GreeceFire Re-Ignites
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-05-08 08:00
by Karl Denninger
in International
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GreeceFire Re-Ignites
 

In a word, "Duh!"

U.S. stock-index futures declined as Greek political leaders struggled to form a government, raising concern the Mediterranean nation may default on its debt as early as next month.

...

Antonis Samaras, the leader of the New Democracy party in Greece, said he failed to forge an agreement to form a government after weekend elections. The attempt will now pass to Alexis Tsipras, the head of Syriza, the second-biggest party, which has vowed to cancel the austerity conditions related to the financial bailout.

And do exactly what?

This is the amusing part of all these debates -- you have those who say "no more austerity!" like being austere is a dirty word.  It in fact simply means to live within one's means -- to balance budgets, to pay for services desired with taxes.

How is that bad, if I may ask?

More to the point how does any politician -- or political party -- defend anything else?

It's one thing to temporarily spend more than one makes when there is an existential threat to your existence.  When you're at war, for example, and that war is for your survival (you're being invaded, perchance?) there's a strong argument for deficit spending.  After all, if you lose the war your debts will not matter, will they?

But this isn't the case in Greece -- or anywhere else at the present time.  There are no wars for survival among the western world at present and there haven't been for quite some time.

So where are the balanced budgets?

More to the point refusal to face this reality -- by any political candidate, office-holder or party -- is an active fraud against the people.

Why?

Simple -- it's a matter of division.

Remember that for every unit of GDP (production) there must be one of monetary credit or currency to pay for it.  If there are more units of credit emitted then the price per unit of GDP goes up.  This is "inflation" in point of fact.  If salaries rise exactly as does the emission of credit there is no net effect whatsoever; the only way deficit spending can "add growth" is by stealing from someone

That is, this is a zero-sum game and there's no way around it.  It's a matter of third-grade mathematics despite the refusal of most politicians to speak to the truth and recognize this fact. 

Unfortunately for Greece (and everyone else) there is no such thing as a free lunch.  But there are still plenty of people who believe there is, mostly because the electorate in the nations of the western world continue to demand "hand outs" of various forms (sometimes arguing they "paid for them" when in fact the money was stolen and spent elsewhere) and a great way to get fired as a politician is to say "No."

Nonetheless Greece and the rest of the world must deal with the fundamental realities of government and monetary policy: All government services must, to be sound, be paid for with current taxes.

It really is that simple folks, despite the continual lie factory that we have in Washington DC and the Europeans have in their respective Parliaments.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info GreeceFire Re-Ignites in forum [Market-Ticker]
Themortgagedude
Posts: 8849
Incept: 2007-12-17
Green
saint louis
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Yep we should have known the people would choose to listen to Paulie Krugnuts and declare deficits do not matter. When Bondzilla bends the world over and shoves his monster cock up our collective asses - well society deserves what's coming if they don't choose the right path here and now.

What is hard to believe is that the deficits do not matter is becoming a talking point for the Democratic party.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Asimov
Posts: 103906
Incept: 2007-08-26
Gold
East Tennessee Eastern Time
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Quote:
All government services must, to be sound, be paid for with current taxes.


My opinion on this is that, with EXTRAORDINARILY STRICT exceptions (like a REAL CONSTITUTIONALLY appropriate war where we are not the aggressors), the only money that should be availible to the government is what was collected the YEAR BEFORE.

Of course I'd much rather see that amount to come from tariffs and such instead of taxes, but am fully behind the fairtax because I want people to have what they are paying shoved straight in their face every time they reach for their wallet.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Flyingillini
Posts: 87
Incept: 2009-06-09
Green
Reno, NV
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I don't see how any of this ever changes. The FSA will always demand the FS, it will in fact only increase as childish human nature seems to demonstrate. The politicians are responding to demands for more FS by.... handing out more FS. If they try to cut off the FS, they will be removed from office by the leeches. I don't see how there is any hope for things to change course at this point.

When the FSA outnumbers normal people who are willing to work, its all over.
Zarathustra
Posts: 5953
Incept: 2009-04-29
Silver A True American Patriot!
Funkytown
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GREECE IS SAVED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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"And in knowing that you know nothing, that makes you the smartest of all." - Socrates
Degaston
Posts: 2264
Incept: 2007-07-27
Green
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Zara, thanks for the good news. I guess I can go back to eating my bag of potato chips while I watch "Dancing with the Stars" and not worry one bit while my 401K quietly turns into a 0.401K.

