Advice To Europeans: Get Your Money Now
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-05-25 10:01
by Karl Denninger
in International
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Advice To Europeans: Get Your Money Now
 

Let's get right down to it.

The European governments are not going to do the right thing, as I noted they must in my earlier post.  They're going to continue to play games with your life and futures, promising things they know they cannot deliver.

In the meantime they are meeting right now -- I'm sure of it -- to design a new currency system in which you will take it in the ass.

There is only one defense you can enact as an individual to this - get your money out of there and do it now, moving it somewhere safer.

I don't think this is the "long weekend" where you'll get screwed, but I don't know that for certain. 

What I do know for certain is that your government will not tell you when it is about to bone you in the butt, and that is about to happen.

If Greece leaves, and I expect they will, the odds are high that the entire Euro will fracture and as this happens your deposits and other financial instruments denominated in Euros will be converted to the new local currency and then immediately devalued, stealing anywhere from a few percent to half or more of every Euro you have.

Therefore you either act preemptively or you go to the store, buy a big jar of Vasoline and hunt around outside for a nice stick to insert between your teeth -- because you will soon need both.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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Yaldor
Posts: 2687
Incept: 2008-05-17

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Is this the end game ?

I have not changed my signature since 2009. I wonder how long will it remain true. I truly don't have any idea. They might be able to stretch far more than we think
(I have said the same thing about the chart of GDP VS Debt and so far they are able to pull it through)

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For every crash the probability of someone showing that he predicted it is near 1 .

For every prediction of an imminent crash the probability of it being correct is almost zero

Avianphlu
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Ulster NY
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what would the physical euro be worth? would they convert 1 to 1 inside your electronic accounts to local currency? this would be a hell of an event.
Genesis
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Yes, they would convert at 1:1 into local currency in your accounts, then issue. You take it straight up the poop chute.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Anti
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And if Euro is defunct, then it seems like they would dream up a scheme to reduce the value of paper ones as well.

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Bluebird
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If a person has withdrawn lots of Euros to physically hide in their house, will those be converted to the new currency? Or could those Euros be confiscated because a person withdrew too much.

In other words, if a person took all those physical Euros in his house, to be converted to the new currency, would the bank (government?) consider them illegal or stolen or received from a drug deal?
Avianphlu
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Ulster NY
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so whatever physical euros you have at home, they would open a redemption window at par value or lose it?
Jotapay
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Hedge funds buying up farmland would have been an excellent strategy for them in this case.
Genesis
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Ulster -- the nice thing about physical Euros is that so long as the EU retains the free right of travel and association you can go where the exchange would be most-favorable and turn it into "Whatever" (e.g. Marks, etc)

This is not a long-term strategy, obviously - - it's a move in an attempt to prevent a forced devaluation without notice. You may fail with this strategy but it beats doing nothing.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Asimov
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Karl: Remember the border controls that have popped up all over the EU recently.

That may be part of the reason.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Anti
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BTW when the US called in its silver certificates, there was an announced date, bring in your certificates by then and get silver, after that they are not redeemable. So if you have any now, they are only as good as FRNs. That made it all nice and legal-like.

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Health is better than health insurance
http://gerson.org/
Over the past 60 years, thousands of people have used the Gerson Therapy to recover from so-called “incurable” diseases such as cancer, diabetes, heart disease and arthritis.
Striker754
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If I had physical (or any) Euros, I'd be converting to pounds or dollars asap and keep only the minimum necessary in Euros.
Ilyachern
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Anyone worried about that event should buy gold immediately. Not for speculation just to preserve their purchasing power.

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Mayorquimby
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Anyone who thinks gold preserves purchasing power should seek professional help.

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Jotapay
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Quote:
Anyone worried about that event should buy gold immediately. Not for speculation just to preserve their purchasing power.


That's not exactly a panacea. Nigga still gotta eat. And pay the tax on any PM transactions.
Sean
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Incept: 2009-04-21

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Quote:
Let's get right down to it.

The European and American governments are not going to do the right thing, as I noted they must in my earlier post. They're going to continue to play games with your life and futures, promising things they know they cannot deliver.


Fixed.


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* I think Ann Barnhardt is more and more right. God help us!
* Progressives / Marxists / Communists are many things, STUPID and IMPATIENT are not two of them.
* A hot civil war is coming.
* And people wonder why I prep!

Landshark
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Would this not be prudent advice for us here in the US as well? How many US banks are in swap agreements with European financial institutions? Once the balance sheets start blowing up like ammo in a burning tank, it stands to reason that it would begin impacting US banks almost immediately.

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Peterm99
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Gen -

Wouldn't all this depend on which country we're talking about?

Specifically, if this happened in Greece, forcible conversion to Drachma would bone the Greeks. However, if this happened in Germany, wouldn't the Germans who were forcibly converted to DMs see essentially zero deleterious impact, and possibly a highly positive impact were they then to travel to other former Eurozone states and spend their DMs?

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". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwell’s imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed
Genesis
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Yes, but the problem is that Germany wants a soft exchange rate for exports. Therefore there's no telling what Merkel would attempt.

The point here is to preserve personal optionality.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Wineaux
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What wine goes with unemployment?
Phev
Posts: 440
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250.000 € of savings in two of our banks...
175.000 € in cash...
I will tell you how I feel after they go "Poof... It's gone..."

We have election here in June [france], the equivalent of your congress...
It is going to be a little tricky if there is blood on the walls.

NB : "the odds are very high..." The word "odd" also means chance, probability in english ? No reference of that meaning in my english dictionary... Sorry for asking...

Phev
Posts: 440
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"You may fail with this strategy but it beats doing nothing"

It is my stategy... I don't run rat's race.
Nothing to do with my character, I firmly believe every class of asset, even foreing currency is doomed ... We are ****ed !
For me cash [and so for me €] is the only thing you can redeem debt with... [issued in €] so it would keep some value... But I might be very very wrong ;-)

Kajet
Posts: 30
Incept: 2011-11-13

Warsaw, Poland
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I am in Europe but, thankfully, outside the eurozone. The fact that my savings are in an emerging market currency is a wholly different matter...

A question though: should I close my futures position for the weekend? I have a short in the Polish stock index to hedge my portfolio. I wouldn't mind a big downward gap but what if the market goes crazily to the upside?

Reason: tags
Asimov
Posts: 104047
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Gold
East Tennessee Eastern Time
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Phev: Yes, "odds" in english also refers to the chance of something happening (probability.)

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Rdaniels
Posts: 444
Incept: 2007-11-30
Green
Purgatory
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Quote:
Anyone who thinks gold preserves purchasing power should seek professional help.


I need professional help. I just can't get beyond that 5000 years of human history thing.

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I wouldn't be so pessimistic if it wasn't so hopeless.
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