Get OUT Of The Futures Markets
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-06-03 19:30
by Karl Denninger
in Market Musings
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Get OUT Of The Futures Markets
 

It's happening again and if you get reamed don't say you weren't warned.

In 2008 there were repeated instances where the futures gapped ~20 handles overnight, clearing out the stack and gapping over your stop, filling you on the other side for hideous losses.  Stop orders are worthless when this happens -- all they do is lock in a loss as you fill on the other side (which usually is the extreme print) and then the market reverses some of the move, costing you twice.

There's no defense against this when the other side of the trade is a robot.  The only defense is not to be involved at all.

A good while ago I did a video on HFT games in the stack -- orders repeatedly appearing and disappearing with no chance for you to possibly act against them.  These orders are not intended to execute, but rather are intended to "bait" some other robot to go against them and then they're pulled.

It's a cat and mouse game, basically, and you have no chance as a human against them.

They're back in the stack this evening.

GET OUT. 

DO NOT PARTICIPATE.

YOU WILL LOSE MONEY, MAYBE YOUR ENTIRE ACCOUNT OR WORSE.  IF YOU THINK YOU KNOW WHICH WAY THE MARKET WILL GAP YOU'RE GUESSING AND IT DOESN'T MATTER IF YOU'RE RIGHT OR WRONG ONCE OR TWICE -- YOU WILL EVENTUALLY BE WRONG RESULTING IN A DISASTROUS WIPE-OUT.

This crap was prevalent during the 08/09 meltdown and it's back.  There has been exactly nothing done about it since the meltdown and it is how small retail traders get their entire account wiped out.

Go play golf or fish instead -- you know how much that round of golf or fishing trip is going to cost you in advance.

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User Info Get OUT Of The Futures Markets in forum [Market-Ticker]
Flappingeagle
Posts: 1229
Incept: 2011-04-14

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Haven't some countries implemented a system where if you don't let every 10th or 20th (or whatever th) order execute you have to start paying a penalty?

A rule like that would never effect the little guy but would devastate the robot trading.

It seems like a good idea on its face. Comments?

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Genesis
Posts: 130805
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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Well it doesn't apply here..... and this is the market I'm talking about...

I personally like that AND a requirement that all bids or offers remain valid for some minimum time to allow a human to hit them (e.g. ~2 seconds, ~5 seconds, etc)

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Swingtrader
Posts: 9108
Incept: 2007-08-12
Green
United Oligarchic Goldman Sachs States of America
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oops, since the futures determine where the market opens - duh, all done.

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Swing said "Well, it is collapsing as we watch.This is what it looks like." Australian federal judge Jayne Jagot, doing what US judges need to do!

Maddymax
Posts: 4664
Incept: 2008-02-26
Green
PONZIVILLE
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Maybe obama can have corzine regulate futures market since he has lot of experience and a great fund raiser

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Ben's policy will lead to wage deflation and commodity inflation which will lead to the Greatest Depression and Uprising Ever.
Who needs TA we got POMO
Flappingeagle
Posts: 1229
Incept: 2011-04-14

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Gen there needs to be a third component: NO DO OVERS. If your HFT algo has a logic hole and blows 100 billion of your firm's money on bad trades; to ****ing bad. You want to live by HFT, then die by it.

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Genesis
Posts: 130805
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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That's not the problem -- the algos are fast enough to avoid it most of the time.

What happens is this -- the order is "fake" and not intended to execute, but rather is intended to bait the other guy. When it "succeeds" the second robot throws an order against the bait which is pulled before it can fill. The result is that the entire stack is wiped out as the fill goes through the stack, since the other bid or offer was canceled and no longer exists.

The baiting robot then sticks an order on the end of the spike and rides it the other way trading out of it on the retrace. It's instant money at everyone else's expense. If you get caught by one of these you can lose 20 large or more in an instant and there's NOTHING you can do about it.

There is NO WAY for you to win on this as you're a solid 100ms or more behind them simply due to distance. By the time you see it the event has already happened and it's too late.

GET OUT AND STAY OUT as long as this is going on.

If you don't, thinking "it won't happen to me", I don't want to hear the whining if your account gets blown up. I got ass****ed a couple of times by this during the 08-09 meltdown and I know what to look for now. When I see it it's time to NOT TRADE.

You're a fool if you're trying to trade against this sort of thing as you WILL lose every time -- your orders are VISIBLE to the robots but you can't possibly compete against their speed.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Goforbroke
Posts: 5350
Incept: 2007-11-30
Gold A True American Patriot!
Just call me 'Comrade'
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It's a battle of the Gods and Giants, and guess who loses ...

inline

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We have met the enemy and it is us. -- Pogo
Throxxofvron
Posts: 10341
Incept: 2009-02-17
Green
Hyper-Speculative Psycho-Facsistic Parabolic Blow-Off
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Call it what it IS: a Looting Operation.

They are cleaning out Retail Players and likely setting up a reversal in the futes so they can ride the open.

200 DMA be damned.
The traps have all been set, this is just the first trip -wire test; -this bitch is either gonna fly or plummet right out of the gate and it has already been decided which...


