas - Execution Capital
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I suppose that is why we are closing at close to the highs of the day....bad news is good news!
Ktrosper
Posts: 1500
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Silver
ft collins co
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Gen wrote..
Will The Fed ease?

Is the Pope Catholic?

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The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates
The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle
Liberty exists now in the spaces government has not yet chosen to occupy.-Doc Zero
I anticipate that 10 Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders will blow me this evening.-K.D
Jb350
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Detroit metro
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30 year bond at two and a half percent? Is this the twilight zone? We blew out the '08 low didnt we?

I was sure they would announce another QE before they let the '08 low get taken out. It makes such perfect sense. They are running the biggest criminal racket ever devised. Japan at 28 year lows. And they did QE after QE after QE. Robbed, raped and looted Japan until there was nothing left. They're doing the same thing here probably because they GOT AWAY WITH IT in Japan.
Anti
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Couldn't they QE by buying some dog-do like they did in 2008?

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Health is better than health insurance
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Over the past 60 years, thousands of people have used the Gerson Therapy to recover from so-called “incurable” diseases such as cancer, diabetes, heart disease and arthritis.
Eaglewwit
Posts: 6054
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Green
SoCal
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Karl,

Why can't the Fed do QE with MBS again instead of T's if the debt ceiling is not raised? Don't forget Ben will go to Congress and claim Armageddon if they don't raise it. Bread and Circus.
Lizardqueen
Posts: 3558
Incept: 2008-04-01
Green A True American Patriot!
He's cute, but he can't swim
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Argh, missed it - how long before it's up on the on-demand list?

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"Pull your pants up, turn your hat around, and get a job"
---P.J. O'Rourke
Asimov
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Won't take long.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Avianphlu
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Ulster NY
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"get out of debt....get ready" "its probably already too late"

yup
Ilikecoffee
Posts: 1563
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Green
cold , AK
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Raising rates would kill the economy. Who would buyhouses and cars if rates went up?

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You can trust the government, ask any American Indian.

"When people lose everything and they have nothing left to lose, they lose it" Gerald Celente
Pitz
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"Who would buyhouses and cars if rates went up?"

The folks who benefit from rising (and high) rates perhaps, such as savers, producers, etc.


Interest rates don't describe the overall wealth of an economy (or lack thereof), but rather, the rate of transfer of wealth from the savers to the borrowers, or vice versa. A flow variable, not a stock variable.

Having said that, I think that savers have had it too good over the past 30 years, compared to producers. The best asset class for returns over the past 30 years has been US treasury bonds, not stocks, not labour. The economy can't grow if the saver class is over-rewarded (relatively speaking) compared to the investor/producer class. ZIRP is a necessity towards this end, and ultimately, an economy recovery.

Bertdilbert
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CA
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"Instant depression, just add water"

Damn Karl, you can cook too...

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Patriarch
Posts: 982
Incept: 2007-10-18

your account summary
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Pitz said, "I think that savers have had it too good over the past 30 years, compared to producers."
I disagree. ZIRP almost forces savers to invest in higher risk without adequate rewards, especially in an environment of selective law/regulation enforcement. This skewed environment encourages theft by the owners of those investment vehicles sold to J6P who can afford to 'sponsor' their own elected policy-makers to effectively immunize them from prosecution for their illegal sales or market manipulation.
Savers have been screwed for 30 yrs because they played by the rules, and the .gov, .fed, .state, .local and Wall Street preyed upon them. Remember, they can ALWAYS tax the crap out of almost any goods and services purchased (especially Real Estate) within their domains, opting to spend those tax dollars on which-ever entities can be counted on to vote in the status quo. Unions, FSA, Prison systems, state/fed employees, etc...
Savers have greater individual independence, and that needs to be encouraged. If people have more savings to protect, they will work toward minimizing government intrusion into their lives and properties.

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Our elected take an oath to serve. Time to add: “I will not serve in a capacity which I am not able to comprehend or am incapable of by mental defect of any kind, nor will I use the excuse of intellective deficiency if found in violation of this oath/affirmation”, which backs charging wayward politicians with treason.
Bertdilbert
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Pitz,

I do not see your argument. The tilt has been to discourage saving and to encourage spending. To then use the return on treasuries to state savers have been overly rewarded is just bunk. We have now reached the point where money no longer has value, in that if money had value, it would actually earn the holder a return on investment. Now you can't get **** for your money. If you think earning a return on savings below the rate of inflation is a reward, you are nuts. But that is where we have ended up.

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Bozonian
Posts: 19889
Incept: 2007-09-01
Green
Saratoga Springs, New York
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I don't know.

If they let the banks and market go under, the FDIC will have to cover trillions in deposits. The SIPC will have to cover trillions in losses of hypothecated assets. I don't see how even deflation won't result in massive printing.

They won't be able to repay treasury debt, interest and who's going to bail out retirement funds that go under?

The FED needs to get money out to PRODUCERS and quit giving it to the banks which are essentially parasites (except for the organizational services they offer).

