RIMM: Facebook Takeover Target?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-05-29 14:50
by Karl Denninger
in Company Specific
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RIMM: Facebook Takeover Target?
 

The "pump of the day" rumor was that Facebook might buy RIMM to "get a smartphone."

Does this pass the sniff test?

Maybe.

Here's why it might make some sense.

If you've used the Playbook you know about the browser.  It simply is the best-of-breed in the tablet marketplace -- period.  It has flash integration (Apple does not) and in addition it has everything else working too.  The experience is very much like a desktop -- and it's the only tablet that is.

That same browser will be in the BB10 phones.

And it matters.

A lot.

The other speculative target around is Opera.  Eh, maybe.  Opera is highly-optimized on mobiles to reduce traffic, which is good.  But it's not the Playbook browser.

So that's the argument, to be basic about it.

Now on to the other side of the coin, and why I don't buy it.

Simply put, security.  RIMM has it and nobody else does.  And I can't imagine RIMM's enterprise and government customers putting up with the idea of Facebook acquiring RIMM and getting its hooks into the quite-secure world of RIMM's email and devices.

Were Facebook to do this they'd flush the government and big business customer down the toilet.  Basically, they'd be buying the technology and putting a zero value on the customers.

At today's price RIMM has a $5.7 billion market cap.  Figure they'd bid $7.5 - $10, perhaps toward the top to try to make it a knock-out that would get quick approval from the board (lest the shareholders lynch the board members.)

$10 billion for a browser, QNX and the incoming device stream? 

That's doesn't look attractive to me at all, so I ring the gong on this one.

The wildcard: Zuckerberg.  Would he do it simply because now he's got a currency to spend and he can swing it around?  I don't know -- he is an arrogant ass. But if he does I'd be inclined to short Facebook hard, even here.

Disclosure: The author plays in RIMM and hasn't been able to get a borrow on Faceplant -- unfortunately.

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User Info RIMM: Facebook Takeover Target? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Matt_bear
Posts: 6364
Incept: 2008-07-15
Gold
a week early on spy puts
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facebook puts?

December 20's are at 1.45/1.55 currently.

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In terms of real-world fundamentals, I expect that most of the people around me, whom I work with day to day, and whom I pass on the street ... will be dead within five years.
Raggededge
Posts: 34
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Green
Springfield, TN
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This would finally make me quit being a Blackberry user.
Musicandnature
Posts: 1955
Incept: 2007-12-05
Gold
NJ
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I don't know Matt, now that there are fb puts, me wonders if they will rally fb after "the peasants" buy enough of them ?

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Since it costs a lot to win, and even more to lose, You and me bound to spend some time wonder'n what to choose. Goes to show, you don't ever know, watch each card you play and play it slow...Wait until that deal come round, don't you let that deal go down, no no. Garcia/Hunter.
Aethor
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RIMM has real business, and with all their mistakes, they produce a lot more useful things than Facebook. In fact, FB revenue is ~4B, RIMM revenue is ~18.44B.

How in the retarded f***k could FB buy RIMM? Only in a world where you can write a bazillion little pieces of paper (or just electrons), and say that each of them is worth $38.50 (although there is no guarantee behind it, nor will any of those pieces of paper give its owner any income), and have enough people fall for it. (And the government doesn't call it a ponzi schema and doesn't stop it)

Even if the price drops under $30, you still got a ton of money for nothing.

Then use that money to buy real business.

The problem is that the individuals who do it may prosper, but the world that allows that to happen, that rewards fluff more than actual products, will destroy itself in the long run.

Jimg
Posts: 180
Incept: 2009-02-04
Green
Dunedin, FL
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Zuckerberg needs to use some of that ethereal market cap to buy some real assets while it lasts. Like AOL did with Time Warner. That worked out well. Oh, wait. Well, the thought process was sound.
Eighty6thebs
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Incept: 2007-06-26
Green
It's contained to sub-prime!
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It's a NO on my sniff test. Many in a long liine of rumors you'll see to try and rally this bitch closer to the IPO price so the people that bought all the shares "supporting" higher levels can get out.

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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine

"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister

Matt_bear
Posts: 6364
Incept: 2008-07-15
Gold
a week early on spy puts
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is it 30 or 60 days before they can sell?

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In terms of real-world fundamentals, I expect that most of the people around me, whom I work with day to day, and whom I pass on the street ... will be dead within five years.
Themortgagedude
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saint louis
Online
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What if FB just licenses the technology? Somewhat of a joint venture on the phone and tablet.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Ribbit
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Wales, UK
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The tie up with RIMM that makes a lot of sense to me (I could well be wrong I freely admit), is Google acquiring it, and partnering it up with Motorola.

If I was Google though, I'd possibly wait for FB to completely screw the pooch with RIMM (they will if they get it), and get RIMM and FB together for a lot less than they would have to pay now for RIMM.

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If the State was a Nanny, it would have been fired for incompetence, unreliability, and having its hands in the till, a very long time ago now.
Antone
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Seditionia, USSA
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How about just shorting RIMM to zero? Down another 8% in the AH, almost as much as their **** buddies FB lost during the day.

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As if anything has changed:

Wir sind gefickt.
Throxxofvron
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Hyper-Speculative Psycho-Facsistic Parabolic Blow-Off
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http://tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-w....


Matt_bear wrote..
is it 30 or 60 days before they can sell?


You are ****ing kidding, right?

-Zuckerberg sold 30.2 Million Shares of FaceBoink for $932.6 Million on 5/22/2012:

http://investing.money.msn.com/investmen....

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DIONYSUS: " Thou hast no knowledge of the life thou art leading; thy very existence is now a mystery to thee. " -from 'The Bacchantes' By Euripides “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” -George Orwell

Eighty6thebs
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Incept: 2007-06-26
Green
It's contained to sub-prime!
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As they say..."sold to you"

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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine

"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
Jubber
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Gold
UK
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According to JP Morgan, the acquisition of Research of Motion (RIMM) is beginning to make sense for Microsoft (MSFT)

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“The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher
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