Claims: Meh (Again) in [Market-Ticker]

Posted 2012-05-24 08:37
by Karl Denninger
in Employment

Claims: Meh (Again)

In the week ending May 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 370,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 372,000. The 4-week moving average was 370,000, a decrease of 5,500 from the previous week's revised average of 375,500.

I'm not impressed; this is basically a zero (either way.)

The big table, however, continues to show declines.

Next week's employment report should be quite interesting; my present expectations are for +100k, but are likely to move somewhat given next week's data stream. That's well below consensus incidentally..... and is subject to my usual error band (+/- 50)

Discussion below (registration required to post)

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User Info	Claims: Meh (Again) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Digitlman Posts: 335 Incept: 2011-03-04	2k? Why, that seems to be the exact number that was revised from last week! It's fun to fudge numbers! 2012-05-24 08:48:27 Permalink
Dazedncornfused Posts: 313 Incept: 2010-10-13	These weekly unemployment numbers are just sports scores. How many are actually remitting to the IRS and state taxing authorities? I've seen numbers that range from 150 to 128 million. What is it really? And just how many are originating revenue, that is, not recycling tax dollars ie schoolteachers gov't employees earned income scammers etal? Did I get myself another off-topic? Woohoo. ---------- Stand up and be counted or line up and be numbered. 2012-05-24 09:12:58 Permalink
Standby Posts: 1005 Incept: 2009-08-06	Maybe all this no change just means we've reached terminal velocity (in employment decline). Maybe there's a theoretical model that explains all this. 2012-05-24 14:42:40 Permalink