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| European Dislocation On Deck in forum [Market-Ticker]
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Mo
Posts: 12158
Incept: 2007-06-26
Pa.
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Quote:France has apparently tossed Sarcozy in favor of socialist Hollande. This is possibly far more important, as it means the German-French "line" on holding the Euro zone together with bailouts was just flushed down the toilet. Merkel has no prayer in Hell of being able to do this alone. I could be wrong, but I think it will be far easier to buy off a socialist than it will a neo-nazi.
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Welcome to Pottersville
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Bobrice
Posts: 10
Incept: 2012-02-26
Toronto, Ontario; Canada
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Well, what do you think the odds are that there will be some short-term market manipulation to shake out the shorts temporarily? I've never understood how the Fed manipulates the futures et al, but I think I've seen Karl (I could be wrong) demonstrate just such a thing on the Ticker. Thoughts...
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Stonedog
Posts: 2084
Incept: 2008-05-29
New Jersey
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Also today (and I hope you consider this on topic otherwise please bilge) Merkel's Christian Democratic Union saw the Worst Results in the northern German State of Schleswig-Holstein Since 1950http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-06....
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"I would characterize my professional disdain as more of a professional contempt for their [Central Banker, Banker and politician] economic and financial policies, priorities, presumptions and prescriptions." - Lauren Lyster on Capital Account for Friday June 16, 2012
"All the stimulus, the bailouts, the quantit
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Bullionaire
Posts: 2227
Incept: 2007-12-21
Fear The People
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As ZH likes to say, "Presented without further commentary."
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"Anytime a financial company can take your hard earned money and keep it for decades without promising a set return, and even penalize you for early withdrawal it is a con. America has been conned by the whole 401K concept." - Ignorance Is Bliss, from a ZH comment section
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Wineaux
Posts: 533
Incept: 2009-03-23
pure Liquid pleasure
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Quote: Greece, for those who aren't paying attention, has apparently elected enough Neo Nazis to get them into Parliament 
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What wine goes with unemployment?
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Murf
Posts: 4486
Incept: 2007-08-28
MurfCon Warning Level: Arrogance II
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...was that unicorn meat ethically harvested?
Seems a wave of nationalism has begun in Europe that will lead to tariffs and price controls, for starters.
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The money has already been lost. Someone has to book it.
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Rarnopp
Posts: 897
Incept: 2008-02-26
London, United Kingdom
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Greece's peculiar electoral system means that the pro-bailout New Democracy (Conservative) and Pasok (Socialist) parties may jointly have a tiny theoretical majority in Parliament but, faced with a 60% vote for anti-bailout parties, such a government would have no legitimacy and would likely precipitate a (real and literal) revolution if it attempted to proceed with the pre-election programme.
It's possible that the French election result might delay a recognition of the inevitable, as the Greeks (and the rest of us) wait to see whether Francois Hollande is serious about negotiating any change in the stability pact, and (if so) whether he can force a meaningful shift in the German position.
I suspect such a delay isn't going to last long, though: it's difficult to see what kind of rabbits could be pulled out of the hat now.
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"Things and actions are what they are, and the consequences of them will be what they will be: why then should we desire to be deceived?"
- Bishop Joseph Butler
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Nevertoolate
Posts: 1222
Incept: 2007-08-26
San Antonio de Bexar de runover with illegals, Texas
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Someone needs to check where all the Deutsch Marks are kept. Why wait for all of these bankrupt countries to leave the EU? Merkel has no good political options left and neither does the German Economy. It will come down to trying to save her own political neck and whatever is left of their economy. Gen is right, here it comes.
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"Socialist never mind stealing, as long as they are the ones doing the stealing. They never mind lying, as long as they are doing the lying."-Mannfm11
Before you attempt to beat the odds, be sure that you can survive the odds beating you.
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Djloche
Posts: 3342
Incept: 2008-07-07
In the Mountains
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Quote:Someone needs to check where all the Deutsch Marks are kept. Why wait for all of these bankrupt countries to leave the EU? Merkel has no good political options left and neither does the German Economy. That's Germany's trump card in negotiations - I suspect that they will use it.
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"Just because the **** has not yet hit you in the face, does not mean that the **** has not hit the fan."
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Ghopper
Posts: 2317
Incept: 2011-06-11
Staten Island, NY
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I'm sure they have freshly printed Deutsch Marks in a warehouse in Germany.
The problem is the same as the Swiss ran into (just on a more massive scale).
The mark would become very strong, while in parallel the Euro would crater.
Very bad for an exporter, but they may have to pull that trigger.
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Sandor
Posts: 1944
Incept: 2007-08-08
Deltaville,Virginia
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What color Swan is this anyway?
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Trades50
Posts: 4237
Incept: 2007-10-30
Land of Tax and Spend
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Plenty of intervention and European happy talk the last couple of years. It would be a shock to many if the Euro unwound. The US being immune to a dislocation is the same thing.
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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
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Lemonaid
Posts: 9921
Incept: 2008-01-20
Metro Detroit
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Why is a strong currency bad for exporting?
Raw material can be snatched up on the cheap with it. They can invest the wealth in emerging markets.
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"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." Ludwig von Mises
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Asimov
Posts: 104646
Incept: 2007-08-26
East Tennessee Eastern Time
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Europe has a long history of solving these types of problems. I'm really quite surprised they haven't already.
War is easy... for the ones at the top making the decisions. And contrary to popular myth, historically, violence has been the solution.
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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
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Savingsaretheway
Posts: 133
Incept: 2011-12-16
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How Italian and Spanish bonds trade tomorrow will probably dictate the direction the market will take. Futures have already cut their losses in half, albeit, they were steep losses.
