PIMpCO's Gross: When Will The Admission Come?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-05-31 10:18
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
Ignore this thread
PIMpCO's Gross: When Will The Admission Come?
 

There comes a time when one must ask -- how long will the self-deception continue?

Yet while the whales have no immediate worries about extinction, their environment is changing – and changing for the worse. The global monetary system which has evolved and morphed over the past century but always in the direction of easier, cheaper and more abundant credit, may have reached a point at which it can no longer operate efficiently and equitably to promote economic growth and the fair distribution of its benefits. Future changes, which lie on a visible horizon, may not be so beneficial for our ocean’s oversized creatures.

Really?  Ever-cheaper and more abundant credit has promoted economic growth?

When and where did this take place?

I'm truly interested because I know where it didn't take place -- over the last 30 years in the United States!

The provision of ever-more credit has never, over the last 30 years, led to more GDP growth than the credit extended.  That is, the thesis that extension of credit leads to economic progress net-net has been disproved.

What has been proved repeatedly, however, is that the "whales" -- like Gross and the big banks -- have eaten all the plankton.  The problem is that as the above graph shows there was never an increase in plankton or even a sustainable reproduction of them and thus the population of food up the chain has been depleted on a sequential basis for 30 years.

That Bill Gross uses a sea analogy is interesting.  There are myriad examples of this sort in the area of fishing and sustainable fishing stocks, where everything appears fine and "catch" goes up -- right up until it craters as the population collapses.  Ever-increasing efficiency through better and larger nets, bigger fishing vessels and faster and "better" ways of catching the fish lead everyone to think the sea has an inexhaustible resource in the form of fish, but this is in fact not true.  The fish must spawn at a rate that allows them to survive to adulthood and be caught; if you catch fish faster than the new ones can grow to adulthood eventually the population collapses to zero.

Thus it is in the financial world as well.  We have lied to the American people and in fact the people of the world for 30 years about how "credit" and "borrowing" leads to economic progress.  It does not -- it in fact leads to privation and destruction, as the fact of the matter is that the cheapening of borrowing has never, historically, led to economic growth at a rate that exceeds that of the borrowing!

In other words we have run a serial ponzi scheme for 30 years and now, suddenly, Bill Gross finds that we've run out of suckers!

Or, to put it Bill's way, the plankton are disappearing and so are the little fish on which the larger fish depend.  The problem is that just as with fishing this didn't happen overnight -- it happened because for 30 years self-deluded and self-interested people like Bill Gross have argued for and supported the unsupportable and impossible-to-finance -- the game that we can always find another sucker, another  "big growth opportunity" and another means to finance deficit spending and leverage.

The claim was a lie as even the most-rudimentary understanding of basic exponential math demonstrates and now the truth is intruding into Bill's consciousness -- as he, and the others at the top, begin to starve.

Of course Bill continues to deny that he was responsible for eating all the fish and indirectly eating all the plankton.... even though he was.

Now what?

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives
Archive Access
Get Adobe Flash player





Blogtalk 3:30 CT Mondays
Items To Look At


Discuss The Capital Markets along with daily technical analysis with our Gold Donor program.

Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker

Links and Blogroll
Our policy on reciprocal links: Send us an email with your information and why you think your blog or news site would make a good addition - in most cases reciprocal link requests will be granted.
Seeking Alpha Certified
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Looking for "The Best of Market Ticker"? Check out
Ticker Classics.

Visit the forum to discuss this and other investing-related topics; see the FAQ on the forum for information about Gold Donor status including access to our technical analysis video server.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

Market Ticker content may be reproduced or excerpted online provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media.

Submissions may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Leads on stories of current economic and political interest are always welcome. Our fax tip line is 850-897-9364; please include contact information with your transmission.

