My God, Common Sense Showing In Europe?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-05-15 16:06
by Karl Denninger
in International
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My God, Common Sense Showing In Europe?
 

Wow....

Denial is leading to collective economic suicide in Europe and the United States. The French elected a socialist president who wants to raise taxes on those elusive rich and keep spending as if there is no tomorrow.

Many on the left, including European socialists in tandem with the New York Times and its economist Paul Krugman, are falsely claiming that Europe and even the United States are being saddled with "austerity." Their claim is that governments are not spending enough to reduce unemployment. They want higher taxes on the most productive plus bigger government.

They all suffer from a collective memory loss. Don't they remember that socialism did not work? Every time the big-government "solution" has been tried for the past two centuries, it has failed, but those on the left seem to be incapable of learning.

When the current economic crisis began -- largely caused by a government-created housing bubble -- we were told that if the government spent an extra trillion dollars or so and ran up the deficit, all would be well. Did it work as advertised in the United States? No. In the United Kingdom? No. In France? No. In Italy? No. In Spain? No. And not even the left wants to talk about Greece.

The chart below shows that rather than the austerity the left is whining about, government spending has risen as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) in all of the major economies.

Yep.

What's being missed here (the author appears not to understand it) is that this is a function of basic mathematics.  That is, a matter of the denominator -- the amount of money and credit in the system.

GDP / ( (Money + Credit) * Velocity ) = 1

It must!

Therefore if "Money + Credit" increases and Velocity is mostly-constant each unit of GDP requires more units of money and/or credit to buy, which means your salaries, savings and assets are worth less.

That's it folks.  It really is that simple.

There is no evading this fact.  When you pull this crap something goes up in price.  In this case what's gone up in price is financial assets (e.g. stocks.)  Last time it was that (some) and houses (a lot.)  Before that it was tech stocks (a monstrous amount.)

The common person got screwed through all three of them, especially the last two, as neither of those had any benefit to the common person in terms of earnings and jobs.

This must stop and the longer governments keep this crap up the worse it will get.

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Anti
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I think you need a [ right after the / and a ] right after velocity - that is you want everything after the / in the denominator, right?

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Genesis
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Better?

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Anti
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yes - TY

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Health is better than health insurance
http://gerson.org/
Over the past 60 years, thousands of people have used the Gerson Therapy to recover from so-called “incurable” diseases such as cancer, diabetes, heart disease and arthritis.
Crzymorse
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In fairness to Krugman, he did say the stimulus was woefully inadequate.

Also raising taxes on the unproductive rich (wall street) shouldn't be out of the question. Without $1T + in deficit spending every year (mainly medicare) there sure as hell wouldn't be that many rich doctors/health insurance execs out there either. The premise that all the rich are producers and shouldn't be taxed at a higher rate is bull****.

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The rich don't make enough to matter.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Donethat
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I still want that Athenian with the swimming pool to pay back property taxes, along with that Greek Dentist doing business in cash.
Xkn
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"...My God, Common Sense Showing In Europe?..."

No Karl, this is common sense showing on the Brussels Journal where common sense
has been showing for a long time. Unfortunately Brussels Journal does not reflect what IS happening in EU, where doubling-down on Marxism is the chosen current path.
When the free s... crowd is well established and numerous, as it is in EU, question is not would you rather have a job or be on a welfare, rather it is would you rather have a welfare or loose it? Inevitably, the politician who asks the second question wins.
Grashopa
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Quote:

The premise that all the rich are producers and shouldn't be taxed at a higher rate is bull****.


Take all their money today and you don't close the deficit - that is we don't even get one year of borrowing. Your post makes no sense in regards to reality - who the hell would even think about hitting up their boss for a few extra pennies when they are spending twice their salary. And they already pay all the taxes anyway, why would you want them to pay more?

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Gates
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Yep - strip the rich of ALL their wealth - ALL of it and you get less than ONE year of deficit spending - what happens year two?
Peterm99
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Crzymorse wrote..
. . . raising taxes on the unproductive rich (wall street) shouldn't be out of the question.
Can you see no fundamentally fatal flaw in your premise of some gov't entity making a determination of whether you are productively or unproductively rich and basing your tax rates on that determination?

Even though sometimes their productive vs. unproductive calls make some sort of sense (e.g., short-term vs. long-term capital gains), recall that this is a gov't that classifies fast food joints as manufacturers, thinks that the pre-08 FIRE economy was just wonderful, that continued (and increasing) gov't deficit spending is positive for the nation, that gov't needs to encourage moral hazard for all sorts activities, and that gov't employees as a class are hard-working and productive, to mention just a few of their oh-so-wise (sarc) judgements.

Were your concept adopted generally, I expect that the main criterion would result in "productive vs. non-productive" assessments that were strongly (if not perfectly) correlated with financial political support. In other words, not too different from what we already have in terms of tax structure.

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". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwell’s imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed
Smacktle
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We need Robin Hood!

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Degaston
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Gen, you wrote "what's gone up in price .... houses (a lot) Before that it was tech stocks (a monstrous amount.)"

