JPM: Watch The Duplicity!
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-05-21 09:55
by Karl Denninger
in Company Specific
Ignore this thread
JPM: Watch The Duplicity!
 

Off the wires this morning, JP Morgan says it is "suspending" its share repurchase program.

Now let's look at this chart.

If there's nothing wrong with the company wouldn't you rather buy your own shares back at $33 than $44?  You get far more of them for the same amount of money, right?

Who doesn't love a sale, provided, that is, nothing else is going wrong that might require you to have the money available for other purposes.

There isn't anything going wrong, is there Jamie?

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info JPM: Watch The Duplicity! in forum [Market-Ticker]
Rvacha
Posts: 8295
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Cleveland
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Yeah, but Dimon says this isn't related to the CIO loss(es). I believe him /sarc

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"I suggest you panic." - Hugh Hendry
Leicestersq
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UK
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Is the JPMorgue in real trouble here?
Randy123
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Earth
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Best in Bleed

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China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Drench
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CNBC: Dimon says it's to boost capital for Basel III
Grumpy_bear
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More SRS please Mistress!
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I always thought that parasitic companies like JPM do their stock buybacks in sync with insider selling at target price ranges to allow them to dump into the buyback. The price has now fallen below the level for significant kleptocratic benefit, thus the removal of the stock buyback. Or, it could be both: "We don't want to sell now AND we need the money!"

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Denninger, Karl. Leverage: how cheap money will destroy the world. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2012. p. 126, par. 3.
Stonedog
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New Jersey
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Remember - share repurchase programs are primarily designed to help insiders and acts as a floor on the stock price (and actually a tremendous waste of cash). You only cut the share reprchase program if the company needs cash. I'd say they're in trouble but it may not be fatal - yet...

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"I would characterize my professional disdain as more of a professional contempt for their [Central Banker, Banker and politician] economic and financial policies, priorities, presumptions and prescriptions." - Lauren Lyster on Capital Account for Friday June 16, 2012

"All the stimulus, the bailouts, the quantit
Frat
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Am I an ******* for actually hoping that JPM is in deep ****, and this is just the beginning of a monster ****storm?

Should I care if it does mean that? Because.... I just ****ing DON'T care, and I hope those ****ers are so deep in it that their eyeballs are stained a permanent brown.

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We're ****ed. Where's Henry Bowman when you need him?
Themortgagedude
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saint louis
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Couldn't happen to a nicer guy than Jamie. **** him and the horse he rode in on.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Rodergate
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But Oblahblah said he was one of the smartest, bestest, brightest,... bankers around

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Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.
Wineaux
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If I understand this correctly, all of the bets in question were placed at the CIO office in London which means that any regulation passed in the US (i.e. the Volker rule) would be not applicable. As a matter of fact this would mean that even though JPM is an American corporation it does not hold any allegiance to the USA because of its multinational operations. It does not have to operate in America’s best interest.

I am still for cutting away and burning the entire safety net these TBTF banks enjoy. It’s mission impossible to expect CONgress and the regulators to police these criminals and about time for every day depositors to start a grassroots movement to starve the beast and publicly shame these institutions.

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What wine goes with unemployment?
Muscleknight
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The Buffet Buzzard is probably sitting in his bath tub right now thinking I gotta get me some JPM.

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Theox
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Frat- You're not an ******* for hoping JPM goes*****-up but it does make you a terrorist.
Themortgagedude
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saint louis
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Wino - very simply the bank if it chooses to do business in this country with a Federal charter it could be required to operate in all locations around the world under any laws we choose here. Otherwise we pull their charter.

Chance of anyone having balls enough to do this? .001% or lower.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Nejla
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The number being bandied about now is closer to a range of $6 billion to $7 billion, according to several people working on trading desks that specialize in the derivatives JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) used to make its trades and from two sources with knowledge of the bank's positions.


http://money.cnn.com/2012/05/18/markets/....

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Genesis
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smiley

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What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Asimov
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Yup, still a ways to go :P

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If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Frat
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$2 billion is starting to sound a whole lot better now, ain't it Jamie?


Who wants to get the pool going? Can we do the redneck version where if the cow ****s in your square, you win? Sounds like JPM to me.

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We're ****ed. Where's Henry Bowman when you need him?
Tallystick
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Will exiting their position move markets to negatively affect other positions JPM has?
Mannfm11
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The share buyback is about driving the price up and providing market for insiders to sell. I would say that if a company was legitimate and trading below book, it might make sense to buy back stock. In the case of a bank, which is always insolvent, it has other purposes. My guess is Dimon don't want to sell at these prices so why provide the market? Remember, it is a tiny loss for a monster like JPM. I recall MER lost $1 billion in MBS's in 1987. JPM would probably have to lose $25 billion today to equate.

This begs the question, what is the trade? I have read various accounts. The account I haven't read is how many trades are haywire? JPM has lost about 25% of its value here, a figure of $40 billion roughly. $40 billion doesn't equal $2 or $5 or $7 billion. It is trading below book, that is if book is legit.

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Genesis
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The market doesn't think it is...

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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