| User Info
| The So-Called "Fiscal Cliff" in forum [Market-Ticker]
|
Crzymorse
Posts: 1195
Incept: 2010-06-25
Maryland
|
Now back to our regularly scheuled repos, rehypothecation of repos, CDS and other second order rabbit and hat tricks that will eventually destroy the planet.
In 2011, the USAs largest exported product.....Fuel. So much natural gas, companies are coming back to US to use as a feedstock for he chemical business. That should help the big I in GDP.
|
Maurevel
Posts: 475
Incept: 2009-06-14
Canada
|
Quote:
That is, GDP = (m + c) (money plus credit) by definition.
I don't think I have seen the definition expressed that way before. So the foundational assumption is that velocity of money in a balance system should be constant (either on short intervals, painlessly or very large cycles, painfully)? |
Genesis
Posts: 130787
Incept: 2007-06-26
|
Well, not necessarily.
But velocity is one of those things that economists for a long term assumed was more-or-less invariant, because it behaved that way for a long time.
But that something behaves a certain way doesn't mean that it is; it may mean you didn't understand why it behaved that way.
The fundamental economic equality is MV = PQ, which is a tautology. PQ is simply GDP. MV is simply monetary elements (currency and credit) including each "turn" or "pass" they make through the economy in a given unit of time.
Therefore GDP / (m + c) = 1; it must.
If you increase "c" (by emitting more credit money through government deficits, for example) then the value of each unit of "m" and "c" decreases ratably. It cannot be otherwise since each unit of GDP must be bought with something.
----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
|
Crzymorse
Posts: 1195
Incept: 2010-06-25
Maryland
|
Without velocity there is no I or C, net exports or G. Just a big unproductive pile of cash. I don't think you get a pcik up in velocity until you write down debt and increase taxes.
I do agree with Karl that the solution is fixing the balance sheet. Which is fixing the accounting mark to market fraud propping up asset prices, for example BOA's second lien portfolio....The truth will set you free.
|
Deepsee100
Posts: 1304
Incept: 2008-02-05
The Med
|
Slightly OT, but PQ in french slang means toilet paper..
----------
Next
|
Murf
Posts: 4486
Incept: 2007-08-28
MurfCon Warning Level: Arrogance II
|
Gen wrote..I love it when the punditry accidentally tells the truth... I'm sure they just "misspoke."
----------
The money has already been lost. Someone has to book it.
|
Uwe
Posts: 6456
Incept: 2009-01-03
19446
|
Crzymorse wrote..rabbit and hat tricks that will eventually destroy the planet. The planet will be fine. However, those dependent on government spending (even indirectly) might be up the creek without a paddle. -Uwe-
----------
“Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience.” - John Locke
|
Hstella
Posts: 284
Incept: 2009-08-18
Colorado
|
Will the tax increases affect taxation for 2012 or 2013? This year has been pretty rough - there may not be much to tax.
|
Whewt
Posts: 2295
Incept: 2008-03-17
Lake Bonneville Shoreline!
Online
|
Quote:I love it when the punditry accidentally tells parrots the truth... FIFY
----------
Except for the math, it's all going to work out.
|
Widgeon
Posts: 13481
Incept: 2007-08-30
Region formerly known as the United States
|
I predict (again), we'll see the biggest emergency spending bill in history (so far) in Nov/Dec.
|
Docj
Posts: 1000
Incept: 2009-09-10
Duck & Cover
|
Meanwhile, I've had to take the forseeable future off from Facebook because given the reaction you'd think that Amendment One in NC was a global order to round up homosexuals and send them to the gas chambers. Seriously.
Rampant financial fraud, a meltdown in process, banksters openly looting entire populations - and the going-away number one issue is that the voters of North Carolina evidently think public policy on marriage should be dictated by the Bible. Oh, and Idol is on.
Beam me up, Scotty.
