Consumer Credit March -- Ouch
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-05-08 11:07
by Karl Denninger
in Consumer
Ignore this thread
Consumer Credit March -- Ouch
 

Gaaaaaaak!

Consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 7-3/4 percent in the first quarter. Revolving credit was little changed, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 11-1/2 percent. In March, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 10-1/4 percent.

Uh.... Non-revolving?  Where'd it come from?

Is that what it looks like?

Yep.  Student loans.

Bend over young adults, here it comes again!

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info Consumer Credit March -- Ouch in forum [Market-Ticker]
Eli
Posts: 7212
Incept: 2007-09-10
Silver
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Its funny how money works. People are not rushing out to buy houses so the gov. is more than happy to pass out all the rope students can take to hang themselves.

got to find a bubble.

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If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
George Orwell

Mdm
Posts: 333
Incept: 2010-10-13

South Florida
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With the number of people sounding the alarm on the student loan system in recent years, you have to wonder how many of these people are actually college material. This issue has reached well beyond the blogosphere at this point; I've seen numerous stories about it on the MSM. The MSM pretty regularly shows stories about people heavily in non-dischargeable debt who cannot find work, cannot file BK, and have absolutely no hope of ever recovering financially. You also have to wonder how much of an increase there has been in older people going back to school because they cannot find work (and how many of them applied to school after being denied disability benefits). Student loans and disability - the new unemployment compensation.
Irishblues
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Wisconsin
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I have seen a bunch of people I went to HS with who are doing the "I'm going back to college at age 35, age 40, age 45" thing. In all except one case, they're all taking out student loans to pay for it all - and many of them are going into fields like cosmetology, bookkeeping, medical transcription, nursing aide, teaching aide, ... generally low-paying fields where there's already a glut of people. How they're going to eventually pay off those student loans, I have no idea - which is going to be a double-whammy, since a lot of them are either deep in debt already or hovering above the "debt death" trap by a thread.
Nevertoolate
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Gold A True American Patriot!
San Antonio de Bexar de runover with illegals, Texas
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Let's look at the this as those who have debt and those who don't. Those that don't aren't part of these graphs. The ones "with" debt are increasing the amount they owe (And at those "new" interest rates that the banks put into effect just prior to the "new" credit card rules). My take is that these folks are "supplementing" their incomes with this additional credit and they will continue to do so until their "Thelma and Louise" moment happens. The high interest rate the banks are charging anyone with a balance assures this outcome for these Greedy Bastards. Long prepaid credit cards.

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"Socialist never mind stealing, as long as they are the ones doing the stealing. They never mind lying, as long as they are doing the lying."-Mannfm11

Before you attempt to beat the odds, be sure that you can survive the odds beating you.

Reason: sp error
Mistermagoo
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@Mdm I, unfortunately, work in a financial aid office (at a large community college) and there are a lot of students who look at our office as an extension of the welfare office, and nothing more. They aren't here to get educated, they are here to game the system and get their 'free' money.

I really need to find another job, and fast.
Debtpie
Posts: 534
Incept: 2009-12-17

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"you have to wonder how many of these people are actually college material"

The majority are not....but as long as they can pay...they will be admitted and pass with C average...I have a professor friend at a private school...the unwritten law is that everyone passes no matter what...she has students that only show up for the exams...if that...which they fail...but she still passes them with a C...if she ever dares to fail someone, the provost comes down on her hard....she is rewarded according to her "success" rate of passing grades...so, she's very "successful" at getting kids through the course.

That is the state of (private) higher education in many schools.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

In a nutshell, these kids don't want to work...they take out students loans in place of jobs in order to live the life style they deserve but can't find anyone to provide(aka parents)..that's what it boils down to.

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A Leader, or an Opportunist? "A leader has the capacity of vision, the ability to see where things are headed before people in general see those things." Mitt Romney --- DebtPie's definition: a leader decides where "things" should head and "leads" us there.

Docj
Posts: 1000
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Nope, no bubble there. Not a chance. No sir.

