Jobless Claims: What's That Smell? in [Market-Ticker]

Posted 2012-05-03 08:52
by Karl Denninger
in Employment

Jobless Claims: What's That Smell?

In the week ending April 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 365,000, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 392,000. The 4-week moving average was 383,500, an increase of 750 from the previous week's revised average of 382,750.

Eh, maybe not. But 365,000 is still not a good number, although it's down quite a bit from last week. The real problem was the immediate reaction that "the previous few weeks was all seasonal and/or weather factors."

Uh huh... I won't take that bet.

The big table shows a massive drop of roll-offs from the extended benefit rolls, which could be new hires -- but are likely not.

My forecast for tomorrow is +100k, +/- 50, with government negative being the material adjustment over ADP.

I don't think the market is going to like it either.

Discussion below (registration required to post)

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User Info	Jobless Claims: What's That Smell? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Eli Posts: 7264 Incept: 2007-09-10	All those people rolling off the rolls is what is currently slowing down the economy. It is cutting people off from the free money government tit. And the government has done nothing to improve the business environment and clear the bad debts. There is not going to be a place for the unemployed to find work until the debt over hang is taken away. ---------- If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever. George Orwell Last modified: 2012-05-03 09:31:51 by eli 2012-05-03 09:28:24 Permalink
Enapa Posts: 1177 Incept: 2008-01-25	Californias fed ed extension expires may 15. Ayone unemployed longer than 79 weeks will automatically be cut off. Im sure somehow that will turn into the unemployment numbers getting better even though none of them will get jobs and now i will be competing with even more people for the remaining few jobs left here. 2012-05-03 10:06:16 From PDA Permalink
Wearedoomed Posts: 3611 Incept: 2009-01-14 slightly red state	---------- Lies, all of it. 2012-05-03 10:20:58 Permalink
Vegasradar Posts: 8721 Incept: 2007-07-11	Enapa I was going to post about CA Fed Unemployment ending too how do you know it is those longer than 79 weeks? is that how long normal unemployment lasts for? I got the impression that the Federal unemployment was ended for everyone regardless of how long you have been on it. clever how they wrote that law, UE could be at 50% but as long as it is under 10% higher than 3 years ago no more Fed assistance. http://www.sacbee.com/2012/05/02/4460536.... ---------- Be the change you want to see in the world. ~Mahatma Gandhi 2012-05-03 10:48:18 Permalink
Eli Posts: 7264 Incept: 2007-09-10	Obama and the idiots in congress put a bandaid on a gaping wound. From the article 93,000 people are set to get kicked off unemployment benefits a week from now. The article is funny because it is says the reason is that the unemployment rate has improved. Pay no attention to how the unemployment rate is measure, just know everything is getting better. ---------- If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever. George Orwell 2012-05-03 11:54:45 Permalink
Enapa Posts: 1177 Incept: 2008-01-25	Vegas the fed-ed extension is the final 20 week extension making unemployment last a max of 79 weeks instead of 99 in california. 2012-05-03 17:50:24 From PDA Permalink