 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
User Info PIMpCO's Gross: When Will The Admission Come? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Bagbalm
Posts: 4254
Incept: 2009-03-19
Green
Just North of Detroit
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
These folks can't separate the score markers from the reality in their minds.
Arius
Posts: 15
Incept: 2011-11-04

California/USA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Increasing debt was required by the government to fund its continually growing Welfare/Warfare State. The debt super cycle collapse that we are falling into will end it. We are living at the end of a five hundred year cycle of history.
Eaglewwit
Posts: 6054
Incept: 2007-11-30
Green
SoCal
Banned
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Say what you want about Gross, but I still respect the guy. He is the most honest Whale you will find, remember that is in a relative sense. I saw this piece as a warning to his investors that he may not be able to get positive real returns for them in the future.
Genesis
Posts: 130691
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
He's holding a lot of potentially-worthless paper.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Eaglewwit
Posts: 6054
Incept: 2007-11-30
Green
SoCal
Banned
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I put all my 401k in TRF awhile back. With the 10 year sub 1.6%, I think it may be time to sell it.
Infidel
Posts: 5463
Incept: 2007-08-27
Green A True American Patriot!
between here and there
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Bill thinks he's a big fish, he's just holding one of the bags for the shadow banking families until they snap their fingers and *poof* he's a grease spot on the highway to hell.



----------
"DON'T BELIEVE THEM, DON'T FEAR THEM, DON'T ASK ANYTHING OF THEM." -ALEXANDER SOLZHENITSYN.

Frat
Posts: 1935
Incept: 2009-07-15
Silver
NKY
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
Now what?



smiley

----------
We're ****ed. Where's Henry Bowman when you need him?
Pietertvl
Posts: 3589
Incept: 2007-12-05

NFA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Expanding credit, if also expanding in relation to income, necessarily contributes to nothing more than TRANSITORY AND REVERSIBLE growth. Because credit simply enables buying now based on expectations of future income. Ie, pulling demand forward. Current (or past) spending off of credit will diminish the fraction of income actually available at some point in the future to support demand. Doesn't matter if the private sector has behaved, if the govt sector hasn't, the slump must come when the private sector is called upon to "bail out"* the govt. Silly as that sounds, but of course the public sector simply subsists on the private sector. Ultimately, that's all there is.

*Bail out in sense either of higher taxes or diminished benefits.

----------
"All the perplexities, confusion and distresses in America arise not from defects in the constitution or confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, as much from downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit, and circulation." ~ John Adams

Tinsu
Posts: 43
Incept: 2009-09-18

New Lenox, IL
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I don't think Bill denies this: "Bill continues to deny that he was responsible for eating all the fish and indirectly eating all the plankton.... even though he was."

Rather, I think he admits they have been feeding of the plankton and small fish (ie. us)for the last 30 years. It was easy living, and the whales got blubbery fat off of us. Bill's article today is really an alert to the other whales that the game has changed and they (the other whales) are going to starve to death if they rely on the plankton.

So, if the plankton are dying off, the real question is "what's the new food source for the whales?" It's probably each other, and PIMpCO is setting itself up to feed of the smaller and weaker whales since they know there is not enough plankton to go around.
Debtpie
Posts: 534
Incept: 2009-12-17

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
"Really? Ever-cheaper and more abundant credit has promoted economic growth?"

I'd bet that if you asked him to expand upon that statement that he would admit it was false growth.

There is no doubt that government deficit spending "grows" the economy...but it is fake and eventually comes to an abrupt halt at some point with a nasty contraction that wipes out all of the fake economic "growth".

----------
A Leader, or an Opportunist? "A leader has the capacity of vision, the ability to see where things are headed before people in general see those things." Mitt Romney --- DebtPie's definition: a leader decides where "things" should head and "leads" us there.

Debtpie
Posts: 534
Incept: 2009-12-17

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
"He's holding a lot of potentially-worthless paper."

He's a bond fund manager...people send him money that they want invested in bonds....what else can he do?

I'm surprised he's so honest...one of these days he will seriously spook his customers and there will be a lot of dead bodies found in the doorway once the smoke clears...

----------
A Leader, or an Opportunist? "A leader has the capacity of vision, the ability to see where things are headed before people in general see those things." Mitt Romney --- DebtPie's definition: a leader decides where "things" should head and "leads" us there.
Financial
Posts: 76
Incept: 2010-12-08
Green
Iowa
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Not all bonds are created equal...

