I suppose I should be impressed by seasonal adjustments, right?
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $408.0 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month and 6.4 percent (±0.7%) above April 2011. Total sales for the February through April 2012 period were up 6.6 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The February to March 2012 percent change was revised from 0.8 percent (±0.5) to 0.7 percent (±0.3%).
I'm supposed to be impressed, right? Ok, let's look at the internals and see if they reflect it.
Yah.
Drops in unadjusted numbers were seen in autos, furniture, electronics, food, helath, clothing, sporting goods, general merchandise, miscellaneous and non-store retailers along with restaurants and bars. In short, pretty much everything except for building materials and gas, which was pretty-much flat.
I know, I know, April typically has fairly sizeable seasonal adjustments, but look at autos -- the decrease unadjusted was 10% this month, roughly (March -> April.) Last year it was down 8.2%. But the adjusted number this month was reported as up 0.3%, and last year, same month, and last year it was reported as down 0.32%.
Yes, it really is that blatant and it's not just cars -- in some other places it's even worse!
Electronics: Unadjusted, down 11.1% monthly. Last year, down 10.8%. Adjusted, reported as up 0.26% this month, last year reported as down 1.9%.
Intentionally cooked data to make the economy look better than it really is?
You decide.