(removes Fed-colored glasses)

HOLY CRAP!! (faints)

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The preservation of liberty depends upon the intellectual and moral character of the people. As long as knowledge and virtue are diffused generally among the body of a nation it is impossible they should be enslaved. - John Adams
Mcmwest
Posts: 134
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Western Kansas
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In small towns the newspapers publish a picture of the local HS graduates and their plans for the future. Over the last 6-8 years it seems as though about 50% of all seniors headed off to college were going into one of two fields, sports management or physical training. Seems that the new economy will revolve around sports in the near future.

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According to NBER the recession ended in June 2009 so if you're broke and out of a job its all in your head.- Jay Leno
Jonesapple10
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yeah Debtpie, don't bite that hand that feeds you..who cares if they pass or not; maybe the higher up actually DO know their degrees are WORTHLESS anyway?
Crzymorse
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Maryland
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I think they are going to change the law and this debt will be written off in mass at some point.

The turning back point was in 2008 when Lehman Brothers failed and the congress passed TARP. From that point on our economy is completely dependent on huge deficits as is Europe and Japan. I'm not sure what changes anything in the near term, the demographics in Europe, Japan, Russia and China are awful. The central banks decided they are going to print currency to buy debt collectively, therefore the relative inflation rates between the developed economies are relatively stable. Basicially the central banks are pumping the money supply because the velocity of money/credit has slowed down because it's locked up in underperforming assets.

Scrub_python
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I think Mdm nailed it! Student loans are like the new credit crack hit, especially among those who indulged in the HELOC binge. I personally see people in their mid 30's-40's rationalize going back to school because of the "economy" and using student loans to continue their unsustainable lifestyle.

Those are the people I have no sympathy for....actions meet consequnces and all that. The younger generation I feel a little more sorry for because they have been berated their whole lives that they have to go to college to make it or their only other option is flipping burgers.
Aztrader
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Scottsdale, AZ
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The sad part is how many of these people are going to online for profit schools and paying up to $500 a credit hour for a worthless degree. This is nothing short of financial******with no laws.

This is one of the worst scams ever because the government helped to cause the problem by rewarding outsourcing, then sucker the people back in to believing that more education will get them a new job. How many people with masters degrees are flipping burgers today..................
Drb
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TX
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Debtpie -

being a prof in one of exact sciences at a large state school, I can say that about a third to a half of students who enter university are not college material. They do not know simple math and geometry, the type which is taught at middle school. Not only that, it is likely they will never learn it. With respect to grades, we are pressured by the administration to pass everyone. Of course, it is never said that way, but the idea is there. Non-tenured faculty is in bad shape as they can be pressured more efficiently, and perhaps this is one of the reasons why there is a desire to abolish tenure system. At many private schools the argument is - we can not fail people who pay 50K per year!!! Additionally, when I tell students the concept that they should match the amount of borrowing with their potential future income, they are shocked!!! The fact that they will have to repay loans has never entered their minds, and apparently I am the only one telling them such depressing things.

Reason: addition
Reluctantdebtor
Posts: 131
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ohio
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Some really smart local kids - who are broke - have been using various methods to offload school costs to the regular, non-student-loan credit system. Low-cost colleges are chosen, and loan money is augmented by part-time work. The specifics aren't important, but I'm sure you can fill in the blanks. A degree is earned without acquiring a bulletproof albatross. Strategic defaults within a year or two of graduation are occasionally involved.

Reason: typo
Marvinmartian
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Stanford offers a computer science course in Cocoa/Touch programming. The lectures are downloadable from iTunes for free:
http://itunes.apple.com/us/itunes-u/deve....

In my area (Pasadena,CA) there are adds for these skills, $100k+.

All it takes is motivation. This is something the FSA is trained to remove from their repetoire.

Jonesapple10
Posts: 379
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Quote:
I personally see people in their mid 30's-40's rationalize going back to school because of the "economy" and using student loans to continue their unsustainable lifestyle.


This only works for one semester though, right? If they give you a certain amount, you still have to pay for tuition, etc. If you drop out, the loan is done and due, so what, they get one semester (ok $20K+), but they don't get 2nd semester money. How does this help them sustain a lifestyle? Maybe I am confused as to how the loans work (I only borrowed for one quarter of my entire education).
Poodlelover
Posts: 147
Incept: 2012-02-02

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You mean real incomes didn't increase at 7%+?