The 'Droids need their own little algos only Matrix where they can **** with each Other to their hearts content: a closed exchange where the participants can only play against Each Other and where everything being bought or sold is a share of the constituent Matrix Trading Houses ON that exchange -and nothing else.

Let them try to exist only by feeding off of Each Other inside their servers and see how many cycles they last before their Code Jocks pull the plug and throw Themselves out the windows.

**** Them ALL.

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DIONYSUS: " Thou hast no knowledge of the life thou art leading; thy very existence is now a mystery to thee. " -from 'The Bacchantes' By Euripides “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” -George Orwell

Raftermanfmj
Posts: 3370
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Green
USA
Online
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Tickercon Zero, launch on warning?

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I have never wished to cater to the crowd; for what I know they do not approve, and what they approve I do not know. - Epicurus
Oderint dum metuant - Caligula & Police State USA
Widgeon
Posts: 13481
Incept: 2007-08-30
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In '08/'09 I had a decent bit of FXP. I had a stop set WAY DOWN - I can't recall exactly - maybe 12% down. The bastards hit it on "one of those days." Actually, mine was the last one taken out, I was able to review later. I actually called the Broker and told that was complete bs and they, by facilitating it, were no better than the exchanges, etc. That they at least had some pull to tell the exchanges this had to stop, etc.

Well, my accounts are all closed now. Every one. Haven't traded a single issue in 2 years - used be several hundred trades per year.

Penguinzee
Posts: 226
Incept: 2010-06-13

Tampa Bay, FL
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Anyone trading in this market is crazy, but we already know that...

Futes are looking downright fugly atm, it might be a trap, but Asia looks like it's opening well in the red tonight too, so we'll see how this plays out... London will be closed for the jubilee, so no London Whale trades to affect things...

We will probably have a rough day tomorrow, but I don't think it's crash time quite yet-still have the Greek elections, and there's no more polling until the elections, meaning all of Europe is going to be on pins and needles till June 18th... I also think that while there are contingency plans already in place for another QE pop-gun, I don't think they're going to announce it just yet, but maybe some swap lines will get passed around again like a party favor at a biker party...

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Crime is far too lucrative a game to let the little people play.-popofthebright
Dji
Posts: 1245
Incept: 2009-04-21
Silver
Ponzi world 3rd rock from the sun
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Hockey season over yet ????? cause here come the stick saves smiley

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Don't be a bag holder-Me

What goes up Must come Down- Alan Parsons Project
Quick
Posts: 112
Incept: 2008-03-08

southeast
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Markets now are a total casino, strictly for the gambler !

But you can always try for a dividend and hope you dont lose it all on the share price !!
Frat
Posts: 1935
Incept: 2009-07-15
Silver
NKY
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Gen, Widge, for those financially-retarded of us, what time frame from 08/09 did this happen, and what were some of the effects? Besides, of course, what you've already said above....

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We're ****ed. Where's Henry Bowman when you need him?
Asimov
Posts: 104068
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Gold
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Stack seems to have settled down, I've not seen any signs of bids being pulled in any quantities for a while now.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Nevertoolate
Posts: 1222
Incept: 2007-08-26
Gold A True American Patriot!
San Antonio de Bexar de runover with illegals, Texas
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July 2009, Gen actually had a screenshots of the bids "disappearing".

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"Socialist never mind stealing, as long as they are the ones doing the stealing. They never mind lying, as long as they are doing the lying."-Mannfm11

Before you attempt to beat the odds, be sure that you can survive the odds beating you.
Antone
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50 cent spread on /ES? Has that been happening all night? It's been awhile since I've seen spreads blow out like that.

In 2008, a full dollar spread was common.

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As if anything has changed:

Wir sind gefickt.
Asimov
Posts: 104068
Incept: 2007-08-26
Gold
East Tennessee Eastern Time
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I've not noticed anything over 0.25. No gaps in the 1m chart either. (Either TOS or IB.)

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.

Blueskies
Posts: 72
Incept: 2011-05-15

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Karl, are you talking ES in particular or all futures in general?
Az
Posts: 2386
Incept: 2008-09-22
Green A True American Patriot!
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Sounds like "heads up poker" w/lots of bluffing. If they presented in (neutrino) stream video, then individual traders could make side bets on which computer wins the hand/game ... cause that's about the only trading one can do anymore.

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Whistleblowers R my heros
Lowbeyond
Posts: 16938
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Green A True American Patriot!
CO aka West NJ/East CA
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Hey were only down 8-9. But I know what u mean.

We need lld for old times sake. Ha.

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Maybe it was a birdy bread-bomber from the future?!
Antone
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Green
Seditionia, USSA
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Okay, the 50 cent spread I saw just must have been some bid/ask that was taken out before getting filled in again.

When we start seeing 50 cent+ spreads in /ES in the afterhours, you know **** is getting real!

Until then though, eh. I'm not too worried about the sharks quite yet. We still have a bit until things start going critical.

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As if anything has changed:

Wir sind gefickt.
Genesis
Posts: 130805
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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Blue -- /Es in particular but NOT limited there. The games can (and do) happen anywhere, but it's more-easily seen in the /ES.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Blueskies
Posts: 72
Incept: 2011-05-15

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Karl, I don't tend to trade ES, but I do watch it. There was some crazy chit with beans and gold on Friday however...

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