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Christiangustafson
Posts: 4140
Incept: 2007-06-27
Helping Hand Acceptance Corporation
Banned
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A most excellent Ticker, Karl.
This is why the Fed shoots for "inflationary expectations" and not inflation. The MBS and CDO pyramid schemes reached a point of maximum credit expansion, debt as an asset taken to its logical conclusion. Student loans and .gov spending can't fill that hole.
The best we could do was tread water.
Deflation on aisle four!
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It is therefore, on opinion only that government is founded... -- Hume
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Avianphlu
Posts: 4121
Incept: 2008-12-03
Ulster NY
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I see the dollar looks much stronger this AM at the expense of commodities. Looks like weakness in the euro accounts for much of this. The bow of the titanic goes under raising the stern...gee the stern looks much safer ;)
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Vitchilo
Posts: 4978
Incept: 2011-04-27
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But but but my brother who's working for TD assures me that it's different in Canada...
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We hang the petty thieves and promote the great ones to office.
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Trades50
Posts: 4238
Incept: 2007-10-30
Land of Tax and Spend
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As Karl claimed, it's just a matter of time before the Euro is at parity with the dollar.
Had a discussion at length with a naive state legislator during the weekend that thinks keeping the stock market up and government sponsored jobs will keep the party going and the 8%/yr market return.
These Illinois legislators are going to rip everything else in the state apart to keep the unrealistic fat public pensions going.
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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
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Zarathustra
Posts: 6027
Incept: 2009-04-29
Funkytown
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Do you mean Greece (gulp) may not be SAVED?
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"And in knowing that you know nothing, that makes you the smartest of all." - Socrates
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Crzymorse
Posts: 1228
Incept: 2010-06-25
Maryland
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The EU needs a bigger bazooka. The EU is broke and should be trading well under the dollar. I'm pretty sure the euro is going to zero over the next decade.
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Zarathustra
Posts: 6027
Incept: 2009-04-29
Funkytown
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Bloomberg--"the level of funds in Greece’s state coffers has fallen below 1.5 billion euros ($1.9 billion), Imerisia reported, citing “reliable information.” If the state doesn’t receive predicted revenue for the rest of this month, it will find it difficult to pay for social services, pensions and public-sector wages, the newspaper said."
Translation: Cash-flow ALWAYS wins
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"And in knowing that you know nothing, that makes you the smartest of all." - Socrates
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Jslique
Posts: 472
Incept: 2008-07-28
Melbourne
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No No No
The ECB just has to print more money money printing solves everything. But come on none of this small stuff print some real big numbers that is all you have to do. Then talk Japan, UK, and USA to follow and if everyone is doing it then the status quo remains the same no inflation. Cause money printing is gonna work.
Sarcasm off
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Irishblues
Posts: 317
Incept: 2010-12-18
Wisconsin
Online
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... and it's all going to be a surprise to the masses, because "no one could have seen this coming."
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Jstanley01
Posts: 8263
Incept: 2008-07-30
San Antonio, Texas
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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum
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Leicestersq
Posts: 225
Incept: 2009-10-12
UK
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I am sure that Germany is sensible enough to realise that it is in everyone's best interests that time is called on the Euro. The sooner it is done, the less horrible it will be when it happens, but it isnt going to be nice. The only thing that is stopping them is everyone wants a scapegoat, and they dont want to be that scapegoat.
France could help them out here, and help themselves out at the same time. Francois Hollande is meeting Merkel, and he wont lose much political support I suspect if he is the one to call an end to the game, if he is brave enough to put up with two years of painful adjustment. When re-election times comes he could profit from being seen as a leader who is prepared to make difficult decisions in the best interests of France. If he were to make such a decision, Germany would 'reluctantly' have to leave the Euro as well. Keeping a straight face during that reluctance wont be easy.
Will Hollande be brave enough to do it though? Will he have had enough time to get his country ready for the change behind the scenes?
I suspect he isnt brave, nor has he had the foresight to get things ready. Hope I am proved wrong.
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Perramas
Posts: 54
Incept: 2011-01-24
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What would the benefits be for the first country to leave the Euro? What would be the downside to leaving the Euro?
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Assassination, Attack, Domestic security, Drill, Exercise, Cops, Law enforcement, Authorities, Disater assistance, Disaster management, DNDO, National prepardness, Mitigation, Prevention, Response, Recovery, Dirty bomb, Swat, Threat
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Rutben
Posts: 1416
Incept: 2007-07-27
Phoenix, AZ
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"(believe it or not, still) housing".....update from Phoenix. Spent Saturday helping a friend try to find a "bargain" near where she will be working and starting nursing school in Sept. Between the "buy and bailers" and out of state investors who have been told Phoenix is a "must own" value, believe they have created a temporary mini-bubble that will end badly in the fall when the buy and bailers default. Called between 5-10 listing agents, more out of curiosity after the second one had 14 offers (5 for cash) all above asking price. Another raised the price by $15,000 on the phone. We are delaying our search until the fall.
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Sean
Posts: 1789
Incept: 2009-04-21
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Yep. My friend put an offer of $520k on a North Scottsdale home three weeks ago and some investor put an offer of $580k and the appraisal came in at $420k.
He has since withdrawn his offer and will take our (my and other co-workers advice) and wait for a year or two more until the price is 1/2 of what it is now.
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* I think Ann Barnhardt is more and more right. God help us!
* Progressives / Marxists / Communists are many things, STUPID and IMPATIENT are not two of them.
* A hot civil war is coming.
* And people wonder why I prep!
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Harley
Posts: 19
Incept: 2011-09-22
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On the radio this morning I heard an ad for 100% mortgage financing or 90% cash back financing on a home you own. Guaranteed to close in 12 days.
Keep blowing, that bubble hasn't popped yet.