The FT article (Bond king’s Lear-like Treasuries renunciation) should also be viewed in the light of their taking on a huge MBS position which may not bear fruit if it doesn't get future Fed bailouts.. and future Fed QE seems to be running into significant headwinds esp food price increases in MENA countries...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bill-gr....

Bill Gross Telegraphs QE2 Green Light: Buys MBS On Margin

"""Is Gross saying that Bernanke will once again be forced to come out and buy MBS in addition to USTs? or 2) did Gross just get screwed on his doubling down MBS? With fraudclosure forcing such reputable MBS managers as Gundlach to claim that it will have no impact on their business model, we are also certain that the entire Fashion Island campus is sweating bullets currently. If the entire MBS model is indeed unwound as some speculate, this could well be the end of PIMCO"""
Mannfm11
Posts: 3537
Incept: 2009-02-28
Gold
DFW, Tx
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
KD, the serial ponzi scheme has been going on for over 200 years. The 1970's was merely the last trick and what transpired since is what we got from the trick. The next trick is probably sustainable development, meaning carbon taxes and world war. It is better known as liquidation.

----------
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Tm22721
Posts: 975
Incept: 2008-01-09
Gold
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I think the better analogy is finance as a parasite that has finally killed its host.

----------
The country is terminally ill and IT JUST WANTS A PILL.

The only way up is down.
Analog
Posts: 542
Incept: 2010-12-29
Gold
arkansas ozarks
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
i sure like that line "ate all the plankton".
GE 's motto once was "Progress is our most important product". Now it's debt.
The premise needs a Franklin-esque quip.
If a penny saved is a penny earned, what is a penny borrowed ?

Charles Lamb knew:
Quote:
THE TWO RACES OF MEN.

The human species, according to the best theory I can form of is composed of two distinct races, the men who borrow, and the men who lend. To these two original diversities may be reduced all those impertinent classifications of Gothic and Celtic tribes, white men, black men, red men. All the dwellers upon earth, "Parthians, and Medes, and Elamites," flock hither, and do naturally fall in with one or other of these primary distinctions. The infinite superiority of the former, which I choose to designate as the great race, is discernible in their figure, port, and a certain instinctive sovereignty. The latter are born degraded. "He shall serve his brethren." There is something in the air of one of this cast, lean and suspicious; contrasting with the open, trusting, generous manners of the other....

credit for quote --> http://www.angelfire.com/nv/mf/elia1/2ra....

Soros
Posts: 3108
Incept: 2007-08-31

La La Land
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List

----------
So long and thanks for all the fish.
Poer
Posts: 1385
Incept: 2008-09-28
Silver
'Eppur si muove!'
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Bill Gross is playing with an Ace in the hole- but he still may be bluffing?

----------
"The degree to which a man substitutes the judgment of others for his own, failing to look at reality directly, is the degree to which his mental processes are alienated from reality." Nathaniel Branden in Ayn Rands 'Capitalism The Unknown Ideal'
Mo
Posts: 12158
Incept: 2007-06-26
Silver
Pa.
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
All these guys are gonna end up in people's soup pots.

Fatten them up.

----------
Welcome to Pottersville
Argos
Posts: 6312
Incept: 2008-03-23
Gold
The Green Mountain State
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
As far a market guru comments go, this was easily the biggest story yesterday:

"I think . . . that we're reaching a point where, unfortunately, additional stimulus may have negative, as opposed to positive, effects, and that Chairman Bernanke is speaking to that . . ."

That was Bill Gross in a BB Radio interview, conducted after the jobs numbers release:

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/93803515-....

We might ask why neither BB nor CNBC (nor Zero Hedge, for that matter) ran this comment at all, never mind as a headline, or why it was overlooked in the BB article that recapped the interview in which it was delivered.
Bozonian
Posts: 19881
Incept: 2007-09-01
Green
Saratoga Springs, New York
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
What Now?


----------
Forget about blaming, fighting with, or crediting other people. The only real challenge in life, is with yourself. -- Me

Everything I write is my opinion and not to be considered proven fact. Nothing I write should be considered financial advice.
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