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3/17/2013: Bullish on nothing - 100 percent in cash.
Docj
Posts: 998
Incept: 2009-09-10
Silver
Duck & Cover
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Let's ignore, for the moment, that "austerity" as proposed by the now-outgoing Greek government, was hardly anything particularly, ahem, austere.

Just like here - dare suggest that the rate of growth of any government program be slowed even the littlest bit and the FSA (both the 1% and 99% varieties) and their political spokes*****s are enraged.

Yep, this will all end well.

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The preservation of liberty depends upon the intellectual and moral character of the people. As long as knowledge and virtue are diffused generally among the body of a nation it is impossible they should be enslaved. - John Adams
Crzymorse
Posts: 1188
Incept: 2010-06-25

Maryland
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I like the position, give us our bailout money to live our lifestyle or we will default on all the money our greek banks lent to the greek government (money which was printed into existence from the ECB and loaned to the greek banks at a low interest rate). All that liquidity and no solvency. I expect another good can kicking, buying another 6-8 weeks. They need to buy enough time for an orderly reorganization of the Euro zone. As long as the EU continues in its current state the US can borrow and monetize without any worries. I have a feeling some of the bigger EU countries have some off balance sheet time bombs ticking away.
Musicandnature
Posts: 1951
Incept: 2007-12-05
Gold
NJ
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Living within means is so passe. How dare you try and tell people to live responsibly ! <sarcasm>
The consumer-ism pimps need this ww charade to continue. They keep the lemmings dumb with stoopid tv ranging from "Jersey shore" to "Good Wife", mind numbing video games, social media, and music- if you allow the art form wide leeway- like Gaga, Katy Perry and one republic with songs like "good life" that keep reinforcing in the masses minds that this is the way things are supposed to be and what do we have to complain about..Oh, this has gotta be the good life-
'This has gotta be the good life
This could really be a good life, good life'


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Since it costs a lot to win, and even more to lose, You and me bound to spend some time wonder'n what to choose. Goes to show, you don't ever know, watch each card you play and play it slow...Wait until that deal come round, don't you let that deal go down, no no. Garcia/Hunter.
Crzymorse
Posts: 1188
Incept: 2010-06-25

Maryland
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If Europe was like the US or Japan the central banks could keep this routine up indefinitely. However the Eurozone, the source of a thousand wars over the years will screw it up for everyone again.

I suspect the bond vigilantes don't have enought cash in their accouts to cover our 1T plus budget deficits. The central bank doesn't run out of money, doesn't care about a return on investment and interested in political stability. Bill Gross tried to play bond vigilante but got religion real quick.
Drench
Posts: 28631
Incept: 2009-11-10
Green
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But... but... but...
Quote:
Adding austerity to the mix is simply politically unsustainable in mature democracies, as the election results in France and Greece demonstrate.
Quote:
Kent H. Hughes is the director of the Program on America and the Global Economy at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. He served as associate deputy secretary at the Department of Commerce under President Bill Clinton.
http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/08/opinion/hu....
Whewt
Posts: 2289
Incept: 2008-03-17
Silver A True American Patriot!
Lake Bonneville Shoreline!
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It will not be over until the US Representatives, who approve the coming EU bailout, get voted out of office.

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Except for the math, it's all going to work out.
Atlasrocked
Posts: 363
Incept: 2009-03-23
Silver
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will result in immediate wealth and jobs. Once the budget is balanced and the debt payed down, then these countries are where they are. Paying back borrowed money is not a wealth creation exercise. It's an exercise in honesty, fiscal prudence, and preserving a future for our progeny. Keynesian spending has a 100% record of failure. 100%.

The austerity opponents are making an argument like this: 20 people take out a home loan, and only 2 of them make payments. The 2 making payments are failures, because they can no longer buy expensive groceries and cars. The 18 not making payments are investing in success with the loan payments they aren't making.
Frat
Posts: 1935
Incept: 2009-07-15
Silver
NKY
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Again, I ask of the Greeks:

What now?