I think on houses you ahould've written "home equity (a widespread monstrous amount)" instead of "houses (a lot)" as it wasn't the change in home prices but the change in highly-leveraged home equity that caused the real problem with real estate. I'm sure you knew this having written a book on leverage. Perhaps you should write a sequel called "De-Leverage" on the aftermath and real solutions to get us through the mid-term crisis we're going to have in many places around the world and which we could possibly avoid here in the USA if by some miracle we (a) see massive corrections overseas, (b) we get the news out to J6P via YouTubes/etc where they see real people suffering bad due to the "Leverage" lessons not learned, (c) as a result the politicians here in the USA actually learn in time and they are thus able to reduce the risks and shorten the pain long-term by actually doing the right thing because the educated electorate forces them to learn.

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Macsimcon
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So, if raising taxes on the wealthy won't entirely solve our problem, we shouldn't do it at all?

Some of this country's greatest growth occurred when the top marginal tax rate was over 90%. I'm not suggesting we return to that, but there has to be some middle ground between here and there.

Why not raise taxes on the top 1%, cut defense spending, eliminate Medicare Part D, end the war, remove the FICA cap, make modest cuts in Social Security benefits, close corporate loopholes (looking at you, Apple/Google/Cisco) and institute Medicare for all? Why not force the banksters to pay restitution or claw back some of that money?

In that scenario, pharmaceutical companies and device manufacturers can't charge whatever they want, they have to charge what the government will reimburse them for. It sucks for those industries, but perhaps they should've spent a little more time working on cancer cures, and less time on erectile dysfunction and restless leg pills.

As far as the free s*** crowd goes, nobody ever mentions Germany. They're somewhat socialist, and yet they're doing OK. Their mistake was loaning out so much money to countries which can't possibly repay them. You can't compare the fate of Europe with the fate of the United States, because individual European countries no longer control their own currency as the U.S. does.

Yes, we've had some inflation in the last four years, but it's hardly the hyperinflation the Peter Schiffs of the world warned us about.

Nobody (not even Paul Krugman) is suggesting stimulus packages forever. You do a few massive ones (>$1T) to get things going, and then once the economy is in recovery, tax revenues begin to increase. Karl is obviously right: you can't keep spending more than you bring in forever. But in a sovereign nation, you CAN do that temporarily to prop things up until the country is back on its feet.

But it has to be done right. You can't pass a stimulus package, then hire people to build a bridge using steel from China. You don't want to hire people to fix a freeway, and then have them take their pay and spend it at Walmart. If we're going to stimulate, we have to keep the money here as much as possible.
Peterm99
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Macsimcon wrote..
. . . you can't keep spending more than you bring in forever. . . you CAN do that temporarily . . .
Temporarily, like for the past 40 or more years.

It's always "We'll fix things tomorrow", but tomorrow's always a day away. (Apologies to Annie.)

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". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwell’s imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed
Grashopa
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Quote:

Some of this country's greatest growth occurred when the top marginal tax rate was over 90%.


Haha what?

Quote:

I'm not suggesting we return to that, but there has to be some middle ground between here and there.


Why? What middle ground? Where are you going?

Quote:

Nobody (not even Paul Krugman) is suggesting stimulus packages forever. You do a few massive ones (>$1T) to get things going, and then once the economy is in recovery, tax revenues begin to increase. Karl is obviously right: you can't keep spending more than you bring in forever. But in a sovereign nation, you CAN do that temporarily to prop things up until the country is back on its feet.


Why?

Quote:

But it has to be done right. You can't pass a stimulus package, then hire people to build a bridge using steel from China. You don't want to hire people to fix a freeway, and then have them take their pay and spend it at Walmart. If we're going to stimulate, we have to keep the money here as much as possible.


Exactly. Giving the money to the government to spend is the wrong thing to do. You aren't God and can't magically make the government not steal the money.

Remember taxes are theft. You need to reach a pretty high bar to justify stealing from me. And saying that we must stimulate is nonsense. If you take the dollar from me all you have done is change who spends it (theft). Do you even know why unemployment is high right now? I'll give you a hint - government already stimulated the economy for many years now blowing bubbles. WHY DO WE CALL IT A BUBBLE?

Because it is unsustainable. Saying we need stimulus is freaking hilarious to anyone who actually works in the economy. What is the point? We are in this situation BECAUSE of stimulus - your ideas have so ****ed up the economy because they aren't sustainable. What is the point of throwing a trillion dollars out in welfare and then taking it away in 5 years. Or is it going to be 10? All you've done is continue blowing unsustainable bubbles.

Do you seriously think all the people who are living off the extra 1 TRILLION A YEAR Obama is spending are going to survive when it stops? Has he primed the ****ing pump? What pump?! Which ones of those people has a sustainable job? How many families have been ruined by your freaking ideas? What are they going to do without your benevolent theft???



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Wis/min
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Quote:
Some of this country's greatest growth occurred when the top marginal tax rate was over 90%.
And how many were actually dumb enough to pay it?

Do you really think anyone did? Why?

Grashopa
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Here let me explain capitalism to you:

Its called private ownership of capital. I spend my money because it is mine. People make things for me so that I CHOOSE to give them my money. Their job is sustainable because my job is sustainable because we are all making things people want or need. That is freedom and works freaking great thank you!