Although some still maintain student loan debt is not a bubble, it obviously is. Unfortunately, it's also a rock and a hard place situation for many. If you come out of highschool in today's job market and you plan on a fruitful career without a degree the odds are stacked even more against you than if you have a degree and $60k in debt. The nation has conspired to create a situation that all but forces many young to go to college at these elevated rates.

"Over the last 6-8 years it seems as though about 50% of all seniors headed off to college were going into one of two fields, sports management or physical training. Seems that the new economy will revolve around sports in the near future."

HAHAHA good luck to them, they'll need it with those degrees.

"The fact that they will have to repay loans has never entered their minds, and apparently I am the only one telling them such depressing things."

Of course not. I remember well what it's like to be a teenager entering college. It's no surprise many take a loan that won't have to be paid for years so they can spend the next four years partying and sleeping in (and around). They are not at all qualified to make these major financial decisions.
Dan721
Posts: 2776
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Phoenix, AZ
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I'm not discounting that there are too many student loans out there, BUT how much of the delta Karl cites is because the Federal Government now issues the vast majority of student loands itself? The gap between the non-revolving debt and the non-revolving debt ex-FedGov blows out just after the Dept of Ed took on this responsibility.

A quick census of 2011 and 2005 Sallie Mae issuances at
https://www1.salliemae.com/about/investo....
shows 2005 issuance at $27,653,735,000 and 2011 issuance at $4,577,347,000. That's almost an 85% decrease in issuance by Sallie Mae.

Question: is total student loan issuance as parabolic as is presented above, or is the extreme change in issuers skewing the chart?
Scrub_python
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Jonesapple in the situations im refering to they don't drop out but take less than full time schedule and while some money goes towards tuition the surplus goes towards the latest gadgets, mcmansion payments, etc.....

I didn't say how long it could prolong these peoples situation, however for people with this type of mentality forethought is nowhere to be found. I am not saying this is the case with all people going back to school, however this is my personal anecdotal obsevation of how some have gamed the system and most of these same people believe there will also be some type of student loan debt forgiveness. Messsed up!
Aztrader
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Newcub14
Posts: 423
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I think we are being a little naive.

The powers that be have something in the works:

1. Broadcast to the public that higher education is the singular path to prosperity.
2. Legislate out private lenders
3. Subsidize, without credit review/bias, at a ridiculously below mrkt rate for quasi-unsecured loan
4. Make loan non-dischargeable
5. Craft govt programs [e.g. by becoming a public servant - making under X dollars] for student loan "forgiveness"

IMO "student lending" is a facade for propping the ponzi [another form of fed stimulus] and building govt/indentured class.

Sparticlebrane
Posts: 287
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Quote:
The MSM pretty regularly shows stories about people heavily in non-dischargeable debt who cannot find work, cannot file BK, and have absolutely no hope of ever recovering financially.

That's because the MSM prefers to show drama, rather showing than those of us who have student loans, graduated, got good jobs, and are paying down our loans ASAP. And yes, we do exist.

Eaglewwit
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SoCal
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Quote:
The majority are not....but as long as they can pay...they will be admitted and pass with C average...I have a professor friend at a private school...the unwritten law is that everyone passes no matter what...she has students that only show up for the exams...if that...which they fail...but she still passes them with a C...if she ever dares to fail someone, the provost comes down on her hard....she is rewarded according to her "success" rate of passing grades...so, she's very "successful" at getting kids through the course.[/q[]

I spoke with a state school professor who graduated from Harvard with a full ride Scholarship. He was older and said when he went to Harvard there were two types of people, scholarship students, and rich elitists kids. He said the classes at Harvard are far easier than the state schools. All the elitist kids pass regardless of performance. Harvard wanted to make sure they give scholarship to all the brightest kids in the country so they could use them to maintain the image of the institution. Otherwise it is just an elitist club.

Not news to most I am sure.
Marvinmartian
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Pasadena, CA
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Eaglewwit wrote..
He was older and said when he went to Harvard there were two types of people, scholarship students, and rich elitists kids.


I always wondered why I got a scholarship at Vanderbilt.

It has a reputation as a party school. I was a EE, misfit for party school.

It wound up working for me. I'm sure this is still going on.
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