I'm glad you told the extortionists to "**** off!"

But what do you do now? Their Skittles, though they came with serious consequences, kept your nation afloat and the handouts flowing.


What the hell you gonna do now?

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We're ****ed. Where's Henry Bowman when you need him?
Atlasrocked
Posts: 363
Incept: 2009-03-23
Silver
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Ooops my post got cut off at the top:

Austerity isn't really a policy, it's forced march. No one is proclaiming austerity will result in immediate wealth and jobs. Once the budget is balanced and the debt payed down, then these countries are where they are. Paying back borrowed money is not a wealth creation exercise. It's an exercise in honesty, fiscal prudence, and preserving a future for our progeny. Keynesian spending has a 100% record of failure. 100%.

The austerity opponents are making an argument like this: 20 people take out a home loan, and only 2 of them make payments. The 2 making payments are failures, because they can no longer buy expensive groceries and cars. The 18 not making payments are investing in success with the loan payments they aren't making.
Delapaz
Posts: 61
Incept: 2009-04-29

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What are they going to do now?

1. Get control of the government. Say anything to secure power, lie, cheat whatever.

2. Tell the bond holders to go pound sand

3. steal anything that isn't nailed down. No pension fund is safe in Greek banks.

4. Print drachmas!

5. profit.

The important point is #1, and that's all they really care about.
Bagbalm
Posts: 4254
Incept: 2009-03-19
Green
Just North of Detroit
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If the only way they can really justify continued spending in excess of income is war then I say they are so addicted to spending you can expect the war to be supplied to justify it.

Debtpie
Posts: 534
Incept: 2009-12-17

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"And do exactly what?"

1. "renegotiate" the foreign owned debt.

2. Leave the EU.

3. Print the hell out of the Drachma and hand out free cheese to everyone except the evil rich/business owners.

4. The Socialist EUTopia is alive once again.

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A Leader, or an Opportunist? "A leader has the capacity of vision, the ability to see where things are headed before people in general see those things." Mitt Romney --- DebtPie's definition: a leader decides where "things" should head and "leads" us there.
Mortgageguymn
Posts: 1562
Incept: 2009-03-09
Green
North Coast
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I think the term "repudiate" is much clearer than "renegotiate".
Poodlelover
Posts: 145
Incept: 2012-02-02

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France's new gov has also indicated they are not so much on board with austerity. Should be fun to watch.
Smacktle
Posts: 1359
Incept: 2009-01-20
Green
Texas
Online
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When did the fire ever go out? AND what is Greece gonna do to fight a war? Throw rocks?!

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The faults of the burglar are the qualities of the financier.
- George Bernard Shaw
Tman2
Posts: 139
Incept: 2008-10-31
Green
Illinois
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It appears the French are jealous of the Greeks. Good Luck with that.
Marvinmartian
Posts: 748
Incept: 2011-03-16
Green
Pasadena, CA
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A politician running for re-election is at war.

If he loses, there is no "after".

Therefore the object of running for re-election is to outpromise your opponents and give goodies to your supporters.
Atlasrocked
Posts: 363
Incept: 2009-03-23
Silver
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I read a Teddy Roosevelt book it described how in the 1890s, a presidential candidate gave no speeches until after the final candidate was chosen by each party, lest they look like they were begging for votes. Their acquaintences spoke for their character.

They minimized speeches to avoid making promises they could not keep. It was considered wrong to make promises. Now promises are glorified and exalted.
Joejohns
Posts: 694
Incept: 2010-09-09
Green

Banned
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austerity after years of pillage is not an option.

there is no bonzilla as what can't be collected will not attempt to be collected.

People act like all these deficit amounts were all accumulated under a set of socialist gvt lenders.

Most are so blinded by their goofy puritan mindset towards OTHERS that they take the easy way out.

There is not an easy way out.

Austerity will not work, you write off what can't be paid and start over, just like any responsible biz that wishes to prosper does.

Following an era of endless lies and ponzi runup promises you really believe thaat the results of that will be paid back. Talk about golden bond ****ting unicorns is nice and all..... but not a good strategy for wealth preservation.


come on, get real.

p.s.

these recent elections are anybody BUT............

I wouldn't read anymore into them than that.........



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