I was thinking that was April 4, 2000. I call it the crash that didn't happen. I still had a CME feed on NDX and SPX quotes. Down limit, open back up down limit on the NDX. You couldn't get out. That was around noon here in Texas. There was a point on the chart that dip violated that my technical knowledge at the time said was supposed to remain intact if the market was going to hold up. The Dow had opened up over 100 points and went down in sympathy, then the closing rally. I remember the floor of the exchange cheered. Following that break, the Dow would still rally to 11,400 a few times, but the Nasdaq never made it to 3000 again after it broke that level later in the year.

There was a guy on BSTV today who had been on Green Mountain. He is off it now, after it blew, but his reasoning sounded more like the reasoning of a day trader than an analyst. The company is supposed to lose a patent in the fall, so it appears, from what this guy said. I don't even know what this company is other than a coffee company, but how can you own a stock at high value that is going to lose its patent, opening the door to SBUX to move in on their territory? This is speculation the story holds up, not a long term investment. Seems a lot of these stocks fall in that model, own the story as long as it goes on, but it ends suddenly. I go to a lot of baseball games and I coined a phrase, nothing ends more suddenly than a baseball game. The trailing team can get hits, score runs, foul off pitches, but when strike 3 hits or the final out is made in another fashion, it is over. With 2 outs and 2 strikes, the time frame is anywhere from a second to several minutes, but all of a sudden, its over. This seems to be the case on these trades as well. We don't know when the umpire, the market is going to call "you're out".

i'm 95% in a cash account IRA that makes like 0.01% . Better than -25% i guess,

but Ben & Hank are inflating me down ~20% a year.
At local grocery store just last week i put a jar of Kraft mayonnaise back on the shelf because it was 6 bucks. Lady in next aisle over cracked up when she heard my "That's an outrage - I won't pay it !"

What's a financially illiterate plodder to do ?

Will this coming "deflation" of whch you speak be just in stocks or will mayonnaise and automobile tires come back down too?

a.

I thought this was how you kept up with inflation?

At the risk of being cliched. This time it is different. There is massive central bank intervention going on in a completely rigged market where HFT makes up the vast majority of volume in the market. It really is different this time. Of course the difference could be a blow up of the government instead of the markets.

Just out of curiosity, what were other indicators showing at the time and leading up to the crash when compared against today? i.e. ^VIX etc....

Are we seeing similar patterns emerge?

A much more substantial company than those is PRU; and they're down 10+ percent right now (earnings came in at $1.56 vs. $1.71 expected).

"This time it is different. There is massive central bank intervention going on in a completely rigged market where HFT makes up the vast majority of volume in the market".....

Fleckenstein hasn't been willing to pull the trigger because of imminent QE3. When that happens it may not have the desired effect this time even though we have been conditioned otherwise. Yet it is understandable, with all the control fraud still in the system, why one should be very patient when shorting.

Having been on the wrong end of the manipulators more than I could ever have imagined possible, I am not sure I have enough fortitude left over to try it again. Having lucked out today on GMCR, I am tempted to be a glutton for punishment once more, but if I do so it will only be after five bottles of pepto bismol.

Analog nobody can say, because no one really knows.

When you could somewhat "trust" the market, and after the "trend became your friend", you could short things like CRM with impunity, i.e. wait for some "dead fish" (Fleck's term) to upgrade and then short it after the huge gap up. Note today's trading, after upgrade, almost produced an "island reversal".

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CRM

All the "momo" stocks are fair game after the trend reversal.

At this point what does it really matter?

1) The fed will just print aka enter it into the JPMorgan account with a key stroke and JPMorgan will just buy stocks with counterfeit money. At this point do they even tell the Fed that they are adding to this account since it is their account they already have the username and password.

2) If I leave my money in cash see #1 I will be losing 20% per year in inflation.

3) If I buy gold its value will go up but when I want to buy something they will only give me worthless money back which I will still not be able to buy anything with.

4) See 1 but the bank is buying 1000 year maturity 0% balloon payment bonds and then lending it back out at a 30:1 leverage so there is more money entering the market without any assets backing it up and hey who cares if they fail the Fed will just enter more cash into their balance sheet to make them whole at the same time making the government guarantee this loan to the bank. Then the bank will give some of this counterfeit money back to the government aka the 535 Mr. & Mrs. Hankies to get reelected to be able to print more counterfeit money and guarantee it on behalf of the tax payer who is not paying their fair share.

5) Hey did you see unemployment went down. Good news on TV hey dancing with tards is back on!!!!!

Disclaimer I will be voting for a Mr. and/or Mrs. Hankie in the next election.

Analog--try this: http://culinaryarts.about.com/od/saladdr....

We will be doing more of this kind of thing, because each time my wife and I go to the store I say something to the effect of, 'the Hell with this!'

QE3 would cause the market to crash, don't bet on Ben doing it to pump the market.

Plenty of other stocks out there that look similar. Check out CHK and in fact the whole oil sector looks like it is rolling over.

Don't expect gold and silver to save you if there is a crash. Margin calls anyone!

Little tremors on MA and V; Skul holders got skul-effed today.

Oh and that is a flag flyin on my Appl 10 day ?
With bollis compressing too. 560 or 600 is coming soon..after that could be a big bear summer unless they are just messin with us brainiacs.

And, please don't forget the monkey...

Quote:

There is massive central bank intervention going on in a completely rigged market where HFT makes up the vast majority of volume in the market.

I agree and I honestly don't see a crash happening anytime soon, at least not before the November elections, and certainly NOT while the current actors Geithner, Bernanke et al, are in place! They will do everything in their power to keep things from falling apart.

When was the last crash, a September before the 2008 elections? With the same actors in place?

Quote:

"QE3 would cause the market to crash, don't bet on Ben doing it to pump the market."

I think in the short term it will pump the market. But it will more so pump commodity prices (more than QE2) and that will wrap around to massive margin collapses.

Oh, that second chart. The NASD one. Wasn't it late Feb of 2000 when Kramer made his famous 'buy it all with both hands' recommendation?

If Ben announced tomorrow he is going to QE3 or buy MBS's, what would you buy? That should answer most of the questions about why it won't happen.

Also, Ben has no more short term bonds to sell to continue the twist till the middle of summer let alone into the election.

What's left, the Gold standard???

The end game is nearing.

There are more charts broken like SNDK, DECK and recently RVBD (Riverbed), VCLK (valueclick), MITK, MXWL.

From financials

Quote:

Prudential(PRU) closed down 10% to $54.69 and share were the worst performing on the S&P 500 Index.

Late Wednesday, the company reported a quarterly loss of $988 million owing to a $1.5 billion charge relating to currency fluctuations and derivative impacts, mostly linked to the Japanese yen’s decline against the U.S. dollar.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/allstat....

so much hope that the fed can do something. Place your bets.

Just as the Facebook IPO comes out too...5/18. Could be an interesting summer.

As of Jan this year...

Quote:

Salesforce.com (CRM) has the highest P/E ratio. Its P/E ratio is 5060 [WT ever loving F???] and its forward P/E ratio is also quite high: 62.47...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/317698-1....

Oh no, no bubble that I can see...

How on earth can you have your TPE be so much higher than your forward. Do the analyst even try to make it look reasonable any more.

I have always thought that forward PE's were just a bunch of bull****.