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Forget about blaming, fighting with, or crediting other people. The only real challenge in life, is with yourself. -- Me

Everything I write is my opinion and not to be considered proven fact. Nothing I write should be considered financial advice.

Ignorantsavage
Posts: 702
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united States
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Maybe it's just my broken sarcasm detector, but I'm quite certain that the point of most of Genesis' writing for the last year or so has been to underscore that the big banks CANNOT be saved. Period. Nothing can be done. They're toast, bankrupt, and any further attempt to "fix" them by covering up their fraud is to invite in the next Weimar Republic.

Printing leads straight to Zimbabwe and the absolute destruction of the Dollar.

There just isn't enough available buying power. Printing doesn't create more buying power.
Bertdilbert
Posts: 2661
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Quote:
The FED needs to get money out to PRODUCERS and quit giving it to the banks which are essentially parasites (except for the organizational services they offer).


Giving money to producers does not fix ANYTHING when the problem is lack of demand (overcapacity) and existing demand has been due to a ponzi economy. Saying such things is just supporting another form of malinvestment.

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Noodleman
Posts: 2391
Incept: 2008-11-01

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Fear not!

The Great Cramer says.......that even if the EU collapses it's 'highly unlikely' that we would revisit the stock market lows of 2008-09.

What a relief. We can sleep sound! :>)

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"Ammunition beats persuasion when you are looking for freedom." Will Rogers, 4 Nov 1879 - 15 Aug 1935

Glenn
Posts: 19
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Prishtina, Kosovo
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We won't have time to stop and revisit the market lows of 2008-09, but we might be able to wave as we are going past on our journey to new, unthinkable lows...
Gates
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Incept: 2008-01-29
Gold A True American Patriot!
Scottsdale
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The QUESTION Glenn, is when do you exit your shorts on the plunge into the abyss:-) I HAD 30-40 put contracts open on the S&P during the Flash Crash, a $4K position went to about $17k in about 17 minutes - but I COULD NOT EXIT!
I put in a limit(markets were not executing)order FAR below what I saw on my terminal and salvaged a nice gain but no where NEAR what it should have been - counter party risk bro - if the other side is blown up, you have NADA... Karl has warned of this repeatedly - I lived it!

Pitz
Posts: 860
Incept: 2010-04-08

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Quote:
To then use the return on treasuries to state savers have been overly rewarded is just bunk.


I dunno, I see the sort of returns that have been given to 'savers' by owning treasuries, and I see such as being very outrageous compared to the returns the economy has provided to people who have taken actual risks. Whether it be the owners of equity, or most rank-and-file workers themselves.

Banks effectively are leveraged plays on debt, and banks are the institutions of savers. If "Grandma" thinks she's entitled to a return that exceeds the rate of inflation, what's wrong with 'forcing' her to actually allocate her capital towards that of productive businesses? Why should the government be in the business of 'guaranteeing' a nominal (or even worse, a real) return to anyone? I see absolutely nothing wrong with creating an environment in which the only way to earn an investment return is to take 'risk'. After all, that's how it works in the real world -- there is no free lunch!

Quote:
They won't be able to repay treasury debt, interest and who's going to bail out retirement funds that go under?


Do retirement funds even exist? Or is the whole concept merely an figment of imagination and of bad accounting? The whole concept of retirement plans pre-disposes that the young will gladly pay taxes to service government debt while the retired feast on so-called assets which they didn't bother to accumulate on a net basis of public liabilities.

Seems to me, if the liabilities get cancelled out through a hyperinflation, the assets, accordingly, get wiped out as well. But at least once such happens, the young will have an incentive to work and will be able to build equity.

Sushihorn
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Arlington, TX
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Pitz
The only people rewarded were bond speculators - not savers.

Savers only got the pathetic interest from financial repression and now ZIRP. They did not enjoy the capital gain. Notice again that the policy benefitted the big institutional speculators. Mom and pop with their savings in a bank got screwed every which way.

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Pitz
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Quote:
Mom and pop with their savings in a bank got screwed every which way.


Since we've had Treasury Direct, and discount brokers for at least the past 20 years, anyone accepting less than the rate of T-bills/T-bonds on their 'savings' basically only has themselves to blame.

The interest paid to 'savers' has been plenty over the past few decades. In the past decade, by far exceeding the rate of growth in the stock market, and arguably the economy itself. If you compare long-term assets such as US 10-year and 30-year T-bonds, to equities, the observed equity risk premium has been non-existent, which further supports the argument that financial repression of savers has been non-existent.
Sushihorn
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Arlington, TX
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Pitz
The interest on T-bills has been pathetic and is now virtually non-existent.

Unless you speculated on risky long-duration bonds you got less than the actual rate of inflation - and then had to pay taxes on those illusory gains. If you speculate in 30-year paper or zero coupons you won. If you wanted stable value sort-term paper you were screwed.

----------
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Build a banker a fire and keep him warm for a night.
Set a banker on fire and keep him warm for the rest of his life.
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