----------
The preservation of liberty depends upon the intellectual and moral character of the people. As long as knowledge and virtue are diffused generally among the body of a nation it is impossible they should be enslaved. - John Adams
|
12bolt
Posts: 159
Incept: 2009-08-24
Blueridge
|
only 12000 of roughly 60000 residents in this WNC county voted on Tuesday.
Romney: 4356
Santorum: 825
Paul: 820 (me and mrs 12bolt)
Gingrich: 569
Incumbent congress critter (McHenry): 5182
Challenger 1: 649
Challenger 2: 423
Amendment 1:
For: 11603
Against: 2708 (me and mrs 12bolt)
Unfricking believable. Like DocJ said, how this issue rose to such critical importance boggles my mind. I believe the Baptist churches here encouraged their parishioners to vote like they did. Well them and Foxnews.
My wife is studying for the NC bar exam right now, and ironically just last week was reviewing the NC Constitution.
what's really funny is that NC, prior to the passage of this amendment, already only recognized marriages between men and women. ONLY.
So this campaign was a distraction designed to polarize the voters. And it worked like a ****ing charm.
Why do I even vote when it's obvious the majority of voters don't have a fricking clue and vote as they're told by the pastors and their favorite talking heads?
Every time I vote, I get angry and depressed the next day when I look at the results, just like this time.
Fiscal Cliff? It must be the gays' fault and God will favor us if we just persecute them a little more.
Right?
What a ****ing waste of time when the electorate can't discern its collective ass from a hole in the ground. Superstition and ignorance make a whale of a political cocktail.
|
Ckaminski
Posts: 1585
Incept: 2011-04-08
Online
|
Quote:Meanwhile, I've had to take the forseeable future off from Facebook You should have seen the battle I got into over some bill to outlaw smoking in cars with children who should be otherwise restrained. Which since we are all children of someone, and thank to Click-It or Ticket that's pretty much everyone, they're banning smoking in cars. When I try to explain that this is the slippery slope to banning smoking in homes/banning it period to banning alcohol (AGAIN FFS), they don't seem to get it. But those same people can unilaterally agree that the War on Drugs is bad. WTF? |
Mannfm11
Posts: 3551
Incept: 2009-02-28
DFW, Tx
|
On almost every corner here they have put in title loan outfits. The stream of credit is busted.
This all proves how ineffective government spending actually is. What happened to the US economy was too much debt, but while building too much debt, there were a lot of free sources. Even before there was broadbased direct equity extraction from housing, there was equity extraction from resales. A $100K house that appreciated 50% over 8 to 10 years might free $50,000 when sold. The seller then bought a $200K house with 5% or 10% down and used the balance to pay down debt, buy stocks or merely put in the bank. The associated economic activity surrounding housing, Realtors, construction workers, title companies, mortgage loan officers, etc, all financed through the mortgage industry, produced income for the government and demand in the economy. 5 million sales is $1 trillion gross and about $100 billion in various fees.
This is what they can't resurrect, the credit bubble. It is what they are trying to induce, but without widespread home equity, the game can't go on. A good part of the $1 trillion extra the government is spending is what is missing from the tax flow out of home financing activity. There is a lot of difference between putting out money for the FSA to eat and watch TV and Realtors, builders and other associated people buying Cadillacs. GM didn't make it a year after this bubble broke.
I am not going to say there isn't a cliff, but it appears they are going to pretend and extend as long as they can. How can one talk about the emperor being naked when the one doing the talking might be naked as well. There is a lot more domestic and international pretending in this matter than most of us can comprehend. The world can't declare the US broke, because they would all go with us. They can only afford to screw with a few minor countries like Greece, where they can go in and loot assets at a low price and minimally rock the boat, while claiming solution. If and when it comes down to a major country like the US, France, Germany or Japan, better have your **** shield ready, as the fan will be on high and the dose will come from an elephant.
----------
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
|
Genesis
Posts: 130787
Incept: 2007-06-26
|
You can't polish a turd and make it other than a turd.