That is sustainable. The Great Depression and what we are going through now is because of government printing of money through the inflation of the money supply. Through government created unsustainable bubbles. Remove the government and system by definition is stable.

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Theft is evil
Mo
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I think the unspoken slogan of every leftist, including Krugman is : Gibs me free **** or gibs me death'.

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Uwe
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wrote..
As far as the free s*** crowd goes, nobody ever mentions Germany. They're somewhat socialist, and yet they're doing OK.

Let's have a look at the chart in the article that KD referenced:
inline

Notice that Germany's government spending as a percent of GDP has increased the least over the last 5 years?

Germany: 1.6% of GDP.
Italy: 2.5%
Spain 2.8%
France 3.2%
USA: 3.3%
UK: 5.0%

In addition Germany's government deficit never exceeded 4.3% of GDP, and is currently down to 1% of GDP:



Here's that same chart for the US:



The UK:



France:



Spain:



And just for laughs, Greece:



The Germans look downright frugal compared to everyone else. Maybe we should talk about "Frugality" instead of "Austerity". smiley

-Uwe-

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“Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience.” - John Locke
Phxkevin
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To echo the thought from yesterday, I wish we had a -1 button, especially for those that don't cite their sources or clearly express something as opinion.

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Congress persons are all the same, republican or democrat, conservative or liberal. They talk a good game, but the results (or lack thereof) show something different.
Nanna
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IMO the majority believe that if the majority believe, that belief becomes reality.

There's some truth in that.

That said, when the mythological structures of religion and finance fall, there truly will be Hell to be paid.

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"There are fluctuations in the market that don't mean anything."Ira Gluskin, February 14, 2012
Donethat
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Bubbles and Ponzis require a printing press to print derivatives, future value pieces of paper.

The "Government" could stone cold catatonic, and there would still be bubbles and Ponzis anytime a pyramid scheme got going, read Great Depression, Tulip bubble, South Seas stock bubble, Mississippi Company stock bubble.

The current great financial crisis which appears to me to be headed for harder times than the Great Depression, has had futures and debt created by private parties to the tune of the 9.8 Trillion mortgage debt, the 13.5 Trillion financial sector debt, 11.6 Trillion business debt, etc.
Since 2005 Mortgage debt increased 1.5 Trillion, Business debt 3.6 Trillion,
financial 1.4 Trillion and Federal 5.9 Trillion ( not including intergovernmental)

That does not include foreign or off the books futures papers such as derivatives etc, nor is the bank owned FRB debt slave inflation scam required for a bubble.

Krugman is fighting an idealized demand supply inventory build up recession, when he should have studied Minsky and understood that the entire Eurosphere and US have been captured by the Bankster debt slave aliens.

The only thing going down in Ireland, Greece, Spain and the US to come is the renigging on massive amounts of debt, aliens or banksters not withstanding.
Phxkevin
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Adding to Donethat's bad news about exposure

Derivative exposure is around $230 trillion for the nine biggest banks. Who knows if that really is a problem, but the numbers are unreal...
http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa....

Plus another $100 trillion (source above) in US unfunded liabilities.

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Congress persons are all the same, republican or democrat, conservative or liberal. They talk a good game, but the results (or lack thereof) show something different.

Macsimcon
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This is from the Financial Times, not the New York Times:

"Krugman’s basic argument runs like this. Millions of unemployed are suffering at terrible social cost in the US because the economy lacks demand. The government can create demand by spending; the Fed can create demand by cutting interest rates. There is minimal reason to fear that more spending will cause a debt crisis in the US. Therefore, the authorities should get on with it already, and end this depression now.

You can argue otherwise, and some economists do, but most evidence from the last few years suggests that Krugman is basically right. If high unemployment was structural then inflation would have started to go up by now. US Treasury bond yields have gone down even as US debt has risen. A preponderance of studies show that, when interest rates are stuck at zero, government spending has a large effect on the economy."

I argued for stimulus right now because it's exactly what we need, and a majority of economists agree. They don't agree because they're Keynesians, they agree because the Austrians haven't been right. The austerity tried here (Obama cutting over 600,000 federal jobs) and in Europe hasn't turned things around.

I don't want to pay higher taxes, but if we don't keep our economy growing, then I can't hire more employees, and I can't pay more in taxes, and we will just have more problems in the years to come due to revenue shortfalls. And just so you don't think I'm insincere, I also want the economy to grow so more customers need our services, and I make more money.

I do not see taxes as theft, I see them as my payment for living in a society where we have free primary education, and Medicare, and Social Security. I don't know what you do for a living, but I run a consulting company, and I need educated employees for them to have value to my business.

And while we're on the subject, how was it that government created the dot-com and real estate bubbles? Nobody forced people to buy stock in companies with no earnings, and nobody forced banks to lobby to remove Glass Steagall. They were motivated by their own greed to do that, so they could dramatically increase their leverage to dangerous levels.

Just because government makes jumping off a cliff seem attractive doesn't mean you have to do it.
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