| User Info
| Claims: Swirling 'Da Bowl in forum [Market-Ticker]
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Jstanley01
Posts: 8182
Incept: 2008-07-30
San Antonio, Texas
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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum
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Trades50
Posts: 4215
Incept: 2007-10-30
Land of Tax and Spend
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A guest on CNBS said "mega-layoffs".
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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
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Tman2
Posts: 139
Incept: 2008-10-31
Illinois
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All is Good...The APPLE INDEX is up again...LOL
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Aztrader
Posts: 6649
Incept: 2007-09-10
Scottsdale, AZ
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Spoke to a friend that runs a company in Dallas. Yesterday, they started layoffs of about 26 employees which amounted to only $1.2mm in savings. He told me they need to get the number to $5 million in savings. Doing the math, this could be 15% of his workforce.
The lies and BS are coming out in the real economy. Without federal govt funds, the ponzi will collapse around us. Will they let it happen or save it until after the election..................
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Erica712
Posts: 1910
Incept: 2009-03-16
Central FL
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The interesting thing about this possible slowdown and uptick in layoffs is that most states have ended the federal extended UE benefit plan AND made cuts to their own programs. FL is down to 23 weeks of $275/ week max. Georgia is down to 20 weeks now.
So if you you lose your job now, you have to scramble to find something (at a time when another wave down is happening). We're going to see 1,000applicants for $8/hr jobs now, and a big jump in the "90+ days delinquent" mortgage category.
Foodstamps to the moon.
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Mannfm11
Posts: 3544
Incept: 2009-02-28
DFW, Tx
Online
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There goes the housing recovery. Maybe I missed last week, but wasn't it revised upward from 360 something? The ADP number smells in light of everything going on. I'm sure Obama needs some campaign fodder so we will probably see an exaggerated seasonal adjustment in the number this week. Demand in Europe and China is going to rip the ass out of everything.
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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
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Colk55
Posts: 2421
Incept: 2010-02-11
Indiana
Online
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I held off commenting the last couple of weeks because I didn't see anything in the numbers that was significant compared to past years but yeah, this could be a sign of trouble. I took the latest claims chart and it shows that the kind of numbers we've been seeing are consistent with either continuing recovery, stagnant recovery or nearing recession. This chart uses monthly average claims. Even though these are NSA claims, I used the 350K "Sweet spot" as the dividing line. The red areas are recession level claims, the blue areas are normal ranges for claims spikes, the green areas are recoveries/booms, the small orange areas represent periods where claims are neither here nor there. The boxes are the years I've been comparing to this year's numbers('04 and '08), with 2001 thrown in since the pattern was similar.  I'm not suggesting it's definitive by any means but 2 out of the 3 times that the numbers have been in this range have been before recessions.
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The politician's motto: If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bull****.
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