The tinfoil in me is beginning to wonder if this fear isn't being intentionally inserted into the market to get fuel prices down. Gasoline futures have dropped 50 cents in just the past three weeks.
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Nuke_engineer
Posts: 2704
Incept: 2007-08-19
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Quote:Those who believed that "they" would hold everything together through the election while willfully ignoring 2008, when the precise same projections were made and turned out to be crap, might want to re-think their expectations just a wee bit. I stated before and I'll state again that I expected there will be a series of "shocks" (call them "scares"), 3-4 of them, that will rattle the foundation of the ponzi schemes (note I have plural). This is certainly a major one and though there may be a major dip this isn't the trigger. Like the Titanic, this massive Ponzi market will do some major shakes, rattles and rolls with some desperate Fed and other US Government actions before the lit overheated boilers go under and the death rattle starts and all will then see the cliff coming. I suspect that Bendover Ben and Obama have 1-2 tricks up their sleeves we can't even fathom yet that they'll roll out on the next crisis or about the time Hollande gets into power. Volatility here we come! This will make the volatility of the Fukushima radiation sensor readings look pale in comparison.....the banksters know that Bendover Ben is coming by to ask for a return of the favor he gave them in the name of Obama..... Market goes down strong, traditional "sticksaves" come out, then if that doesn't work in bringing the market back up a little then QE3 and if that doesn't fix it, then we see in a few weeks the first of the tricks.....mid-November is still my target for the big disappointment.....just the humble opinion of a dumb engineer, not a brilliant expert like they abound here.
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Trading and investing is understanding about people, emotions and corruption of government, corporations, banks and people using propaganda, lies, mathematics and bankster logic working against you.
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Penguinzee
Posts: 228
Incept: 2010-06-13
Tampa Bay, FL
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Well, Nikkei no likey, down ~2.5% as of this post...
I tend to think like the rest of you, Germany is really the one on the spot now, and it has cards to play-Greece can only force the timing of the issue now, not how it will resolve-only Germany can do that now.
Hollande I suspect is going to turn out a lot like Mitterand, with political gravity pulling him towards the center, but it's still going to be a shock after Sarkozy to have a leftist back in power. IF Merkel and Hollande can find a way to work together, I could see the Euro lasting 3-5 more years; if they can't work together (or Merkel is ousted) then the Euro is going to last 1 year tops, with a LOT of chaos following, economic, political, and social.
Of course, the other question is how are the powers behind the throne thinking? GS, JPM, etc.? Would be interesting to see how they are positioning themselves for the next 6 months...
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Crime is far too lucrative a game to let the little people play.-popofthebright
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Bozonian
Posts: 19956
Incept: 2007-09-01
Saratoga Springs, New York
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Drop your cocks and grab your stocks!
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The most expensive thing you can have is a closed mind. -- Geoffrey Filburt
Everything I write is my opinion and not to be considered proven fact. Nothing I write should be considered financial advice.
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Flappingeagle
Posts: 1247
Incept: 2011-04-14
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Penguinzee said: Quote:I tend to think like the rest of you, Germany is really the one on the spot now, and it has cards to play-Greece can only force the timing of the issue now, not how it will resolve-only Germany can do that now. Germany has the cards to play? Let's take a look at the flipside using an old saying. If you owe the bank a little bit of money and can't pay, then you have a problem. If you owe the bank a lot of money and can't pay, then the bank has a problem.I'm thinking that Greece has one hell of a trump card although, their politicians have weakened thier hand by systematically looting their own country to pay of banksters. If they had not have looted their own country then Greece could have told them to shove it and would have had some resources with which to begin rebuilding. On another topic, Sandor said: Quote:What color Swan is this anyway? Octarine. $0.02 to Terry Pratchett. Flap
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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
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Djloche
Posts: 3342
Incept: 2008-07-07
In the Mountains
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The first country to leave the euro stands to benefit the most from leaving.
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"Just because the **** has not yet hit you in the face, does not mean that the **** has not hit the fan."
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Jstanley01
Posts: 8263
Incept: 2008-07-30
San Antonio, Texas
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There's only one thing left for Germany to do. Invade Poland.
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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum
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Uppity_peasant
Posts: 3229
Incept: 2009-06-26
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I made a prediction last May about problems if gasoline stayed above $3.50 a gallon for too many weeks. I was spectacularly wrong - the can just got kicked down the road.
Well, here we are going on 9 weeks or more with gasoline kissing $4.00 a gallon. These guys are AWESOME. I think it's why Obobo & The Bernank are squirming so much, though.
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If it's true that "assault weapons" are "weapons of war" and don't belong on the streets of America, why do the police need them? Who are the police at war with?
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Nuke_engineer
Posts: 2704
Incept: 2007-08-19
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Quote:The first country to leave the euro stands to benefit the most from leaving. Bingo.....the question is do we have any secret agreements? If so, then Quote:There's only one thing left for Germany to do. Invade Poland something like the above begins to make a lot of sense.History may not repeat itself, but it can sure rhyme as it does often. If we have neo-nazis rising in power again, why not an act of war to get things moving quickly if there's some secret pact to overcome we don't know about?
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Trading and investing is understanding about people, emotions and corruption of government, corporations, banks and people using propaganda, lies, mathematics and bankster logic working against you.
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Genesis
Posts: 131439
Incept: 2007-06-26
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I think Bernanke and Obama are about to have a bleeding hemorrhoid explode out of the cavity that they most-often speak from.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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