----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
|
Aethor
Posts: 131
Incept: 2011-11-15
|
I wouldn't mind public policy being decided based on Bible, or for that matter, any recognized holy scripture, if everyone (politicians etc) would have to stick to it in all aspects.
Thou shalt not kill - pull armies out of other countries and don't start wars
Thou shalt not steal - uh... banksters? credit expansion etc? rampant fraud everywhere?
Thou shalt not covet this and that... see above.
Thou shalt not bear false witness (or in some editions, simpler, thou shalt not lie) - let me see politicians stick to that one, and lose their positions if they break it.
Or you could apply Shariah (Islamic law). Hmm... just what does it prescribe as punishment for thieves, and what would it say about those who stole billions?
|
Cetera
Posts: 77
Incept: 2009-05-21
Wyoming
|
@12bolt:
It is better to deal with gay marriage locally (or at the state level) then at the national level. It will inevitably prevent it from being a campaign issue at the federal level.
Also, sex, marriage, and child bearing are matters of supreme import for any society, and have large impacts. In the same manner that amateurs discuss tactics while generals discuss logistics, amateurs discuss politics when it is really all about demographics. Sex and procreation is the most fundamental issue a society has, and it can be talked about rationally or irrationally, based upon religion, science, practicality, or somewhere amongst the three, but it will be talked about and social pressures brought to bear on "outside" customs. It is as inevitable a part of life as death and taxes.
It would not surprise me in the least to see a socialist/ponzi regime somewhere in the very near future banning all contraception and abortion with the rationale that the only way to keep kicking the can down the road is more people. More suckers to be the bag holders in ponzi schemes, more people to grow the economy, more people to tax. Russia already has procreation days. It will come eventually. Homosexuality may be criminalized and outlawed unless you "donate" fertilized ovum to child rearing.
You can't get the Orwellian boot stomping on the face forever unless you've got faces forever. Europe's demographics are dying. So is their economy. The two are not only related, but intertwined. Housing could be forced to always increase in price, if every adult was mandated to have 2+ children. You can do a lot of fun things with market bubbles, if you blow a population bubble, constantly.
I hope that isn't too far afield off topic for Karl.
----------
Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God!
|
Obsidian
Posts: 2448
Incept: 2008-10-10
Eagle Mountain, Utah
|
Quote:I wouldn't mind public policy being decided based on Bible, or for that matter, any recognized holy scripture, if everyone (politicians etc) would have to stick to it in all aspects.
I'm glad you want to control how I live my life.
----------
232-Th + n --> 233-Th --> 233-Pa --> 233-U.
Trolling is a art.
|
Aethor
Posts: 131
Incept: 2011-11-15
|
Quote:I'm glad you want to control how I live my life. I was being sarcastic. My point was that the politicians would be the first offenders... "thou shalt not lie/bear false witness", "thou shalt not steal" etc would disqualify them right away, with banksters right behind them. |
Docj
Posts: 1000
Incept: 2009-09-10
Duck & Cover
|
@Ckaminski - yeah, it's pretty ironic that I'm noticing the same people who are only happy too use the power of The State to tell me what I can (and can't) put in my kids' lunch boxes, how many of what sort of firearms I'm allowed to have (if any), whether or not I should be allowed (were I a smoker) to smoke, etc. are absolutely apoplectic that The State is telling homosexuals in NC that they won't recognize their marriage as legal.
Seems they're perfectly A-OK with forcing people to so stuff, but they don't like it all that much when the shoe is on the other foot. So cry me a river, folks.
I didn't even bother trying to suggest that The State ought not be in the marriage business in the first place.
----------
The preservation of liberty depends upon the intellectual and moral character of the people. As long as knowledge and virtue are diffused generally among the body of a nation it is impossible they should be enslaved. - John Adams
|
Obsidian
Posts: 2448
Incept: 2008-10-10
Eagle Mountain, Utah
|
Quote:I was being sarcastic. Ah, my sarcasm meter must have broken. 
----------
232-Th + n --> 233-Th --> 233-Pa --> 233-U.
Trolling is a art.
|