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Bagbalm
Posts: 4323
Incept: 2009-03-19
Just North of Detroit
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I have to get some uncirculated Euros for when they are collectibles.
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Curious1
Posts: 448
Incept: 2008-03-22
Oregon
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When, and how, will this occur? And why exactly does it have to occur? Not trying to be a jerk; I've just been amazed at how well they have been able to patch things together a little longer. A good friend who is very astute make the point "you can't plan for doomsday, and doomsday never happens anyway..." His point is that IF there is a collapse the nature of it will be next to impossible to predict thus the only real strategy is to minimize or eradicate personal debt and be strategically agile. He also believes as things unwind they will "blunt" the effects of it such that you won't feel a sudden collapse but a jerky descent into more economic turmoil.
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Frat
Posts: 1939
Incept: 2009-07-15
NKY
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Curious, look around - I think we're IN that jerky descent currently. No one wins a bet in the end of the world, as is pointed out here quite often, because..... "Even if you're 'right' in that bet, how do you collect (or from whom)?"
You're absolutely correct that all you can do is minimize your exposure and learn skills that might help in such an event. Owning/shooting firearms is one, gardening is another. I've done both these things since spring of 2008 (when I sensed **** might not always be as peachy as I hoped), and besides being useful, they're ENJOYABLE to boot.
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We're ****ed. Where's Henry Bowman when you need him?
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Mannfm11
Posts: 3608
Incept: 2009-02-28
DFW, Tx
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The confusion is everyone thinks it is the deposits that are loaned out instead of the result of what was loaned out. Some idiots call it electronic money. No, it is basically the same procedure as 200 years ago when bankers were lending out notes against money they were holding for other people. The scheme fails when a sizable number of people decide they want their money. If this occurred, the government would make it a crime to hoard your own money, as FDR did in 1933.
All that has to happen to stop inflation is stop increasing the money supply. Though there is another danger, the change in the desire to hold a currency. In the case of Greece, Spain and Italy, it might be money in their banks and in their country. In Germany, it might be the Euro. Loss of faith and the diminishment of desire to hold a currency is what creates hyperinflation. This is why the CB's around the world are in concert, shooting holes in their currency. Solvency issues are providing other ideas.
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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
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Ducarius
Posts: 129
Incept: 2010-08-25
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I saw a poll report on CNN (I think it was CNN) and the poll question was, what is the best way to get the economy growing again? Options were cut gov spending and cut taxes, raise gov spending and raise taxes or unsure/don't know. I realized we are really totally ****ed when it came out 56% say the best way to get the economy growing is to increase government spending and increase taxes. Cut spending and taxes was like 27%.
I wish we could go back to restricting voting to landholders only.
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Murf
Posts: 4486
Incept: 2007-08-28
MurfCon Warning Level: Arrogance II
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Gen wrote.. ...Mitt Romney who has the chops in the investment world to grok this, most-certainly does understand. Asked point blank in an interview if he would keep Bernanke, Romney replied, "I think I should have my own choice in that position." (paraphrased) That is about all he should say at this point. Of course, my choice would be Jim Grant, which would immediately cause a ****storm in financial markets. Karl, you'd be Treasury Sec'y. 
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The money has already been lost. Someone has to book it.
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Buck350
Posts: 1349
Incept: 2008-10-22
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Meanwhile, back in Ireland... http://www.irishtimes.com/topics/fiscal-....They will hold a national referendum on 5/31 to approve the new EU "fiscal treaty". If the No's prevail, it could magnify the impact of a Greek exit. Or the Irish might think Iceland's approach to recovery looks good to them too. A lot of Irishmen would love to tell the continental bankers to bugger off, despite the hardships that would follow. Many on the No side are openly portraying that vote as a finger in the eye of the rapacious foreigners and a blow for Irish sovereignity. It's obviously a bit more complicated than that, but those are powerfully resonant ideas on the Emerald Isle... This is something to watch closely, imho.
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I think Paulson and Bernanke knew early on that Wile E. Coyote had already run straight off the cliff, so they chose to focus on frantic efforts to slow his descent before J6P notices the "gravity" of what has happened, hoping that the proles won't panic telegenically on the way down.
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Swingtrader
Posts: 9108
Incept: 2007-08-12
United Oligarchic Goldman Sachs States of America
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mann wrote..If this occurred, the government would make it a crime to hoard your own money, as FDR did in 1933. Link to wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_O....Wikipedia wrote..Rationalization
The order was rationalized on the grounds that hard times had caused "hoarding" of gold, stalling economic growth and making the depression worse.[1] The New York Times, on April 6, 1933 p. 16, wrote under the headline "Hoarding of Gold", "The Executive Order issued by the President yesterday amplifies and particularizes his earlier warnings against hoarding. On March 6, taking advantage of a wartime statute that had not been repealed, he forbade the hoarding 'of gold or silver coin or bullion or currency,' under penalty of $10,000 and/or up to five to ten years imprisonment. I either never realized or didn't recall that the order included currency, although primarily aimed at gold. umm, if you don't think they will seize your belongings in the name of "what is best for the country" (meaning themselves) you better have another think coming.
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Swing said "Well, it is collapsing as we watch.This is what it looks like." Australian federal judge Jayne Jagot, doing what US judges need to do!
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Mikek31
Posts: 4387
Incept: 2009-05-04
Chicago
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Ducarius, yeah we're ****ed either way, but I wouldn't read too much into CNN -or any other, for that matter- polls. The smart folks don't even visit CNN, let alone participate in any of their bull**** polls. You might have got the answer you were looking for on Fox, but that doesn't mean them folks are smart either...
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Intentional manipulation of markets is usually thought of as a crime, not a benefit, and should lead to indictments, not praise. -Karl
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